Tropical Cyclone Ingrid - North Queensland - March 2005

Note: To view all images on this page in full size, please click on the thumnails at the right hand side of the page.

Final Track Map of Ingrid: Click on thumbnail at right:

Geoff Mackley Reports Live from Kalumburu

An e-Mail History of Ingrid:

I find it very interesting and informative to follow e-mail discussions about cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons.  It is especially interesting to follow the sidetracks which open up as long term storm watchers are reminded of the storms of yesteryear.  One can learn a great deal about the forecasting and tracking of these exciting systems.   read on and enjoy!

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/06/2005 12:01  Subject: TC 21P/RAE and TC INGRID
The SPAC carries on .
TC 21P/RAE is on the charts and TC INGRID has just been named by BRISBANE.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/06/2005 15:47   Subject: TC 21P/RAE , TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
TC 22P/INGIRD deserves attention since it is in the Coral Sea an area which on the whole has been "performing" below expectations for the last seasons and since the first MI data are "good" with a clear cut centre . The cyclone seems to have potential .
A weak TD ( the rule for many weeks now near the Mascarene Islands) has dumped 100/143mm of rain in 24h in several parts of Mauritius and now is lying southeast of the island.
at last the eastern half of the South Indian ocean basin may come to life . A strong cyclone is foreacast to develop off WA owing to the last two UK MET runs.
Patrick

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 10.5S 122.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.03.2005 10.5S 122.4E WEAK
12UTC 08.03.2005 12.8S 122.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2005 13.8S 120.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2005 14.6S 119.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.03.2005 15.4S 118.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.03.2005 16.1S 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.03.2005 17.2S 115.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.03.2005 18.5S 114.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.8S 121.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.03.2005 9.8S 121.4E WEAK
12UTC 07.03.2005 10.5S 122.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.03.2005 11.4S 122.3E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.03.2005 12.3S 121.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2005 13.6S 120.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.03.2005 13.8S 119.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2005 14.5S 118.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.03.2005 15.2S 116.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.03.2005 15.6S 114.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2005 16.3S 114.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2005 17.1S 113.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

From: Carl Smith To: "Phil Smith"
Date: 03/06/2005 22:13   Subject: Re: current.htm - 22P and other changes > now severe Cat 3!
Hi Phil.
Thanks, updated, and made some corrections - also BoM changed the coast wind link - all
links below. [edited]
Carl.

From: Carl Smith To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]:
Date: 03/06/2005 23:17   Subject: Ingrid now Cat 3
Hi All.
Ingrid is now a severe cyclone at intensity AU Cat 3 [= hurricane] according to the BoM - latest TC Bulletin & Shipping Warning below.
Carl.
IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00pm EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005
Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid has intensified to a category 3 cyclone in the northern Coral Sea.
At 11pm EST, severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, category 3 with central pressure 975 hPa, was located near 13.6S 148.7E, about 430 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown. It is now near stationary.
Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to remain slow moving over the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.
At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.
The next information Bulletin will be issued at 5 am EST Monday 7 March.
[snip]
WEATHER BRISBANE

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/07/2005 04:42   Subject: TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
as expected TC 22P/INGRID has been intensifying rapidly and maybe once again the "MI rule" will be vindicated...
Anyway the northeast coast of Australia might be in for serious business next few days...
What I alluded to with the UK MET runs for the possible cyclone off Western Autralia in the South Indian seems on the way. FNMOC has now it as 93S INVEST and last EIR data suggest the TD is already well depicted.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/07/2005 04:56   Subject: Re: TC 22P/INGRID and upcoming SIO cyclone?
The MI AQUA1 at 1502z is very impressive for TC 22P/INGRID.
The TRMM at 1730Z is less so but the 37 channel still depicts well the centre.
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
Patrick

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/07/2005 20:17   Subject: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all, Keeping an eye on S.T.C Ingrid up north a bit. Might give us the rain we need for sure.
Shane. Townsville.

From: "The Mayos" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 03:57   Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Shane and All, Did you see this picture of CYclone Ingrid. Judy
[snip]: http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov/shownh.php3?img_id=12751

From: Carl Smith To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]:
Date: 03/08/2005 05:08   Subject: TC Ingrid now Cat 5!
Hi All.
Ingrid has become a very severe Cat 5 cyclone and appears to be headed for Cape York, perhaps N of Cooktown somewhere.
Latest warnings below.
Regards, Carl.

IDQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this message.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:38am on Tuesday the 8th of March 2005
A Tropical Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Port Douglas and Lockhart River.
At 5am Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid, category 5, with central pressure 930 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.0 south longitude 147.9 east, which is 330 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown. Ingrid is currently drifting slowly west northwest at 6 km/h.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is expected to continue moving slowly towards the north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to increase along the north Queensland coast, and gales are expected to develop between Port Douglas and Lockhart River during Wednesday.
People between Port Douglas and Lockhart River should consider actions they will need to take as this Severe Tropical Cyclone moves closer to the coast and listen to the next advice at 11am EST Tuesday 8 March.
[snip]

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 05:23   Subject: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Hi All, Looking at the Cairns and Townsville loops this morning I noticed the loops changing from the old look to a new style.
Cyclone Ingrid moving WNW at 6klm/hr. Too far north for ant action. I am going up there Thrusday to take piccies if I can get there.
Grey overcast day today.
Cheers Shane

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph."  To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 05:42    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
I'll give you all a on hand description if she makes landfall near here. ( Cape Tribulation)
Kelly

