Tropical Cyclone Ingrid - North Queensland - March 2005

Note: To view all images on this page in full size, please click on the thumnails at the right hand side of the page.

Final Track Map of Ingrid: Click on thumbnail at right:

Geoff Mackley Reports Live from Kalumburu

An e-Mail History of Ingrid:

I find it very interesting and informative to follow e-mail discussions about cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons.  It is especially interesting to follow the sidetracks which open up as long term storm watchers are reminded of the storms of yesteryear.  One can learn a great deal about the forecasting and tracking of these exciting systems.   read on and enjoy!

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/06/2005 12:01  Subject: TC 21P/RAE and TC INGRID
The SPAC carries on .
TC 21P/RAE is on the charts and TC INGRID has just been named by BRISBANE.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/06/2005 15:47   Subject: TC 21P/RAE , TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
TC 22P/INGIRD deserves attention since it is in the Coral Sea an area which on the whole has been "performing" below expectations for the last seasons and since the first MI data are "good" with a clear cut centre . The cyclone seems to have potential .
A weak TD ( the rule for many weeks now near the Mascarene Islands) has dumped 100/143mm of rain in 24h in several parts of Mauritius and now is lying southeast of the island.
at last the eastern half of the South Indian ocean basin may come to life . A strong cyclone is foreacast to develop off WA owing to the last two UK MET runs.
Patrick

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 10.5S 122.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.03.2005 10.5S 122.4E WEAK
12UTC 08.03.2005 12.8S 122.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2005 13.8S 120.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2005 14.6S 119.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.03.2005 15.4S 118.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.03.2005 16.1S 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.03.2005 17.2S 115.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.03.2005 18.5S 114.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.8S 121.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.03.2005 9.8S 121.4E WEAK
12UTC 07.03.2005 10.5S 122.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.03.2005 11.4S 122.3E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.03.2005 12.3S 121.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2005 13.6S 120.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.03.2005 13.8S 119.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2005 14.5S 118.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.03.2005 15.2S 116.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.03.2005 15.6S 114.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2005 16.3S 114.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2005 17.1S 113.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

From: Carl Smith To: "Phil Smith"
Date: 03/06/2005 22:13   Subject: Re: current.htm - 22P and other changes > now severe Cat 3!
Hi Phil.
Thanks, updated, and made some corrections - also BoM changed the coast wind link - all
links below. [edited]
Carl.

From: Carl Smith To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]:
Date: 03/06/2005 23:17   Subject: Ingrid now Cat 3
Hi All.
Ingrid is now a severe cyclone at intensity AU Cat 3 [= hurricane] according to the BoM - latest TC Bulletin & Shipping Warning below.
Carl.
IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00pm EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005
Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid has intensified to a category 3 cyclone in the northern Coral Sea.
At 11pm EST, severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, category 3 with central pressure 975 hPa, was located near 13.6S 148.7E, about 430 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown. It is now near stationary.
Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to remain slow moving over the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.
At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.
The next information Bulletin will be issued at 5 am EST Monday 7 March.
[snip]
WEATHER BRISBANE

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/07/2005 04:42   Subject: TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
as expected TC 22P/INGRID has been intensifying rapidly and maybe once again the "MI rule" will be vindicated...
Anyway the northeast coast of Australia might be in for serious business next few days...
What I alluded to with the UK MET runs for the possible cyclone off Western Autralia in the South Indian seems on the way. FNMOC has now it as 93S INVEST and last EIR data suggest the TD is already well depicted.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/07/2005 04:56   Subject: Re: TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
The MI AQUA1 at 1502z is very impressive for TC 22P/INGRID.
The TRMM at 1730Z is less so but the 37 channel still depicts well the centre.
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
Patrick

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/07/2005 20:17   Subject: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all, Keeping an eye on S.T.C Ingrid up north a bit. Might give us the rain we need for sure.
Shane. Townsville.

From: "The Mayos" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 03:57   Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Shane and All, Did you see this picture of CYclone Ingrid. Judy
[snip]: http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov/shownh.php3?img_id=12751

From: Carl Smith To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]:
Date: 03/08/2005 05:08   Subject: TC Ingrid now Cat 5!
Hi All.
Ingrid has become a very severe Cat 5 cyclone and appears to be headed for Cape York, perhaps N of Cooktown somewhere.
Latest warnings below.
Regards, Carl.

IDQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this message.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:38am on Tuesday the 8th of March 2005
A Tropical Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Port Douglas and Lockhart River.
At 5am Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid, category 5, with central pressure 930 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.0 south longitude 147.9 east, which is 330 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown. Ingrid is currently drifting slowly west northwest at 6 km/h.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is expected to continue moving slowly towards the north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to increase along the north Queensland coast, and gales are expected to develop between Port Douglas and Lockhart River during Wednesday.
People between Port Douglas and Lockhart River should consider actions they will need to take as this Severe Tropical Cyclone moves closer to the coast and listen to the next advice at 11am EST Tuesday 8 March.
[snip]

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 05:23   Subject: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Hi All, Looking at the Cairns and Townsville loops this morning I noticed the loops changing from the old look to a new style.
Cyclone Ingrid moving WNW at 6klm/hr. Too far north for ant action. I am going up there Thrusday to take piccies if I can get there.
Grey overcast day today.
Cheers Shane

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph."  To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 05:42    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
I'll give you all a on hand description if she makes landfall near here. ( Cape Tribulation)
Kelly

From: Jeff Callaghan  To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:07    Subject: Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
For midgets or near midgets like Ingrid we use a a higher CP for a given intensity. eg Ada in the Whitsunday Islands in 1970 had a CP measured of 960hPa but did cat 4 damage. Likewise Tracy had an high CP of 952hPa.
We wrote this up (with Roger Smith) in the Sept 1998 issue of the Aust Met Mag. on The relationship between Max surface winds and CP in TCs
Jeff
At 21:14 7/03/2005 +0100, you wrote:
Hi there,
is there anybody within the group who knows perfectly the different Dvorak tables used by the different WMO centres in the SH?
There is already a difference between PERTH and DARWIN and BRISBANE and ... FIJI.
The only two which agree "perfectly" are MFR and PERTH.
For instance a 930mb TC for MFR/PERTH equals 100kt but for BRISBANE it yields 115kt. FIJI and DARWIN also use higher winds for higher MSLP compared to MFR and PERTH.
What a nightmare! of course I rely first and foremost on the 01mn values from JTWC hence there is some sense of uniformity for the SH ( barring the human subjectivity...).
MFR thought ( and they were partly right) that changing from 0.8 to 0.88 ( conversion factor from 1mn into 10mn) would make them closer to the other centres but differences still persist.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:40    Subject: Re: Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Thanks Jeff.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:48    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
and the "MI rule" has been borne out again.
TC 22P/INGRID is now at Super Typhoon intensity ( 130kt) and is the strongest cyclone in the Coral Sea since ..................................................................................................................?
NAMESEASONMONTHOCEAN BASIN(*)MAX INTENSITYPOSITION AT MAX INTENSITY
ZOE2002/2003DECSPAC155KT/ T7.511.7 S/ 170.7 E
AGNIELLE1995/1996NOVSIO150KT/ T7.5-12.8 S/ 84.4 E
RON1997/1998JANSPAC145KT/ T7.0+12.9 S/175.5 W
GERALDA1993/1994JANSIO145KT/ T7.0+14.5 S/ 57.3 E
INIGO2002/2003APRSIO140KT/ T7.012.6 S/ 115.8 E
KALUNDE2002/2003MARSIO140KT/ T7.014.0 S/ 70.4 E
ERICA2002/2003MARSPAC140KT/ T7.019.6 S/ 161.3 E
HARY2001/2002MARSIO140KT/ T7.014.7 S/ 50.8 E
FREDERIC1998/1999MARSIO140KT/ T7.017.6 S/ 91.7 E
SUSAN1997/1998JANSPAC140KT/ T7.014.4 S/170.0 E
ITELLE1995/1996APRSIO140KT/ T7.015.0 S/ 63.5 E
FRAN1991/1992MARSPAC140KT/ T7.017.3 S/170.8 E
ORSON1988/1989APRSIO140KT/ T7.018.6 S/116.3 E
ANNE1987/1988JANSPAC140KT/ T7.015.0 S/165.4 E
THELMA1998/1999DECSIO135KT/ T7.0-11.6 S/129.2 E
BONITA1995/1996JANSIO135KT/ T7.0-18.7 S/ 54.3 E
ALIBERA1989/1990DECSIO135KT/ T7.0-10.9 S/ 55.6 E
HINA1984/1985MARSPAC135KT/ T7.0-15.2 S/173.7 E
DOVI2002/2003FEBSPAC130KT/ T6.5+18.3 S/ 166.6 W
DINA2001/2002JANSIO130KT/ T6.5+18.0 S/ 64.2 E
PAUL1999/2000APRSIO130KT/ T6.5+13.7 S/100.1 E
JOHN1999/2000DECSIO130KT/ T6.5+19.6 S/117.3 E
GWENDA1998/1999APRSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.4 S/116.8 E
LITANNE1993/1994MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.9 S/ 56.2 E
ESAU1991/1992MARSPAC130KT/ T6.5+13.7 S/159.4 E
BELLA1990/1991JANSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.7 S/ 61.8 E
ALEX1989/1990MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.0 S/100.3 E
HARRY1988/1989FEBSPAC130KT/ T6.5+19.0 S/157.9 E
GASITAO1987/1988MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+16.4 S/ 63.3 E
ANDRY1983/1984DECSIO130KT/ T6.5+10.9 S/ 49.5 E
BENI2002/2003JANSPAC125KT/ T6.516.5 S/ 162.7 E
CHRIS2001/2002JANSIO125KT/ T6.519.2 S/120.3 E
ROSITA1999/2000APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.4 S/122.3 E
HUDAH1999/2000APRSIO125KT/ T6.516.6 S/ 56.9 E
VANCE1998/1999MARSIO125KT/ T6.517.3 S/116.2 E
PANCHO1996/1997JANSIO125KT/ T6.513.0 S/ 91.0 E
BELLAMINE1996/1997NOVSIO125KT/ T6.512.4 S/ 78.7 E
OLIVIA1995/1996APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.6 S/114.6 E
CHLOE1994/1995APRSIO125KT/ T6.515.0 S/123.7 E
MARLENE1994/1995APRSIO125KT/ T6.516.4 S/ 69.4 E
REWA1993/1994JANSPAC125KT/ T6.517.9 S/154.0 E
JOURDANNE1992/1993APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.1 S/ 75.8 E
PREMA1992/1993MARSPAC125KT/ T6.516.4 S/168.7 E
VAL 1991/1992DECSPAC125KT/ T6.513.8 S/172.5 W
SINA1990/1991NOVSPAC125KT/ T6.516.6 S/174.8 E
HANITRA1988/1989FEBSIO125KT/ T6.513.8 S/ 82.4 E
KATHY1983/1984MARSPAC125KT/ T6.514.9 S/137.9 E
GUILLAUME2001/2002FEBSIO120KT/ T6.5-18.2 S/ 59.5 E
ANDO2000/2001JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-17.8 S/ 54.7 E
NORMAN1999/2000MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-19.7 S/106.2 E
CONNIE1999/2000JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-16.3 S/ 57.0 E
TIFFANY1997/1998JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-19.0 S/116.0 E
GAVIN1996/1997MARSPAC120KT/ T6.5-21.0 S/176.7 E
DRENA1996/1997JANSPAC120KT/ T6.5-15.5 S/159.2 E
DANIELLA1996/1997DECSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.2 S/ 56.1 E
NADIA1993/1994MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-12.9 S/ 55.4 E
KINA1992/1993DECSPAC120KT/ T6.5-14.1 S/172.6 E
FARIDA1991/1992FEBSIO120KT/ T6.5-18.9 S/ 75.7 E
HEATHER1991/1992MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-15.1 S/ 89.4 E
NEVILLE1991/1992APRSIO120KT/ T6.5-11.4 S/128.5 E
IRNA1991/1992APRSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.6 S/ 87.3 E
GRAHAM1991/1992DECSIO120KT/ T6.5-11.1 S/ 97.7 E
AIVU1988/1989APRSPAC120KT/ T6.5-17.9 S/148.8 E
SANDY1984/1985MARSPAC120KT/ T6.5-15.1 S/138.5 E
DAMIA1981/1982JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.5 S/ 75.0 E
OLGA1980/1981JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-16.0 S/ 88.4 E
(*)
SIO ( WEST OF 135° EAST) > South Indian ocean > total : 45 (68.2%)
SPAC( EAST OF 135° EAST)> South Pacific ocean > total : 21 (31.8%)
WEST OF 105° EAST : 32 (48.5%)
BETWEEN 105/135° EAST : 13 (19.7%)
BETWEEN 135/180° EAST : 18 (27.3%)
BETWEEN 180/170° WEST : 2 (3%)
EAST OF 170° WEST : 1(1.5%)
DATA : 1980/1981 to 2002 /2003: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER(JTWC) BASED ON BEST TRACK DATA
[snip]

From: "Bruce Harper" To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 07:14   Subject: RE: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Patrick,
While I cannot reconcile some of the comparisons you gave below I can provide some insight into the various systems.
Basically, Brisbane is fairly similar to Atkinson and Holiday (aka JTWC, Dvorak WNP etc) modified by 0.88 to give 10min, as developed by Geoff Crane in 1985. However their tabulation used for operations suffers a little from 10kph interval rounding.
Darwin is quite different and uses a curve developed by Geoff Love in 1985 (he is now the Director of the BoM) that was designed to be biased towards "midget" systems as a result of their encounter with Tracy in 1974 and some later small and intense systems. It is actually similar to the Dvorak Atlantic relationship.
However, as Jeff Callaghan points out, Brisbane typically vary their assessment based on the size of the system. This is something I also support in principle but unfortunately no one has come up with a systematic procedure for doing that yet so it is important that full documentation of such matters end up in the databases for the future. I assume that Ingrid is being treated in that way at the moment as 930 hPa would not normally take it to Cat 5.
Of course, relying mostly on Dvorak (wind and/or pressure) you simply cannot be too definitive, especially in forecast mode. You can read all about such issues on http://www.uq.net.au/seng/download/ where there is an extensive report I did on these and related matters a couple of years ago. It will probably tell you more than you want to know but it might spark your interest in a number of topics ....
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 07:19    Subject: Re: RE: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Bruce,
Thank You!
BR, Patrick

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 08:40    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly.
Just had a good look at the structure of super TC Ingrid central pressure appears to have reached 908hpa and has achieved cat 5, winds- 200 to 300kph!
Ingrid has become a very dangerous storm and it will be worth keeping a very close look at its tracking over the next 12 hours and appears to have become one of the strongest TC's in recent years, oddly there does not seem to be very much media interest in this storm?. The central core of destructive winds appear to be between 30 and 50 kilometres out from the inner edge of the eye wall. Ingrid has a very symmetrical eye and looks impressive on sat pic...Good luck..regards Clyve H.