From: Jeff Callaghan  To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:07    Subject: Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
For midgets or near midgets like Ingrid we use a a higher CP for a given intensity. eg Ada in the Whitsunday Islands in 1970 had a CP measured of 960hPa but did cat 4 damage. Likewise Tracy had an high CP of 952hPa.
We wrote this up (with Roger Smith) in the Sept 1998 issue of the Aust Met Mag. on The relationship between Max surface winds and CP in TCs
Jeff
At 21:14 7/03/2005 +0100, you wrote:
Hi there,
is there anybody within the group who knows perfectly the different Dvorak tables used by the different WMO centres in the SH?
There is already a difference between PERTH and DARWIN and BRISBANE and ... FIJI.
The only two which agree "perfectly" are MFR and PERTH.
For instance a 930mb TC for MFR/PERTH equals 100kt but for BRISBANE it yields 115kt. FIJI and DARWIN also use higher winds for higher MSLP compared to MFR and PERTH.
What a nightmare! of course I rely first and foremost on the 01mn values from JTWC hence there is some sense of uniformity for the SH ( barring the human subjectivity...).
MFR thought ( and they were partly right) that changing from 0.8 to 0.88 ( conversion factor from 1mn into 10mn) would make them closer to the other centres but differences still persist.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:40    Subject: Re: Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Thanks Jeff.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 06:48    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
and the "MI rule" has been borne out again.
TC 22P/INGRID is now at Super Typhoon intensity ( 130kt) and is the strongest cyclone in the Coral Sea since ..................................................................................................................?
NAMESEASONMONTHOCEAN BASIN(*)MAX INTENSITYPOSITION AT MAX INTENSITY
ZOE2002/2003DECSPAC155KT/ T7.511.7 S/ 170.7 E
AGNIELLE1995/1996NOVSIO150KT/ T7.5-12.8 S/ 84.4 E
RON1997/1998JANSPAC145KT/ T7.0+12.9 S/175.5 W
GERALDA1993/1994JANSIO145KT/ T7.0+14.5 S/ 57.3 E
INIGO2002/2003APRSIO140KT/ T7.012.6 S/ 115.8 E
KALUNDE2002/2003MARSIO140KT/ T7.014.0 S/ 70.4 E
ERICA2002/2003MARSPAC140KT/ T7.019.6 S/ 161.3 E
HARY2001/2002MARSIO140KT/ T7.014.7 S/ 50.8 E
FREDERIC1998/1999MARSIO140KT/ T7.017.6 S/ 91.7 E
SUSAN1997/1998JANSPAC140KT/ T7.014.4 S/170.0 E
ITELLE1995/1996APRSIO140KT/ T7.015.0 S/ 63.5 E
FRAN1991/1992MARSPAC140KT/ T7.017.3 S/170.8 E
ORSON1988/1989APRSIO140KT/ T7.018.6 S/116.3 E
ANNE1987/1988JANSPAC140KT/ T7.015.0 S/165.4 E
THELMA1998/1999DECSIO135KT/ T7.0-11.6 S/129.2 E
BONITA1995/1996JANSIO135KT/ T7.0-18.7 S/ 54.3 E
ALIBERA1989/1990DECSIO135KT/ T7.0-10.9 S/ 55.6 E
HINA1984/1985MARSPAC135KT/ T7.0-15.2 S/173.7 E
DOVI2002/2003FEBSPAC130KT/ T6.5+18.3 S/ 166.6 W
DINA2001/2002JANSIO130KT/ T6.5+18.0 S/ 64.2 E
PAUL1999/2000APRSIO130KT/ T6.5+13.7 S/100.1 E
JOHN1999/2000DECSIO130KT/ T6.5+19.6 S/117.3 E
GWENDA1998/1999APRSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.4 S/116.8 E
LITANNE1993/1994MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.9 S/ 56.2 E
ESAU1991/1992MARSPAC130KT/ T6.5+13.7 S/159.4 E
BELLA1990/1991JANSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.7 S/ 61.8 E
ALEX1989/1990MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+17.0 S/100.3 E
HARRY1988/1989FEBSPAC130KT/ T6.5+19.0 S/157.9 E
GASITAO1987/1988MARSIO130KT/ T6.5+16.4 S/ 63.3 E
ANDRY1983/1984DECSIO130KT/ T6.5+10.9 S/ 49.5 E
BENI2002/2003JANSPAC125KT/ T6.516.5 S/ 162.7 E
CHRIS2001/2002JANSIO125KT/ T6.519.2 S/120.3 E
ROSITA1999/2000APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.4 S/122.3 E
HUDAH1999/2000APRSIO125KT/ T6.516.6 S/ 56.9 E
VANCE1998/1999MARSIO125KT/ T6.517.3 S/116.2 E
PANCHO1996/1997JANSIO125KT/ T6.513.0 S/ 91.0 E
BELLAMINE1996/1997NOVSIO125KT/ T6.512.4 S/ 78.7 E
OLIVIA1995/1996APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.6 S/114.6 E
CHLOE1994/1995APRSIO125KT/ T6.515.0 S/123.7 E
MARLENE1994/1995APRSIO125KT/ T6.516.4 S/ 69.4 E
REWA1993/1994JANSPAC125KT/ T6.517.9 S/154.0 E
JOURDANNE1992/1993APRSIO125KT/ T6.518.1 S/ 75.8 E
PREMA1992/1993MARSPAC125KT/ T6.516.4 S/168.7 E
VAL 1991/1992DECSPAC125KT/ T6.513.8 S/172.5 W
SINA1990/1991NOVSPAC125KT/ T6.516.6 S/174.8 E
HANITRA1988/1989FEBSIO125KT/ T6.513.8 S/ 82.4 E
KATHY1983/1984MARSPAC125KT/ T6.514.9 S/137.9 E
GUILLAUME2001/2002FEBSIO120KT/ T6.5-18.2 S/ 59.5 E
ANDO2000/2001JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-17.8 S/ 54.7 E
NORMAN1999/2000MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-19.7 S/106.2 E
CONNIE1999/2000JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-16.3 S/ 57.0 E
TIFFANY1997/1998JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-19.0 S/116.0 E
GAVIN1996/1997MARSPAC120KT/ T6.5-21.0 S/176.7 E
DRENA1996/1997JANSPAC120KT/ T6.5-15.5 S/159.2 E
DANIELLA1996/1997DECSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.2 S/ 56.1 E
NADIA1993/1994MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-12.9 S/ 55.4 E
KINA1992/1993DECSPAC120KT/ T6.5-14.1 S/172.6 E
FARIDA1991/1992FEBSIO120KT/ T6.5-18.9 S/ 75.7 E
HEATHER1991/1992MARSIO120KT/ T6.5-15.1 S/ 89.4 E
NEVILLE1991/1992APRSIO120KT/ T6.5-11.4 S/128.5 E
IRNA1991/1992APRSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.6 S/ 87.3 E
GRAHAM1991/1992DECSIO120KT/ T6.5-11.1 S/ 97.7 E
AIVU1988/1989APRSPAC120KT/ T6.5-17.9 S/148.8 E
SANDY1984/1985MARSPAC120KT/ T6.5-15.1 S/138.5 E
DAMIA1981/1982JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-14.5 S/ 75.0 E
OLGA1980/1981JANSIO120KT/ T6.5-16.0 S/ 88.4 E
(*)
SIO ( WEST OF 135° EAST) > South Indian ocean > total : 45 (68.2%)
SPAC( EAST OF 135° EAST)> South Pacific ocean > total : 21 (31.8%)
WEST OF 105° EAST : 32 (48.5%)
BETWEEN 105/135° EAST : 13 (19.7%)
BETWEEN 135/180° EAST : 18 (27.3%)
BETWEEN 180/170° WEST : 2 (3%)
EAST OF 170° WEST : 1(1.5%)
DATA : 1980/1981 to 2002 /2003: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER(JTWC) BASED ON BEST TRACK DATA
[snip]