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph." To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 08:58    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Thanks Clyve,
I'm just starting to pick up the edges of rain on the new radar. Interesting though pressure has been climbing since yesterday lunch 1015 now. My US navy site has her grounding between Cape Melville and North of Cooktown. We hope Awesome Nasa shot. My house is up the hill backed into a valley with ocean views, so this could be pretty scarey. All our tourists are being evacuated.
cheers

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:36    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly..
An interesting observation in regard to pressure..The central area if Ingrid has a very tight pressure gradient falling from near 1000hpa to 908hpa at the centre over less than about 100 kilometres..There is a ridge up the QLD coast but appears to be 'flattening' this set up may help keep Indrid on a more westerly track at this stage regards Clyve H

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:41    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Kelly,
do you have a digital camera?
when typhoons hit here, depending on how dangerous it gets, I like to get out in it and record it.
Our last typhoon here was Kompasu and I put up movies and pictures and a lot of other info at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/kompasu.htm for those interested.
Meanwhile There are a lot of links to details concerning TC INGRID up on my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm and I might decide to set up an Ingrid page if enough info comes in.
Phil
<><

From: Robert To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:48    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
NASSA`S Terra and Aqua has got some great shots! http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?Australia3

From: Carl Smith To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:59    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Looking at the 256km Cairns radar loop, the new radar scheme is very easy on my eye - I find the contrast adequate and the overall look is far more 'natural' compared to the old scheme - however I am using a G3 Mac which may make a difference as to how the colours are rendered.
Regards, Carl.

From: "Matt Pearce" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:00    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Clyve
Just wondering where you are getting the 908hpa from...all the BoM information says that Ingrid has a central pressure of 930hpa atm.
Certainly an amazing looking TC whatever its pressure is!
Matt

From: "Tuan Phan"  To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:14   Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi everyone,
The 00z anal has TC Ingrid at 930hPa. The Brisbane office is responsible for the official forecast and analysis at this stage.
I only eyeballed the TC and didn't do any formal calculations on the TC at all. However, thought the pressure would have been a bit lower than 930hPa (given it was already 930hPa for the 18z anal 6 hours ago) and the fact that the eye has grown larger, and the TC appears to have strengthen.
I'll be doing the 06z in a few hours (someone else did the 00z anal) and it would be interesting to see what the Qld office analyse it at. There's a good chance that the 920hPa forecast for tomorrow morning may get blown out of the water. Regardless of its pressure, Ingrid has an amazing figure - so
well rounded and perfectly circular shaped too!
tuan

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:27    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi matt The BOM this morning estimated 920hpa...however after checking the various sat picks and sniffing about the eye region and applying some of the BOM formula for estimating central pressure 'I' have estimated the central pressure at near 908hpa this level would satisfy what I have estimated (as
an independent amateur) I used the same principles yesterday and achieved 932 to 935 when the BOM later went for 930hpa...also the pressure field has become very tight with massive pressure falls over just about 100klm this now introduces a very localised and efficient energy transfer process
especially in regard to provision of heating through enhanced latent release processes, this combined with very efficient but tight upper divergence and the appearance of the symmetrical eye indicate a 'super depressive pressure field'....found some good reading though in a publication climate and weather in the tropics by Herbert Riehl pages 394 to 542...best regards Clyve Herbert PS the Monterey sight now estimates INGRID at 910hpa......

From: "Keith Barnett" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:28    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
This storm would have to be the most intense to threaten Queensland since the Bathurst Bay hurricane (1899..down to 918 mb)?

From: Anthony Cornelius To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:50    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Clyve,
Have to agree - using similar techniques I got around 910hPa, but I noted on a TC list that a few of the BoM guys are on that there was a little flack thrown at the BoM about the inconsistent use of the Djovarak technique. One of the things that needs to be noted is that this is a very small TC (similar to those you might see in the GoC or around Darwin), which are traditionally the smallest, most intense TCs in the world! Hence the pressure gradient provides the winds...so wondering if that made them err on conservativity and kept it at 930 in the warnings too? Would be estimating wind gusts exceeding 300km/h by now...
Poor little Nemo won't be getting to Sydney Harbour in a hurry...
AC

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph." To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 12:55    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Yes I have a 5 megapixl. I also printed that nasa shot on our commercial printer Fu--ing incredible shot. I'll see if we can get any local footage.
----- Original Message -----
From: Phil Smith To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Sent: Tuesday, March 08, 2005 11:41 AM  Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Kelly,
do you have a digital camera?
[snip]

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 14:18    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all,
The only two TC's below 910 Hpa according to my sources are the Bathurst Bay Cyclone in 1899 and the Mackay cyclone in 1914.Both did awesome damage despite the very sparse population at the time.I thinlk there was also a Townsville cyclone in the 1920's but I don not know how intense it
was.Ingrid looks likely to cause a huge storm surge and a lot of wind damage when it crosses the coast.
Gavin O'Brien/  SSWW/  Canberra

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 14:34    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
It is usual for pressure to be higher than normal prior to a cyclone, indeed , I was always suspicious when the Barometer was higher than usual in the wet season when I lived in the tropics. Having experienced Althea (Townsville) and a Philippines Typhoon neither with the power of Ingrid, I
would not like to be in the danger zone of this one. Good luck Kelly.
Gavin/  Canberra
>From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
>Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid   Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2005 12:36:17 +1100
>Hi Kelly..
>An interesting observation in regard to pressure..The central area if Ingrid has a very tight pressure gradient falling from near 1000hpa to 908hpa at the centre over less than about 100 kilometres...[snip]

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 16:55    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly and other Ingrid watchers.
At the very latest, Cyclone Ingrid is likely to cross near Cape Melville North of Cooktown.
Also with it crossing near Cape Melville, will it possibly be recording the highest wind gust ever observed on Australian mainland? And supersede Vance's record in 1999 at 267klm/hr.
Today in Townsville it is overcast with high cloud from the outflow of the storm.
Looking at the structure of this storm it certainly looks impressive. Not many reach Cat 5 status up there.
Regards Shane. Townsville.

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 17:17    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all.
Apologies, Cape Melville isn't recorded, I had it confused with Cape Flattery. I bit my tongue lol.
Shane.

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 19:20    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Hi Shane,
I would be very careful if you want to be at the landfall of Ingrid as she is a very dangerous storm indeed .Looks like a huge storm surge which might go Kilometres inland and very powerful winds.This is one I'd miss if I was up there.Althea was bad enough but this one is much more powerful.I remember what Althea did to Townsville and she would have been a Cat 3.
Gavin
>From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
>Subject: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ??? Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2005 07:23:21 +1000
[snip]
>Cyclone Ingrid moving WNW at 6klm/hr. Too far north for ant action. I am going up there Thrusday to take piccies if I can get there.
[snip]
>Cheers Shane

From: "Super Elmo" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 19:35    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
It is going to be interesting to see Ingrid on the new RADAR map when it hits the coast.
Looks like it is going to be a nasty one.
Kane.

From: Robert To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 20:45    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
If i lived in the path of the TC i would have got out!... I don`t mind the new radar images.. I don`t like the color`s used for the background tho...
Gavin O'Brien wrote:

From: Neville Gibb To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 21:13    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
On Tue, 8 Mar 2005, Clyve H. wrote:
>...oddly there does not seem to be very much media interest in this storm?...
Yeah, here in NZ ,Tuesday evening's TV1 weather presenter said TC Ingrid may cause a few showers along the N Qld coast. Talk about understatement!
Seems this has the potential to become a national disaster!
Neville

From: Carl Smith To: "Phil Smith"
Date: 03/08/2005 22:35   Subject: Re: current.htm - Ingrid #9 header - watch zone extended
Hi Phil.
>Hi Carl,
[snip]
>I reckon the folks around C Melville might find it so windy tomorrow that it would blow the sugar out of their tea!
My friends are living at [property name edited out], a 150 acre property N of Bloomfield and S of Cooktown at the base of a mountain, which is exposed to the SE - I also lived there for some years during the mid-1980's.
They live in very tropical housing - Tony has only two walls on his house to protect it from the prevailing southeasterlies, although he does have solar powered satellite broadband - John is a technophobe and lives in a pocket of rainforest in a house which has no walls.
The original farm house is about 100 years old and is full of termites.
Tony is taking his wife and kids to a substantial shed in Rossville owned by his brother Don for the next couple of days - the way Don builds things may not look great in an aesthetic sense, but he is very aware of how structurally sound things should be in a cyclone prone region, so it should hold up to just about anything.
John is staying put come hell or high water - he is a recluse who lives entirely off his garden and the tropical fruit orchard, and almost never leave the property for any reason.
BTW, have a look at how fast the rain is flying through the radar loop at http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml
Carl.
>Phil
><><

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 15:46    Subject: [austpacwx] T.C Ingrid.
Hi Gavin and all.
Ingrid is too far north now to even get there due to the road infrastructure.
We had heavy rain this morning but now all fine, only high level outflow cirrus at the moment.
Looking forward to going to Cairns for the day to get some pics. I have the day off so what a perfect time to spend it up in Cairns. Better be home by 4pm to pick up the Mrs and baby back from Brisbane.
Was a lovely week so far hehehhehehhee.
All over the Townsville Bulletin and Cairns Post there was much media attention about the storm. I have kept them for memories of this rarity storm.
Hopefully I can snap some nice pics and post them to the website for all to see.
Cheers All.

From: Roger Edson To: tcdg
Date: 03/09/2005 17:33    Subject: Re: New page for recording INGRID
Hi Phil,
I have one. This is an earlier image of Ingrid that I really like since it really shows the 'classic' signature of a Cat5 TC in the MI.
BTW, watching the cold dome develop in the IRbd curve was pretty amazing during that 12 hour period, as well!
Roger
--- Phil Smith  wrote:
> Hi all,
> As INGRID approaches the East coast of Cape York it seems to be an interesting enough system to record some info about it. Therefore I have commenced a page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/ingrid.htm so that I can do just that.
> I shall pick out some relevant e-mails from this and other groups, but if any of you have anything of interest regarding TC INGRID that you can forward to me, I shall be most appreciative.
> Thanks,
> Phil
> <><

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:03    Subject: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi all...Just heard the SBS weather forecast (about 9.55pm) with an interesting comment by the announcer...quote..."Queenslander can now breath a sigh of relief with the downgrading of TC Ingrid which will now only bring gales on Thursday morning with gusts to 250kph!!!!!!!....would someone please send help in respect to these announcements...regards Clyve H

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:13    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi Clyve,
These fools should be given a swift kick where it hurts.A strong letter to SBS management by people or communities which experince Ingrid might bring them to their senses , particularly if some one sues them for damages!
Gavin /SSWW /Canberra

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:13    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi Clyve, Maybe from whatever planet this guy is from, average wind speeds must be averaging 200klm/hr on a normal day.
Cheers Shane.

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:22    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
At 10:13 PM 9/03/2005, you wrote:
>Hi Clyve, Maybe from whatever planet this guy is from, average wind speeds must be averaging 200klm/hr on a normal day.
Maybe he's from Saturn or Neptune where winds can be up to 1800-2000 km/h ;-)
250 km/h is no bloody picnic! (sheesh)
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:56    Subject: [austpacwx] WA Cyclone Formation.
Hi all, while all the focus is on Ingrid right now, W.A looks as though it will be their turn for action. A tropical formation located off the N.W coast is expected to become a Tropical cyclone within 6 to 18 hours.
Also near the Solomon Islands another T.D is moving S.S.W. March is surely becoming the most active month of the Cyclone season for sure.
Shane.

[Editor's Note: I shall include references to Cyclone Willy here as well, since it is all happening together]

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/09/2005 22:19   Subject: Here's 23S ready to go
Looks like one on either side of Australia!
The sat imagery says it all...
I like the analysis of the wind field that matches the fairly large light center (for now). Intensity should come with a tightening up of this area.
Roger
Roger Edson
Tropical Meteorologist

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG:
Date: 03/10/2005 00:48    Subject: Ingrid - Weipa radar
Hi All.
Ingrid has undergone significant intensification during the last few hours.
You can watch Ingrid come ashore during the next few hours near Lockhart River on the Weipa radar loop at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR182.loop.shtml
Regards,  Carl.

From: Carl Smith To: Phil Smith
Date: 03/10/2005 01:43    Subject: Willy map online
Hi Phil.
I've put a map of Willy online ... sounds almost crude!
Carl.
[Editor's Note: The Willy map is carried on both our sites at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm and http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm]

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:11    Subject: Re: Here's 23S ready to go
Hi Roger,
this is the one the UK MET model has been forecasting for several days and that I mentioned at the time.
The model has been shifting the predicted track more westwards away from WA.
Let's wait & see.
Cheers
Patrick
> Message du 09/03/05 15:25  De : "Roger Edson"
> A : "Typhoon Gang TCDG"     Objet : Here's 23S ready to go
> Looks like one on either side of Australia!
> The sat imagery says it all... [snip]

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:12    Subject: Re: Ingrid - Weipa radar
Thanks Carl.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:35    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
Potent without a doubt and compact.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:56    Subject: TC WILLY
Upcoming TC 23S has been named WILLY by PERTH.
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:13S119E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1614UTC 9 MARCH 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 995 hPa located at 1600UTC
Within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal one south [13.1S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero east [118.0E]
and moving west at 8 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Tropical Cyclone Willy is expected to intensify with 30/40 knot winds causing
rough to very rough seas, moderate swell increasing to 45/60 knot winds by 10
March 1600UTC. Seas rising to high on an increasing swell.
At 0400UTC 10 March 13.2 south 115.9 east 985hPa
At 1600UTC 10 March 13.6 south 114.0 east 975hPa
Next warning issued at 2300 UTC 09 March 2005
WEATHER PERTH
Patrick

From: "Kane Quinnell" To: Phil Smith
Date: 03/10/2005 05:44    Subject: Ingrid crossing the coast for your web page.
____
From: Phil Smith  Sent: Wednesday, 9 March 2005 18:00
To: Aus-Pac-WX   Subject: [austpacwx] New page for TC INGRID info.
Hi all,
[snip]
I shall pick out some relevant e-mails from this and other groups, but if any of you have anything of interest regarding TC INGRID that you can forward to me, I shall be most appreciative.
Thanks,
Phil
<><

From: Michael Padua  To: Cyclone Group tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 07:07    Subject: 2nd NWP Storm forming???
Dear Jim and all,
It looks like as TCs Willy and Ingrid rotates clockwise down under, a new NWP storm is likely to develop in a couple of days as shown by MRF/GFS and NOGAPS model.
Will observe on this one. Mindanao shall be a threat on this one.
Any inputs on this one Jim?
Cheers,
Michael =;-)
--
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/10/2005 08:25    Subject: News on TC Ingrid
Dear All,
The following URLs point to news releases about TC Ingrid. Some interesting remarks in the first two, but basically it's all a massive non-event, so far. Simon Clarke & Phil Smith, you might want to look at these for your reports/web-pages.
Fears of heavy rain and flooding might not come to pass, as the latest Weipa radar-image shows only moderate rain at most. Still, that might change as the cyclone weakens.
Jeff C -- when was the last Cat-5 or equivalent to threaten the east coast of Qld? Must go back a fair way...
Regards,
Matthew S.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12488339-26618,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12489672-26618,00.html
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2005/03/10/1110316120415.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12498539-2,00.html

From: "Matt Pearce" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 09:39    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Willy
Willy certainly has good potential to bring some widespread useful rain to much of the western half of WA(and possibly southern Australia into next week). The key feature is the approach of the strong cold front and associated long wave trough towards the end of the weekend. This will strengthen the jetstream across WA, which will tap into outflow moisture from Willy. While the models disagree with the exact track of the cyclone(EC keeps it off the coast and GFS pulls it inland) they would both have good rainfall potential from Sunday onwards. Then as the jetstream strengthens across southern Australia next week and interacts with the deepening surface trough, there should be the chance of at least a light rainband developing.
Then of course there's the potential of Ingrid making its way right across to WA and following in Willy's footsteps...
Matt