From: "Bruce Harper" To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 07:14   Subject: RE: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Patrick,
While I cannot reconcile some of the comparisons you gave below I can provide some insight into the various systems.
Basically, Brisbane is fairly similar to Atkinson and Holiday (aka JTWC, Dvorak WNP etc) modified by 0.88 to give 10min, as developed by Geoff Crane in 1985. However their tabulation used for operations suffers a little from 10kph interval rounding.
Darwin is quite different and uses a curve developed by Geoff Love in 1985 (he is now the Director of the BoM) that was designed to be biased towards "midget" systems as a result of their encounter with Tracy in 1974 and some later small and intense systems. It is actually similar to the Dvorak Atlantic relationship.
However, as Jeff Callaghan points out, Brisbane typically vary their assessment based on the size of the system. This is something I also support in principle but unfortunately no one has come up with a systematic procedure for doing that yet so it is important that full documentation of such matters end up in the databases for the future. I assume that Ingrid is being treated in that way at the moment as 930 hPa would not normally take it to Cat 5.
Of course, relying mostly on Dvorak (wind and/or pressure) you simply cannot be too definitive, especially in forecast mode. You can read all about such issues on http://www.uq.net.au/seng/download/ where there is an extensive report I did on these and related matters a couple of years ago. It will probably tell you more than you want to know but it might spark your interest in a number of topics ....
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
Date: 03/08/2005 07:19    Subject: Re: RE: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables?
Bruce,
Thank You!
BR, Patrick

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 08:40    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly.
Just had a good look at the structure of super TC Ingrid central pressure appears to have reached 908hpa and has achieved cat 5, winds- 200 to 300kph!
Ingrid has become a very dangerous storm and it will be worth keeping a very close look at its tracking over the next 12 hours and appears to have become one of the strongest TC's in recent years, oddly there does not seem to be very much media interest in this storm?. The central core of destructive winds appear to be between 30 and 50 kilometres out from the inner edge of the eye wall. Ingrid has a very symmetrical eye and looks impressive on sat pic...Good luck..regards Clyve H.

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph." To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 08:58    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Thanks Clyve,
I'm just starting to pick up the edges of rain on the new radar. Interesting though pressure has been climbing since yesterday lunch 1015 now. My US navy site has her grounding between Cape Melville and North of Cooktown. We hope Awesome Nasa shot. My house is up the hill backed into a valley with ocean views, so this could be pretty scarey. All our tourists are being evacuated.
cheers

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:36    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly..
An interesting observation in regard to pressure..The central area if Ingrid has a very tight pressure gradient falling from near 1000hpa to 908hpa at the centre over less than about 100 kilometres..There is a ridge up the QLD coast but appears to be 'flattening' this set up may help keep Indrid on a more westerly track at this stage regards Clyve H

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:41    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Kelly,
do you have a digital camera?
when typhoons hit here, depending on how dangerous it gets, I like to get out in it and record it.
Our last typhoon here was Kompasu and I put up movies and pictures and a lot of other info at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/kompasu.htm for those interested.
Meanwhile There are a lot of links to details concerning TC INGRID up on my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm and I might decide to set up an Ingrid page if enough info comes in.
Phil
<><

From: Robert To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:48    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
NASSA`S Terra and Aqua has got some great shots! http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?Australia3

From: Carl Smith To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 09:59    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Looking at the 256km Cairns radar loop, the new radar scheme is very easy on my eye - I find the contrast adequate and the overall look is far more 'natural' compared to the old scheme - however I am using a G3 Mac which may make a difference as to how the colours are rendered.
Regards, Carl.