From: Neville Gibb To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 10:22    Subject: [austpacwx] TC Willy
Just for the record...
IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 6:55 am WST on Thursday, 10 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 1] was located at 6am WST near 14.0S
117.5E, that is approximately 710 kilometres north of Port Hedland, and was
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours but will not
affect the WA coast within the next 48 hours.
The next advice will be issued at 1pm WST.
Best guesses?
Neville

From: "Bruce Harper" To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 10:23    Subject: RE: News on TC Ingrid
Matthew,
Assuming Jeff C is still a bit busy I'll answer that question:
"officially" possibly the 1918 "Innisfail" cyclone south of Cairns but the data is sparse
"unofficially" TC Aivu in 1989 (T7.5) but it became sheared and was cat 3 at landfall south of Ayr
Prior to that is the famous "Bathurst Bay" in 1899 at 914hPa measured, just south of where Ingrid passed.
At least Ingrid has now provided a good scenario as to how the Bathurst Bay storm may have formed so far north ie initial vorticity from the west and then reversing. Most storms forming north of Cooktown at those longitudes have tended to be rather weak.
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-tcdg On Behalf Of Matthew Saxby   Sent: Thursday, 10 March 2005 10:26 AM
> To: TCDG   Subject: News on TC Ingrid
> Dear All,
[snip]
> Jeff C -- when was the last Cat-5 or equivalent to threaten the east coast of Qld? Must go back a fair way...
> Regards,
> Matthew S.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 11:14    Subject: TC 23S/WILLY
Based on last MI I would be surprised if this TC would not intensify into an intense TC (100kt and more ) later on.
The forecast track is shifted more southward than anticipated and then PERTH has released a cyclone advice.
Patrick

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG:
Date: 03/10/2005 12:54    Subject: BoM quote of the month
Hi All.
If you were looking at the right time, you may have caught this piece of news from the BoM Perth:
IDW10800
UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 7:05am WST on Thursday the 10th of March 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins are current for TC Willy, please refer to latest bulletin. TC Willy is not expected to affect the coat within the next 48 hours.
No other tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next three days.
Regards,
Carl.

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 14:34    Subject: Re: News on TC Ingrid
Dear Bruce,
> I'll answer that question:
> "officially" possibly the 1918 "Innisfail" cyclone south of Cairns but the data is sparse
Yeah, well, AWS's were a bit thin on the ground in them thar days :) Though it is known from the damage that that one was a Cat-5, only one of three (that I know of) to have struck the E Qld coast at that intensity. (The other two are the Mackay Cyclone, also 1918, and Mahina of 1899). Good grief -- I had no idea it was so long since a cat-5 had actually threatened the coast.
> "unofficially" TC Aivu in 1989 (T7.5) but it became sheared and was cat 3 at landfall south of Ayr
I used to have a complete warning series on that one, till I lent them out and never got them back :( But I recall Aivu wasn't posted at Cat-5 in real-time, and was only post-analysed as one. At least Ingrid was a real-time cat-5. On the other hand, Aivu must have been a cat-5 when in full warning status. So the benchmark is therefore April 1989, rather than March 1918.
> Prior to that is the famous "Bathurst Bay" in 1899 at 914hPa measured, just south of where Ingrid passed.
...a.k.a. Mahina...
> At least Ingrid has now provided a good scenario as to how the Bathurst Bay storm may have formed so far north ie initial vorticity from the west and then reversing. Most storms forming north of Cooktown at those longitudes have tended to be rather weak.
Though I've always thought that Mahina formed well east of the Peninsula and travelled in from the E/NE. The wild and woolly "Douglas Mawson" cyclone of Mar-Apr 1923 is a case in point, even allowing for the fact that it looped through Torres Strait after coming from who-knows-where. That one was no damp squib, I have Hector Holthouse's account of it and I'm virtually certain it was Cat-3+. Quite a nasty storm. For the uninitiated, it gets its name from that of the small steamer it sank (w/out trace) in the Gulf of Carpentaria after crossing the Peninsula. It also wrecked the mission on Groote Eylandt and absolutely flattened the Torres Strait Islands.
Thanks for the information, Bruce, I'll keep it on file.
Best Regards,
Matthew S.

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 21:41    Subject: [austpacwx] Solomon Low
Hi All, There maybe some interesting developments over the Northern Coral Sea by early next week.
Will this low follow the same path as Ingrid? Or will it be travelling west and be further south.
We will see, the season hasn't finished yet up here.
Shane

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 23:06    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear All,
AIVU....
> > Where did that name come from??? Was it assigned by Port Moresby???
With a name like that, where else could it come from :) BNE never assigned that one, that I know for certain; the name AIVU never figured on any of their
name-lists, they've always used English or European names.
Just one thing -- who names TC's over the Solomons west of 160 E and north of 10 S? They don't seem to be part of either BNE's or PNG's AoR, though as I recall they all seem to get BNE names. Can anyone clarify?
Yours,
Matthew
BTW, did those emails from my alter-egos "burma_watch" and "polushka" get through?

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/10/2005 23:27    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Matthew,
The boundary between the PNG and Brisbane areas is irregular in shape, but continuous, so there is no gap. See links below:
http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/au/area/pg.png
http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/au/area/brisbane.png
Julian

From: Jeff Callaghan  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 00:19    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Aivu was named by now retired PNG forecaster Ken Ona. I seem to recall that   he named it after his mother in law. A post analyses with better sat pic data available when the BT was created shows that it was a T7.5 - CMG to CDG surround (colder than -77) and a rare WMG eye (warmer than +9) hourly from 0000UTC 3 Apr 1989 to 0600UTC 3 Apr 1989. We will eventually get around to fixing up the BT data
Jeff

From: KHoarau  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 04:32    Subject: Re : Re: TC Aivu (130Ko)
Hi Jeff and all,
Here, is my estimate concerning TC Aivu.
                         JTWC Personal
1989033106, 104S, 1544E,  25  25
1989033112,  99S, 1538E,  25  30
1989033118, 100S, 1532E,  25  35
1989040100, 103S, 1527E,  35  45
1989040106, 110S, 1524E,  40  50
1989040112, 118S, 1519E,  45  55
1989040118, 129S, 1514E,  50  60
1989040200, 139S, 1508E,  60  70
1989040206, 149S, 1502E,  65  75
1989040212, 156S, 1496E,  75  85
1989040218, 160S, 1494E,  85 105
1989040300, 164S, 1492E, 110 125
1989040306, 172S, 1491E, 115 145
1989040312, 179S, 1488E, 120 135
1989040318, 185S, 1484E, 110 125
Jeff, I do agree with you : TC Aivu did display a satellite signature almost at DT 7.5 between 2100Z on 2 April(the eye was already at +15C) and 0600Z on 3th.
This Super cyclone was at its best around 0400Z on 3th with a warm eye of +20.4C and a White surrounding ring(-70C/-75C) while the CMG ring(-76C to –80C) was a little too short(0.45°) to be fully taken into account DT was at 7+. As Aivu was at 75kt on 2th at 0600Z, the Model Expected-T-number (MET) was at 6.0 with PAT at 6.5(MET +0.5) on 3th at 0600Z. So the T-number was based on DT 7+ or 145 kt.
Even if Aivu was a rather small cyclone, it is difficult to intensify it more quickly to avoid to break the Dvorak’s constraints.
Super Cyclone Zoe on 27 December 2002 had a WMG eye and a CMG ring more than 0.5° for more than 6 hours when it had been estimated at 155 kt.
http://www.jean-paul.hoarau.com/Page2.html
Karl

From: KHoarau To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 06:49    Subject: Re : Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables? (120 Ko)
Hi Jeff, Bruce and all,
Jeff and Bruce, I do agree with you, and I found in the WPAC during the recon period examples of small typhoons having higher SLP for a giving MSW than those in the Atkinson-Holliday's wind-pressure relationship.
But there are cases too with higher SLP even for large typhoons but they formed between December and May at a period when the environmental pressures are higher than during the monsoon period.
Here is the most significant case I found. It is Typhoon Marge in December 1986. This typhoon was moving in a westerly direction.
Look at the recon data :
Wind at 700 mb Extrapolated
Date     SLP Dir Speed surface wind(kt)
19-0020Z 974 120  88   79
  -1110Z 964 120  98   88
  -1341Z 959 140 105   95
20-2121Z 954 090 127  114
  -2322Z 947 320 115  103(weak semi-circle)
I computed the surface winds and I used the same ratio used by the NHC in the Atlantic : Surface wind = 700 mb wind x 90%
It looks like Typhoon Marge had an intensity of 115 kt according the two recon made on 20 Dec at 2121Z and 2330Z.
           JTWC  Personal
19-0000Z : 70 kt  80 kt
  -0600Z : 75 kt  85 kt
  -1200Z : 80 kt  90 kt
  -1800Z : 90 kt  95 kt
20-0000Z : 90 kt  95 kt
  -0600Z : 95 kt 100 kt
  -1200Z : 90 kt 105 kt
  -1800Z : 90 kt 110 kt
21-0000Z : 90 kt 115-120 kt
Actually, Marge did not reach an intensity only of 95 kt (T5+) but 115 kt (T6) !!! And the 947 mb/115 kt looks more like in the hurricanes in the Atlantic than in the typhoon (925 mb/115kt).
Obviously, I have a couple of basic Dvorak enhancement pictures to show that Marge had a satellite presentation at least of T6.
Since 0600Z on 20 Dec, Marge displayed a satellite presentation of DT 6 with a MG eye(-42C) in a White ring(-70C/-75C). And from 1200Z to 0000Z on 21 Dec, DT was at 6.5 with an OW eye (-25C) in a White ring. And as T was at 4.5 24hrs earlier, MET was at 6 on 21 at 0000Z !!!
So, JTWC did not reanalyse the recon data when they reanalysed the Best Track Data around the year 2000. And Marge is not an isolated case !!!
Still a lot of work to do in the WPAC data base to make it more reliable !!!
Karl
>For midgets or near midgets like Ingrid we use a a higher CP for a given intensity. eg Ada in the Whitsunday Islands in 1970 had a CP measured of 960hPa but did cat 4 damage. Likewise Tracy had annbsp; high CP of 952hPa.
>We wrote this up (with Roger Smith) in the Sept 1998 issue of the Aust Met Mag. on The relationshipnbsp; between Max surface winds and CP in TCs
>Jeff

From: "Paul Yole" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 11:01    Subject: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hey All,
With all the TC activity up North atm, I have found a song that can relate to it quite well.
Sung by Graeme Connor's, the song is called "Cyclone Season" and is off his "North" CD.
A nice listen :o)
PaulY

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 13:00    Subject: [austpacwx] Ingrid
Hi all the reformed eye of Ingrid has now shown up on the 256K radar for Gove and is moving due west looks to be cat 2/3 and deepening so we will have a good look at the ye feature over the next 6 to 12 hours regards Clyve H.

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 13:03    Subject: [austpacwx] Fw: Ingrid correctum
Hi all the reformed eye of Ingrid has now shown up on the 256K radar east of Gove and is moving due west, looks to be cat 2/3 and deepening so we will have a good look at the eye feature over the next 6 to 12 hours on its approach to northeast top end NT regards Clyve H.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 14:45    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
The eye of the re intensifying TC 22P i visible on the GOVE's scope.
Looks like the second landfall may be more felt than the first one.
http://www.bom.gov.au
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST Friday 11 March 2005
A  CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between MANINGRIDA and GROOTE EYLANDT, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 1 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 3 was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 250 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy and 330 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula, moving west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour towards
the coast. The cyclone is slowly intensifying.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour are expected
to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and NHULUNBUY later this evening and extend towards MANINGRIDA
by Saturday afternoon. GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN
and the TIWI ISLANDS, by Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and MANINGRIDA.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 1 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 139.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 175 kilometres per hour slowly intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 3
. Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is expected to
affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 pm CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:08    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear All,
Jeff Callaghan wrote:
> Aivu was named by now retired PNG forecaster Ken Ona.
Thanks for this, Jeff. Another of Life's Little Mysteries solved, I theenk.
> I seem to recall that he named it after his mother in law.
And how long has he hated her :)
> A post analyses with better sat pic data available when the BT was created shows that it was a T7.5 - CMG to CDG surround (colder than -77) and a rare WMG eye (warmer than +9) hourly from 0000UTC 3 Apr 1989 to 0600UTC 3 Apr 1989.
That sounds like something I wouldn't want to meet on a dark night. What max winds would that have been, if it had got into the public warnings?
[snip]
BR,    Matthew S.

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:17    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear Julian (and all),
Thanks for the update, I was under the impression (probably based on past practice) that BoM BNE's northern boundary was 10S. Now I see that is not so,which explains why BNE names TC's over the Solomons.
BR,   Matthew S.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:18    Subject: TC 23S/WILLY
Jean Paul Hoarau (Karl's brother) has put online a very nice ms Met 5 picture of TC 23S at 0252Z the 11th.
http://www.jean-paul.hoarau.com
Patrick

From: "Simon Clarke" To: <tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:55    Subject: RE: TC Aivu
Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
But I stand to be corrected on this.
Cheers   Simon

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 17:59    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hi Paul, That's an oldie but a goodie that tune. He was born and raised in Mackay. That song was of course as you said from the album "North" in 1988.
The ABC Radio used to play that tune at the beginning of the cyclone season
Cheers Shane.
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Yole   Sent: Friday, 11 March 2005 1:01 PM
To: austpacwx   Subject: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hey All,
With all the TC activity up North atm, I have found a song that can relate to it quite well.
Sung by Graeme Connor's, the song is called "Cyclone Season" and is off his "North" CD.
A nice listen :o)
PaulY

From: "Keith Barnett" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 18:22    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
And I recall reading a story about a tornado whose wholesale destruction included a broken record entitled 'Stormy Weather'.

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 20:42    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear Simon (and all),
> Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
There was one called Watorea in April of 1976, which would have been a PNG name -- probably the first in Aus waters.
BR,    Matthew S.