From: "Matt Pearce" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:00    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Clyve
Just wondering where you are getting the 908hpa from...all the BoM information says that Ingrid has a central pressure of 930hpa atm.
Certainly an amazing looking TC whatever its pressure is!
Matt

From: "Tuan Phan"  To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:14   Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi everyone,
The 00z anal has TC Ingrid at 930hPa. The Brisbane office is responsible for the official forecast and analysis at this stage.
I only eyeballed the TC and didn't do any formal calculations on the TC at all. However, thought the pressure would have been a bit lower than 930hPa (given it was already 930hPa for the 18z anal 6 hours ago) and the fact that the eye has grown larger, and the TC appears to have strengthen.
I'll be doing the 06z in a few hours (someone else did the 00z anal) and it would be interesting to see what the Qld office analyse it at. There's a good chance that the 920hPa forecast for tomorrow morning may get blown out of the water. Regardless of its pressure, Ingrid has an amazing figure - so
well rounded and perfectly circular shaped too!
tuan

From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:27    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi matt The BOM this morning estimated 920hpa...however after checking the various sat picks and sniffing about the eye region and applying some of the BOM formula for estimating central pressure 'I' have estimated the central pressure at near 908hpa this level would satisfy what I have estimated (as
an independent amateur) I used the same principles yesterday and achieved 932 to 935 when the BOM later went for 930hpa...also the pressure field has become very tight with massive pressure falls over just about 100klm this now introduces a very localised and efficient energy transfer process
especially in regard to provision of heating through enhanced latent release processes, this combined with very efficient but tight upper divergence and the appearance of the symmetrical eye indicate a 'super depressive pressure field'....found some good reading though in a publication climate and weather in the tropics by Herbert Riehl pages 394 to 542...best regards Clyve Herbert PS the Monterey sight now estimates INGRID at 910hpa......

From: "Keith Barnett" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:28    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
This storm would have to be the most intense to threaten Queensland since the Bathurst Bay hurricane (1899..down to 918 mb)?

From: Anthony Cornelius To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 10:50    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Clyve,
Have to agree - using similar techniques I got around 910hPa, but I noted on a TC list that a few of the BoM guys are on that there was a little flack thrown at the BoM about the inconsistent use of the Djovarak technique. One of the things that needs to be noted is that this is a very small TC (similar to those you might see in the GoC or around Darwin), which are traditionally the smallest, most intense TCs in the world! Hence the pressure gradient provides the winds...so wondering if that made them err on conservativity and kept it at 930 in the warnings too? Would be estimating wind gusts exceeding 300km/h by now...
Poor little Nemo won't be getting to Sydney Harbour in a hurry...
AC

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph." To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 12:55    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Yes I have a 5 megapixl. I also printed that nasa shot on our commercial printer Fu--ing incredible shot. I'll see if we can get any local footage.
----- Original Message -----
From: Phil Smith To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Sent: Tuesday, March 08, 2005 11:41 AM  Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Kelly,
do you have a digital camera?
[snip]

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 14:18    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all,
The only two TC's below 910 Hpa according to my sources are the Bathurst Bay Cyclone in 1899 and the Mackay cyclone in 1914.Both did awesome damage despite the very sparse population at the time.I thinlk there was also a Townsville cyclone in the 1920's but I don not know how intense it
was.Ingrid looks likely to cause a huge storm surge and a lot of wind damage when it crosses the coast.
Gavin O'Brien/  SSWW/  Canberra

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 14:34    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
It is usual for pressure to be higher than normal prior to a cyclone, indeed , I was always suspicious when the Barometer was higher than usual in the wet season when I lived in the tropics. Having experienced Althea (Townsville) and a Philippines Typhoon neither with the power of Ingrid, I
would not like to be in the danger zone of this one. Good luck Kelly.
Gavin/  Canberra
>From: "G8.106" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
>Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid   Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2005 12:36:17 +1100
>Hi Kelly..
>An interesting observation in regard to pressure..The central area if Ingrid has a very tight pressure gradient falling from near 1000hpa to 908hpa at the centre over less than about 100 kilometres...[snip]

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 16:55    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi Kelly and other Ingrid watchers.
At the very latest, Cyclone Ingrid is likely to cross near Cape Melville North of Cooktown.
Also with it crossing near Cape Melville, will it possibly be recording the highest wind gust ever observed on Australian mainland? And supersede Vance's record in 1999 at 267klm/hr.
Today in Townsville it is overcast with high cloud from the outflow of the storm.
Looking at the structure of this storm it certainly looks impressive. Not many reach Cat 5 status up there.
Regards Shane. Townsville.

From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 17:17    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi all.
Apologies, Cape Melville isn't recorded, I had it confused with Cape Flattery. I bit my tongue lol.
Shane.

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 19:20    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
Hi Shane,
I would be very careful if you want to be at the landfall of Ingrid as she is a very dangerous storm indeed .Looks like a huge storm surge which might go Kilometres inland and very powerful winds.This is one I'd miss if I was up there.Althea was bad enough but this one is much more powerful.I remember what Althea did to Townsville and she would have been a Cat 3.
Gavin
>From: "Shane Williams" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
>Subject: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ??? Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2005 07:23:21 +1000
[snip]
>Cyclone Ingrid moving WNW at 6klm/hr. Too far north for ant action. I am going up there Thrusday to take piccies if I can get there.
[snip]
>Cheers Shane

From: "Super Elmo" To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 19:35    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
It is going to be interesting to see Ingrid on the new RADAR map when it hits the coast.
Looks like it is going to be a nasty one.
Kane.

From: Robert To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 20:45    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] RADAR Upgrade at BOM ???
If i lived in the path of the TC i would have got out!... I don`t mind the new radar images.. I don`t like the color`s used for the background tho...
Gavin O'Brien wrote:

From: Neville Gibb To: Aussie-Pacific Weather List [austpacwx]
Date: 03/08/2005 21:13    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
On Tue, 8 Mar 2005, Clyve H. wrote:
>...oddly there does not seem to be very much media interest in this storm?...
Yeah, here in NZ ,Tuesday evening's TV1 weather presenter said TC Ingrid may cause a few showers along the N Qld coast. Talk about understatement!
Seems this has the potential to become a national disaster!
Neville

From: Carl Smith To: "Phil Smith"
Date: 03/08/2005 22:35   Subject: Re: current.htm - Ingrid #9 header - watch zone extended
Hi Phil.
>Hi Carl,
[snip]
>I reckon the folks around C Melville might find it so windy tomorrow that it would blow the sugar out of their tea!
My friends are living at [property name edited out], a 150 acre property N of Bloomfield and S of Cooktown at the base of a mountain, which is exposed to the SE - I also lived there for some years during the mid-1980's.
They live in very tropical housing - Tony has only two walls on his house to protect it from the prevailing southeasterlies, although he does have solar powered satellite broadband - John is a technophobe and lives in a pocket of rainforest in a house which has no walls.
The original farm house is about 100 years old and is full of termites.
Tony is taking his wife and kids to a substantial shed in Rossville owned by his brother Don for the next couple of days - the way Don builds things may not look great in an aesthetic sense, but he is very aware of how structurally sound things should be in a cyclone prone region, so it should hold up to just about anything.
John is staying put come hell or high water - he is a recluse who lives entirely off his garden and the tropical fruit orchard, and almost never leave the property for any reason.
BTW, have a look at how fast the rain is flying through the radar loop at http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml
Carl.
>Phil
><><

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 15:46    Subject: [austpacwx] T.C Ingrid.
Hi Gavin and all.
Ingrid is too far north now to even get there due to the road infrastructure.
We had heavy rain this morning but now all fine, only high level outflow cirrus at the moment.
Looking forward to going to Cairns for the day to get some pics. I have the day off so what a perfect time to spend it up in Cairns. Better be home by 4pm to pick up the Mrs and baby back from Brisbane.
Was a lovely week so far hehehhehehhee.
All over the Townsville Bulletin and Cairns Post there was much media attention about the storm. I have kept them for memories of this rarity storm.
Hopefully I can snap some nice pics and post them to the website for all to see.
Cheers All.

From: Roger Edson To: tcdg
Date: 03/09/2005 17:33    Subject: Re: New page for recording INGRID
Hi Phil,
I have one. This is an earlier image of Ingrid that I really like since it really shows the 'classic' signature of a Cat5 TC in the MI.
BTW, watching the cold dome develop in the IRbd curve was pretty amazing during that 12 hour period, as well!
Roger
--- Phil Smith  wrote:
> Hi all,
> As INGRID approaches the East coast of Cape York it seems to be an interesting enough system to record some info about it. Therefore I have commenced a page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/ingrid.htm so that I can do just that.
> I shall pick out some relevant e-mails from this and other groups, but if any of you have anything of interest regarding TC INGRID that you can forward to me, I shall be most appreciative.
> Thanks,
> Phil
> <><

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:03    Subject: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi all...Just heard the SBS weather forecast (about 9.55pm) with an interesting comment by the announcer...quote..."Queenslander can now breath a sigh of relief with the downgrading of TC Ingrid which will now only bring gales on Thursday morning with gusts to 250kph!!!!!!!....would someone please send help in respect to these announcements...regards Clyve H

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:13    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi Clyve,
These fools should be given a swift kick where it hurts.A strong letter to SBS management by people or communities which experince Ingrid might bring them to their senses , particularly if some one sues them for damages!
Gavin /SSWW /Canberra

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:13    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
Hi Clyve, Maybe from whatever planet this guy is from, average wind speeds must be averaging 200klm/hr on a normal day.
Cheers Shane.

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:22    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] SBS weather for Ingrid
At 10:13 PM 9/03/2005, you wrote:
>Hi Clyve, Maybe from whatever planet this guy is from, average wind speeds must be averaging 200klm/hr on a normal day.
Maybe he's from Saturn or Neptune where winds can be up to 1800-2000 km/h ;-)
250 km/h is no bloody picnic! (sheesh)
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/09/2005 19:56    Subject: [austpacwx] WA Cyclone Formation.
Hi all, while all the focus is on Ingrid right now, W.A looks as though it will be their turn for action. A tropical formation located off the N.W coast is expected to become a Tropical cyclone within 6 to 18 hours.
Also near the Solomon Islands another T.D is moving S.S.W. March is surely becoming the most active month of the Cyclone season for sure.
Shane.

[Editor's Note: I shall include references to Cyclone Willy here as well, since it is all happening together]

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/09/2005 22:19   Subject: Here's 23S ready to go
Looks like one on either side of Australia!
The sat imagery says it all...
I like the analysis of the wind field that matches the fairly large light center (for now). Intensity should come with a tightening up of this area.
Roger
Roger Edson
Tropical Meteorologist

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG:
Date: 03/10/2005 00:48    Subject: Ingrid - Weipa radar
Hi All.
Ingrid has undergone significant intensification during the last few hours.
You can watch Ingrid come ashore during the next few hours near Lockhart River on the Weipa radar loop at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR182.loop.shtml
Regards,  Carl.

From: Carl Smith To: Phil Smith
Date: 03/10/2005 01:43    Subject: Willy map online
Hi Phil.
I've put a map of Willy online ... sounds almost crude!
Carl.
[Editor's Note: The Willy map is carried on both our sites at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm and http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm]

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:11    Subject: Re: Here's 23S ready to go
Hi Roger,
this is the one the UK MET model has been forecasting for several days and that I mentioned at the time.
The model has been shifting the predicted track more westwards away from WA.
Let's wait & see.
Cheers
Patrick
> Message du 09/03/05 15:25  De : "Roger Edson"
> A : "Typhoon Gang TCDG"     Objet : Here's 23S ready to go
> Looks like one on either side of Australia!
> The sat imagery says it all... [snip]

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:12    Subject: Re: Ingrid - Weipa radar
Thanks Carl.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:35    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
Potent without a doubt and compact.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 03:56    Subject: TC WILLY
Upcoming TC 23S has been named WILLY by PERTH.
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:13S119E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1614UTC 9 MARCH 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 995 hPa located at 1600UTC
Within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal one south [13.1S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero east [118.0E]
and moving west at 8 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Tropical Cyclone Willy is expected to intensify with 30/40 knot winds causing
rough to very rough seas, moderate swell increasing to 45/60 knot winds by 10
March 1600UTC. Seas rising to high on an increasing swell.
At 0400UTC 10 March 13.2 south 115.9 east 985hPa
At 1600UTC 10 March 13.6 south 114.0 east 975hPa
Next warning issued at 2300 UTC 09 March 2005
WEATHER PERTH
Patrick

From: "Kane Quinnell" To: Phil Smith
Date: 03/10/2005 05:44    Subject: Ingrid crossing the coast for your web page.
____
From: Phil Smith  Sent: Wednesday, 9 March 2005 18:00
To: Aus-Pac-WX   Subject: [austpacwx] New page for TC INGRID info.
Hi all,
[snip]
I shall pick out some relevant e-mails from this and other groups, but if any of you have anything of interest regarding TC INGRID that you can forward to me, I shall be most appreciative.
Thanks,
Phil
<><

From: Michael Padua  To: Cyclone Group tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 07:07    Subject: 2nd NWP Storm forming???
Dear Jim and all,
It looks like as TCs Willy and Ingrid rotates clockwise down under, a new NWP storm is likely to develop in a couple of days as shown by MRF/GFS and NOGAPS model.
Will observe on this one. Mindanao shall be a threat on this one.
Any inputs on this one Jim?
Cheers,
Michael =;-)
--
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/10/2005 08:25    Subject: News on TC Ingrid
Dear All,
The following URLs point to news releases about TC Ingrid. Some interesting remarks in the first two, but basically it's all a massive non-event, so far. Simon Clarke & Phil Smith, you might want to look at these for your reports/web-pages.
Fears of heavy rain and flooding might not come to pass, as the latest Weipa radar-image shows only moderate rain at most. Still, that might change as the cyclone weakens.
Jeff C -- when was the last Cat-5 or equivalent to threaten the east coast of Qld? Must go back a fair way...
Regards,
Matthew S.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12488339-26618,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12489672-26618,00.html
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2005/03/10/1110316120415.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12498539-2,00.html

From: "Matt Pearce" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 09:39    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Willy
Willy certainly has good potential to bring some widespread useful rain to much of the western half of WA(and possibly southern Australia into next week). The key feature is the approach of the strong cold front and associated long wave trough towards the end of the weekend. This will strengthen the jetstream across WA, which will tap into outflow moisture from Willy. While the models disagree with the exact track of the cyclone(EC keeps it off the coast and GFS pulls it inland) they would both have good rainfall potential from Sunday onwards. Then as the jetstream strengthens across southern Australia next week and interacts with the deepening surface trough, there should be the chance of at least a light rainband developing.
Then of course there's the potential of Ingrid making its way right across to WA and following in Willy's footsteps...
Matt

From: Neville Gibb To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 10:22    Subject: [austpacwx] TC Willy
Just for the record...
IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 6:55 am WST on Thursday, 10 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 1] was located at 6am WST near 14.0S
117.5E, that is approximately 710 kilometres north of Port Hedland, and was
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours but will not
affect the WA coast within the next 48 hours.
The next advice will be issued at 1pm WST.
Best guesses?
Neville

From: "Bruce Harper" To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 10:23    Subject: RE: News on TC Ingrid
Matthew,
Assuming Jeff C is still a bit busy I'll answer that question:
"officially" possibly the 1918 "Innisfail" cyclone south of Cairns but the data is sparse
"unofficially" TC Aivu in 1989 (T7.5) but it became sheared and was cat 3 at landfall south of Ayr
Prior to that is the famous "Bathurst Bay" in 1899 at 914hPa measured, just south of where Ingrid passed.
At least Ingrid has now provided a good scenario as to how the Bathurst Bay storm may have formed so far north ie initial vorticity from the west and then reversing. Most storms forming north of Cooktown at those longitudes have tended to be rather weak.
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-tcdg On Behalf Of Matthew Saxby   Sent: Thursday, 10 March 2005 10:26 AM
> To: TCDG   Subject: News on TC Ingrid
> Dear All,
[snip]
> Jeff C -- when was the last Cat-5 or equivalent to threaten the east coast of Qld? Must go back a fair way...
> Regards,
> Matthew S.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 11:14    Subject: TC 23S/WILLY
Based on last MI I would be surprised if this TC would not intensify into an intense TC (100kt and more ) later on.
The forecast track is shifted more southward than anticipated and then PERTH has released a cyclone advice.
Patrick

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG:
Date: 03/10/2005 12:54    Subject: BoM quote of the month
Hi All.
If you were looking at the right time, you may have caught this piece of news from the BoM Perth:
IDW10800
UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 7:05am WST on Thursday the 10th of March 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins are current for TC Willy, please refer to latest bulletin. TC Willy is not expected to affect the coat within the next 48 hours.
No other tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next three days.
Regards,
Carl.