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 20:49    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Keith and all,
Your remark about the record "Stormy Weather" jolted my memory and sure enough I have found the reference in a book by Frank W. Lane called "The Elements Rage"(David & Charles-Newton Abbot, Plymouth UK , 1966, p 41.
I quote;
" Human beings are certainly carried aloft by tornadoes.During a tornado at El Dorado, Kansas, on June 10,1958, a woman was sucked-or blown-through a window and carried 60 feet.  When she landed she found a gramophone record titled "Stormy Weather"- broken."
Some of the other stories almost defy the imagination but Lane quotes good authority to support the stories.Sadly the book is long out of print.
Gavin   /SSWW Canberra

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 21:05    Subject: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi all, latest flood warnings issued are below for Northern Qld.
I will take a gander tomorrow up north to see what's doing and take some pictures for you all to see.
If I cant get past the Tully River, there won't be much to look at.
Cheers Shane.
Rainfalls up to 200m have been recorded along the coastal strip between Cairns and Ingham since 9am Friday and rivers have commenced to rise in the area.
Heavy rainfall is likely to continue throughout tonight and into Saturday and will result in significant river rises and possible flooding in coastal rivers and streams. River systems likely to be affected include the Barron, Mulgrave, Russell, Johnstone and Tully Rivers and adjacent coastal streams.
The next warning will be issued about 6am Saturday.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/11/2005 23:03    Subject: Ingrid Cat 4 - Gove radar
Hi All.
Ingrid now Cat 4 - see BoM warning below.
Those online at the moment can watch the south eyewall of Ingrid hit Nhulunbuy in the next hour or so on the Gove radar at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR092.loop.shtml
Regards,
Carl.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between CROKER ISLAND and ALYANGULA, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 11.30pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 4 was centred
in the Gulf
of Carpentaria about 65 kilometres east of NHULUNBUY and 140 kilometres south
southeast of CAPE WESSEL, moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour
towards NHULUNBUY. This very dangerous cyclone is continuing to intensify.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour are expected
to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY in the next three hours, and extend to ELCHO
ISLAND early in the morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently developing on the
coast between ALYANGULA and NHULUNBUY and will extend along the north coast to
CROKER ISLAND by Saturday evening.
GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS, by
Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND with higher than usual tides west to CROKER ISLAND.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 11.30 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 137.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 955 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is
expected to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY in the next three hours.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 1 am CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 02:36    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
From GOVE I noted gust at 102k/h and 994mb.
The eye of the powerful TC is just near Cape Wilberforce North west of GOVE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 3:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between CROKER ISLAND and ALYANGULA, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 2.30am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 4 was located about 30
kilometres north northeast of NHULUNBUY and 145 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour. This very dangerous cyclone is
continuing to intensify.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour are affecting the
coast near NHULUNBUY, and are expected to extend to ELCHO ISLAND during the
morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between ALYANGULA and NHULUNBUY and will extend along the north coast
to CROKER ISLAND by Saturday evening.
GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS, by
Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND with higher than usual tides west to CROKER ISLAND.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 2.30 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.9 degrees South 136.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is
affecting the coast near NHULUNBUY, and are expected to extend to ELCHO ISLAND
during the morning..
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 4 am CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (INGRID) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 137.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 137.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 11.8S0 136.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 11.4S6 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.2S4 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.2S4 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 137.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (INGRID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22P HAS EXPERIENCED EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED
ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 22P WILL
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
Patrick

From: "Gary Padgett" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 02:56    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
> > Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
> There was one called Watorea in April of 1976, which would have been a PNG name
> -- probably the first in Aus waters.
The last three were Adel in 1993, Upia in 2002, and Epi in 2003. Have there been any more PNG storms? Six TCs in 30 yrs makes you wonder why even have a TCWC there. Two named by Brisbane in 1972, Hannah and Ida, would now likely have PNG names.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 03:25    Subject: RE: TC 22P/INGRID
Metars from the last hour from Gove:
YPGV 111900Z 10037G49KT 0800 SCT008 SCT011 OVC120 25/25
Q0996 RMK DISTANT LIGHTNING= (SPECI)
YPGV 111830Z 11040G51KT 0800 FEW008 SCT011 OVC120 25/25
Q0995 RMK LIGHTNING TO E. 59KT GUST RECORDED= (SPECI)
Boris

From: "Bruce Harper" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 06:31    Subject: Ingrid imitates Tracy?
In the past 8 hours Ingrid has gotten serious. As it neared the Gove Peninsula it rapidly tightened up and has intensified in a way reminiscent of Tracy in 1974 as it approached Darwin. With an eye diameter of about 15km and an Rgales less than 80km its obviously packing some winds in the core.
I've been running some coastal storm surge predictions, which have doubled from about 1.7m when it was a 970hPa to about 3.5m now in some areas.
Some of the models have it persisting as far as Darwin ..
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 07:06    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
Ingrid continues to lash Top End
Saturday, 12 March 2005. 08:26 (AEDT)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 07:26 (ACST)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 07:26 (AEST)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 08:26 (ACDT)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 05:26 (AWST)
Cyclone Ingrid is heading towards the Northern Territory. (Satellite image taken at 10:30pm on March 11.)Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is continuing to bring torrential rain and wind to the north-east, Arnhem Land coast in the Northern Territory.
The remote Northern Territory town of Nuhlunbuy is being lashed by heavy winds and rain from tropical cyclone Ingrid, which has been upgraded to a category 4 system.
The category 4 warning includes coastal and island communities between Cape Don and Cape Shield.
At 4:30am ACST, Cyclone Ingrid was was located about 40 kilometres north north-west of Nhulunbuy and 110 kilometres east of Elcho Island, moving west at 20 kilometres per hour.
Senior forecaster at the cyclone warning centre Graham King says the highest wind gusts have reached 260 kilometres an hour, but they did not hit the town.
"Cyclone ingrid has passed about 30 kilometres north of the township of Nhulunbuy," he said.
"The strongest winds recorded at Nhulunbuy were about 110 kilometres an hour.
"It's a category 4, top end of a category 4 cyclone. Tracy was a Category 4 cyclone is the best way of doing a direct comparison."
Mr King believes the cyclone has reached a plateau in power, but will continue tracking west across the Top End coast in the next few days.
The residents of Nhulunbuy are continuing to take shelter.
Police say it is too early to know if there is damage, as people have not moved from their shelters or homes.
About 250 people are in the town's main cyclone shelter near the hospital.
Jane Martin lives on a boat and says she is glad she has brought her children to the shelter, which is a much safer place.
"I'm just so scared for all my friends out there, I really am," she said.
"I'd like to be more places than here, but you know, I hope everybody's alright."
Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on the coast between Cape Shield and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy, and will extend along the north coast to Croker Island by tonight.
Gales may extend further to the west, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands by Sunday afternoon.
The bureau warns dangerously high tides could cause extensive flooding at the coast between Cape Shield and Goulburn Island, with higher than usual tides west to Croker Island.
Heavy rain may also cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises in the northern Top End

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 07:26    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Solomon Low
Hi Shane I agree with you this TD is worth watching
Gavin   /SSWW Canberra
>From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
>Subject: [austpacwx] Solomon Low    Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 23:41:23 +1000
>Hi All, There maybe some interesting developments over the Northern Coral Sea by early next week.
>Will this low follow the same path as Ingrid? Or will it be travelling west and be further south.
>We will see, the season hasn't finished yet up here.
>Shane

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph."  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 08:19    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
I've got over 400mm rain in 2.5 days here in cape trib she's a bit wet.

From: "G8.106" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 08:44    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi Kelly et/al impressive amounts of rain!...The ITCZ remains to the north of your area, however there is a deep east/northeast airflow into the northeast QLD coast so there is a good chance that heavy showers/storms may perists over the next severals days...also there is an enhanced convective area near 153E and around 12 south northeast Coral Sea and over SST's near 30c, this system lacks low level convergence at the moment and upper levels are not fully favourable for imediate deelopment but worth keeping an eye on
regards Clyve H Woodend Vic.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 09:20    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Yeah some seriously amazing rainfall up on the north QLD coast overnight...324mm at a place called Copperlode Dam just inland from Cairns and 342mm at somewhere called The Boulders just up the coast from Innisfail.
As Clyve mentioned, a nice convergence zone at the moment feeding onto the north QLD coast to the south of the monsoon trough. Its certainly all happening up in the tropics after a quiet season so far!
Matt

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 09:53    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi Kelly, it has been wet up your way. Will take a peek tomorrow. I was a bit tied up today with the young bub. Shane.