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 14:34    Subject: Re: News on TC Ingrid
Dear Bruce,
> I'll answer that question:
> "officially" possibly the 1918 "Innisfail" cyclone south of Cairns but the data is sparse
Yeah, well, AWS's were a bit thin on the ground in them thar days :) Though it is known from the damage that that one was a Cat-5, only one of three (that I know of) to have struck the E Qld coast at that intensity. (The other two are the Mackay Cyclone, also 1918, and Mahina of 1899). Good grief -- I had no idea it was so long since a cat-5 had actually threatened the coast.
> "unofficially" TC Aivu in 1989 (T7.5) but it became sheared and was cat 3 at landfall south of Ayr
I used to have a complete warning series on that one, till I lent them out and never got them back :( But I recall Aivu wasn't posted at Cat-5 in real-time, and was only post-analysed as one. At least Ingrid was a real-time cat-5. On the other hand, Aivu must have been a cat-5 when in full warning status. So the benchmark is therefore April 1989, rather than March 1918.
> Prior to that is the famous "Bathurst Bay" in 1899 at 914hPa measured, just south of where Ingrid passed.
...a.k.a. Mahina...
> At least Ingrid has now provided a good scenario as to how the Bathurst Bay storm may have formed so far north ie initial vorticity from the west and then reversing. Most storms forming north of Cooktown at those longitudes have tended to be rather weak.
Though I've always thought that Mahina formed well east of the Peninsula and travelled in from the E/NE. The wild and woolly "Douglas Mawson" cyclone of Mar-Apr 1923 is a case in point, even allowing for the fact that it looped through Torres Strait after coming from who-knows-where. That one was no damp squib, I have Hector Holthouse's account of it and I'm virtually certain it was Cat-3+. Quite a nasty storm. For the uninitiated, it gets its name from that of the small steamer it sank (w/out trace) in the Gulf of Carpentaria after crossing the Peninsula. It also wrecked the mission on Groote Eylandt and absolutely flattened the Torres Strait Islands.
Thanks for the information, Bruce, I'll keep it on file.
Best Regards,
Matthew S.

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/10/2005 21:41    Subject: [austpacwx] Solomon Low
Hi All, There maybe some interesting developments over the Northern Coral Sea by early next week.
Will this low follow the same path as Ingrid? Or will it be travelling west and be further south.
We will see, the season hasn't finished yet up here.
Shane

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/10/2005 23:06    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear All,
AIVU....
> > Where did that name come from??? Was it assigned by Port Moresby???
With a name like that, where else could it come from :) BNE never assigned that one, that I know for certain; the name AIVU never figured on any of their
name-lists, they've always used English or European names.
Just one thing -- who names TC's over the Solomons west of 160 E and north of 10 S? They don't seem to be part of either BNE's or PNG's AoR, though as I recall they all seem to get BNE names. Can anyone clarify?
Yours,
Matthew
BTW, did those emails from my alter-egos "burma_watch" and "polushka" get through?

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/10/2005 23:27    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Matthew,
The boundary between the PNG and Brisbane areas is irregular in shape, but continuous, so there is no gap. See links below:
http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/au/area/pg.png
http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/au/area/brisbane.png
Julian

From: Jeff Callaghan  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 00:19    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Aivu was named by now retired PNG forecaster Ken Ona. I seem to recall that   he named it after his mother in law. A post analyses with better sat pic data available when the BT was created shows that it was a T7.5 - CMG to CDG surround (colder than -77) and a rare WMG eye (warmer than +9) hourly from 0000UTC 3 Apr 1989 to 0600UTC 3 Apr 1989. We will eventually get around to fixing up the BT data
Jeff

From: KHoarau  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 04:32    Subject: Re : Re: TC Aivu (130Ko)
Hi Jeff and all,
Here, is my estimate concerning TC Aivu.
                         JTWC Personal
1989033106, 104S, 1544E,  25  25
1989033112,  99S, 1538E,  25  30
1989033118, 100S, 1532E,  25  35
1989040100, 103S, 1527E,  35  45
1989040106, 110S, 1524E,  40  50
1989040112, 118S, 1519E,  45  55
1989040118, 129S, 1514E,  50  60
1989040200, 139S, 1508E,  60  70
1989040206, 149S, 1502E,  65  75
1989040212, 156S, 1496E,  75  85
1989040218, 160S, 1494E,  85 105
1989040300, 164S, 1492E, 110 125
1989040306, 172S, 1491E, 115 145
1989040312, 179S, 1488E, 120 135
1989040318, 185S, 1484E, 110 125
Jeff, I do agree with you : TC Aivu did display a satellite signature almost at DT 7.5 between 2100Z on 2 April(the eye was already at +15C) and 0600Z on 3th.
This Super cyclone was at its best around 0400Z on 3th with a warm eye of +20.4C and a White surrounding ring(-70C/-75C) while the CMG ring(-76C to –80C) was a little too short(0.45°) to be fully taken into account DT was at 7+. As Aivu was at 75kt on 2th at 0600Z, the Model Expected-T-number (MET) was at 6.0 with PAT at 6.5(MET +0.5) on 3th at 0600Z. So the T-number was based on DT 7+ or 145 kt.
Even if Aivu was a rather small cyclone, it is difficult to intensify it more quickly to avoid to break the Dvorak’s constraints.
Super Cyclone Zoe on 27 December 2002 had a WMG eye and a CMG ring more than 0.5° for more than 6 hours when it had been estimated at 155 kt.
http://www.jean-paul.hoarau.com/Page2.html
Karl

From: KHoarau To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 06:49    Subject: Re : Re: WMO centres in the SH: different DVORAK tables? (120 Ko)
Hi Jeff, Bruce and all,
Jeff and Bruce, I do agree with you, and I found in the WPAC during the recon period examples of small typhoons having higher SLP for a giving MSW than those in the Atkinson-Holliday's wind-pressure relationship.
But there are cases too with higher SLP even for large typhoons but they formed between December and May at a period when the environmental pressures are higher than during the monsoon period.
Here is the most significant case I found. It is Typhoon Marge in December 1986. This typhoon was moving in a westerly direction.
Look at the recon data :
Wind at 700 mb Extrapolated
Date     SLP Dir Speed surface wind(kt)
19-0020Z 974 120  88   79
  -1110Z 964 120  98   88
  -1341Z 959 140 105   95
20-2121Z 954 090 127  114
  -2322Z 947 320 115  103(weak semi-circle)
I computed the surface winds and I used the same ratio used by the NHC in the Atlantic : Surface wind = 700 mb wind x 90%
It looks like Typhoon Marge had an intensity of 115 kt according the two recon made on 20 Dec at 2121Z and 2330Z.
           JTWC  Personal
19-0000Z : 70 kt  80 kt
  -0600Z : 75 kt  85 kt
  -1200Z : 80 kt  90 kt
  -1800Z : 90 kt  95 kt
20-0000Z : 90 kt  95 kt
  -0600Z : 95 kt 100 kt
  -1200Z : 90 kt 105 kt
  -1800Z : 90 kt 110 kt
21-0000Z : 90 kt 115-120 kt
Actually, Marge did not reach an intensity only of 95 kt (T5+) but 115 kt (T6) !!! And the 947 mb/115 kt looks more like in the hurricanes in the Atlantic than in the typhoon (925 mb/115kt).
Obviously, I have a couple of basic Dvorak enhancement pictures to show that Marge had a satellite presentation at least of T6.
Since 0600Z on 20 Dec, Marge displayed a satellite presentation of DT 6 with a MG eye(-42C) in a White ring(-70C/-75C). And from 1200Z to 0000Z on 21 Dec, DT was at 6.5 with an OW eye (-25C) in a White ring. And as T was at 4.5 24hrs earlier, MET was at 6 on 21 at 0000Z !!!
So, JTWC did not reanalyse the recon data when they reanalysed the Best Track Data around the year 2000. And Marge is not an isolated case !!!
Still a lot of work to do in the WPAC data base to make it more reliable !!!
Karl
>For midgets or near midgets like Ingrid we use a a higher CP for a given intensity. eg Ada in the Whitsunday Islands in 1970 had a CP measured of 960hPa but did cat 4 damage. Likewise Tracy had annbsp; high CP of 952hPa.
>We wrote this up (with Roger Smith) in the Sept 1998 issue of the Aust Met Mag. on The relationshipnbsp; between Max surface winds and CP in TCs
>Jeff

From: "Paul Yole" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 11:01    Subject: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hey All,
With all the TC activity up North atm, I have found a song that can relate to it quite well.
Sung by Graeme Connor's, the song is called "Cyclone Season" and is off his "North" CD.
A nice listen :o)
PaulY

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 13:00    Subject: [austpacwx] Ingrid
Hi all the reformed eye of Ingrid has now shown up on the 256K radar for Gove and is moving due west looks to be cat 2/3 and deepening so we will have a good look at the ye feature over the next 6 to 12 hours regards Clyve H.

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 13:03    Subject: [austpacwx] Fw: Ingrid correctum
Hi all the reformed eye of Ingrid has now shown up on the 256K radar east of Gove and is moving due west, looks to be cat 2/3 and deepening so we will have a good look at the eye feature over the next 6 to 12 hours on its approach to northeast top end NT regards Clyve H.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 14:45    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
The eye of the re intensifying TC 22P i visible on the GOVE's scope.
Looks like the second landfall may be more felt than the first one.
http://www.bom.gov.au
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST Friday 11 March 2005
A  CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between MANINGRIDA and GROOTE EYLANDT, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 1 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 3 was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 250 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy and 330 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula, moving west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour towards
the coast. The cyclone is slowly intensifying.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour are expected
to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and NHULUNBUY later this evening and extend towards MANINGRIDA
by Saturday afternoon. GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN
and the TIWI ISLANDS, by Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and MANINGRIDA.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 1 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 139.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 175 kilometres per hour slowly intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 3
. Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is expected to
affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 pm CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:08    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear All,
Jeff Callaghan wrote:
> Aivu was named by now retired PNG forecaster Ken Ona.
Thanks for this, Jeff. Another of Life's Little Mysteries solved, I theenk.
> I seem to recall that he named it after his mother in law.
And how long has he hated her :)
> A post analyses with better sat pic data available when the BT was created shows that it was a T7.5 - CMG to CDG surround (colder than -77) and a rare WMG eye (warmer than +9) hourly from 0000UTC 3 Apr 1989 to 0600UTC 3 Apr 1989.
That sounds like something I wouldn't want to meet on a dark night. What max winds would that have been, if it had got into the public warnings?
[snip]
BR,    Matthew S.

From: Matthew Saxby To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:17    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear Julian (and all),
Thanks for the update, I was under the impression (probably based on past practice) that BoM BNE's northern boundary was 10S. Now I see that is not so,which explains why BNE names TC's over the Solomons.
BR,   Matthew S.

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:18    Subject: TC 23S/WILLY
Jean Paul Hoarau (Karl's brother) has put online a very nice ms Met 5