From: Carl Smith  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 09:31    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID now Cat 5!
Hi All.
TC Ingrid has intensified to a very destructive Cat 5 system since it cleared the islands on the NE tip of the Northern Territory.
I guess the people of Darwin are getting a little edgy about this one!
Regards,  Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
POINT STUART and CAPE SHIELD, including the COBURG PENINSULA.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including the TIWI
ISLANDS and
DARWIN.
At 10.30am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 5 was located about 170
kilometres east northeast of MANINGRIDA and 105 kilometres east northeast of
MILINGIMBI, moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is no longer
affecting the coast. However, VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may develop further west
along the coast later.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour continue to be experienced on the
coast between CAPE SHIELD and MILINGIMBI, including NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND,
and will extend along the north coast to CROKER ISLAND by tonight.
GALES may extend west to DARWIN by Sunday evening and further west to
DALY RIVER
MOUTH by Monday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast
between ELCHO
ISLAND and CAPE DON.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 10.30 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 135.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 290 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 938 hectoPascals
REPEATING: VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS have now moved west of ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE
WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between POINT STUART
and CAPE SHIELD, including the COBURG PENINSULA.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 2 pm CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: "Clyve Herbert"   To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:25    Subject: [austpacwx] INGRID
Ho all tropo's Interesting going's on with Ingrid a possible multiple eye wall developing the primary wall has almost become cut off with a possible second eye wall developing outside which can be seen in radar but not sat pic...estimate central pressure near 933hpa and still deepening..regards Clyve H

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:54    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
The Gove Radar hasn't updated for a few hours so we can't see the eye anymore . must be on windfinding duties . :doh: why now! :-)
James Holbeach
Lodge Operation / Promotion Manager
---------------------------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club Inc.
Mt Hotham Victoria Australia

From: "Peter Konnecke"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:57    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
James,
One would imagine that finding wind in Gove would not be a hard thing to do right now. :-)
I'm a fan of the old wet finger in the air trick ... however this method is not recommended in a Cat 5 storm :-)
Peter

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:24    Subject: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi all, Interesting to hear on ABC radio earlier today that 70% of Darwin's building structures are not Category 3 or more cyclone proof.
In general, when It comes down to flying debris ect, there isn't much you can do, however from what I have heard today nearly a 3rd of Darwin isn't ready for a possible assault from the mother of storms, a CAT 5 cyclone.
While I hope this doesn't eventuate, Darwin maybe in trouble over the next few days. With memories of Cyclone Tracy vivid in the older generation, it can be very easy to become complacent.
Ingrid is still heading in a general Westerly direction, similar in size as Tracy but with a lot more punch that's for sure.
We'll see how this pans out over the next 48 hrs or so.
Regards, Shane.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:27    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
Its strange that its offline now...I'm hoping its just for windfinding although this is definitely not one of the times listed on the BoM site that windfinding normally takes place. They may well just have decided not to do it earlier cos it was too dangerous as the cyclone was passing by. If it is windfinding it should be coming back online within the next 10 mins or so.
Lets hope so...
Matt

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:33    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
Funny we must have been checking the windfinding times at the same time, I've infact still got my browser open to the page!
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/#windfinding   LOL
Anyway, That was the only possible reason I could see . so yeah, hopefully it is back up soon . if not we will just have to wait till it appears on Darwin / Kathrines scans.
James Holbeach

From: "Keith Barnett" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:36    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
The Gove radar is showing an image timestamped 0130 UTC. About 2 hours old .

From: "James Holbeach" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:51    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
Ok it is back, but the eye is almost off the 256k scan now .
James Holbeach

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/12/2005 11:42    Subject: Ingrid
Following from Florida.
04:00UTC
Suggest "squaring-off" of outer bands sign of potential turn.
Cyclone looks to be more west now.
This square shape to storm usually indicative of either turn or weakening soon.
Rare instance can also mean further strengthening.
More west means closer to Darwin...
- Appleweb

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 13:18    Subject: [austpacwx] Threesome?
Hi tropos....Is it possible that we may have a threesome TC event over the Australian region?, a developing convective area has appeared over the northeast Coral Sea in the past 6 or so hours...regards Clyve H.

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:08    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
The GFS and Meso LAPS models have Ingrid hitting Darwin head on. They disagree on the time though . GFS says about 60hrs LAPS says about 36hrs.
GASP shows it slinking off into Arnhem land, but GASP has not been too accurate for this system . so far.
James Holbeach

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:00    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Threesome?
At 04:18 PM 12/03/2005, you wrote:
>Hi tropos....Is it possible that we may have a threesome TC event over the Australian region?, a developing convective area has appeared over the northeast Coral Sea in the past 6 or so hours...regards Clyve H.
Sounds like it's on the cards. :)
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:39    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Threesome?
The B.O.M seem to disagree with those thoughts.
There are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral Sea at the present time.
The chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Coral Sea during the next 3 days is low.
Who knows, let's wait and see.
Shane.

From: "Bussy"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:11    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
What Category was Tracy?

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:17    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
At 06:11 PM 12/03/2005, you wrote:
>What Category was Tracy?
4
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: Appleweb  To: SmithP
Date: 03/12/2005 15:20    Subject: Re: Ingrid
In a message dated 3/11/2005 11:48:31 PM Eastern Standard Time,
SmithP@ics.edu.hk writes:
Received,
Thanks.
Who is "Appleweb"?
Just my e-mail address. I should have used another name to avoid potential spam.
Looks like Ingrid has beaten the odds and intensified after showing square borders with her outer bands. Square borders to outer bands most often precedes a sudden change in storm (but not always). Nothing but warm waters ahead on this track.
Hurricane Charley August 13th. 145mph. 14 miles from my house on Sanibel Island, Florida USA.

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:25    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
HI Bussy, Sorry for the late reply, Tracy was category 4.  1974 was also when Male names where added to the lists.
Shane

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:32    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Tracy was officially rated at cat 3 although it was thought Tracy may have reached cat 4 just prior to crossing the coast at Darwin, on landfall the central eye pressure was about 950hpa, the highest wind gust was 217kph then the wind vane blew away..the eye on approach was moving left and right off its mean track over a distance of about 100klm an interesting phenomena
regards Clyve H.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:35    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
In the end, neither prediction has ended up being remarkably accurate. While Ingrid has continued moving westwards into NT waters(Blind Freddy could have told you that), it doesn't look like it will end up as far west as Willy.
Most current indications are that it will eventually make landfall along the NT coast somewhere and then slowly recurve back to the southeast. The big question is when will it make that landfall. The models vary from around the Cape Don region in the case of the BoM models(mesoLAPS, LAPS and TLAPS), to around Darwin(GFS) to as far west as the Kimberley(EC). GFS has handled the track the best of the the lot so far so if I was in Darwin now I'd be well into commencing preparations.
And as for Willy...a bit of a non-event really. It doesn't look like its going to come much closer to the WA coast now and although the jetstream will still capture some of the moisture as suggested before, this is more likely to result in just light rain across much of WA and southern Australia next week rather than any significant rainband.
Ah well...its been fascinating watching it all unfold anyway.
Matt

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:36    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi Clyve and all, Yes its unfortunate not to find out what the maximum gusts where, minimum pressure and rainfall ect. If this is a copycat situation with Ingrid, it will be well tracked and weather conditions "we hope" be monitored accurately.
Shane

From: "Michael Manning"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:46    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
Sweet mercy on all in Ingrids path now!!!!
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 4 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 134.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
She is really winding up the clock now and means business!
Cheers, Michael

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:48    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi Michael, yes she is a mean cyclone for sure.
Furthermore, things have advanced greatly since the seventies. You know like Flares, Cordroid Pants,
The Mullet hairstyles ect.
Shane

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/12/2005 15:56    Subject: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi All.
I do not recall the BoM having such a high wind speed in an operational warning before - see warnings below!
Regards,   Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:09 pm CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
DARWIN and ELCHO ISLAND, including the COBOURG PENINSULA, and now including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to DALY RIVER MOUTH.
The CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND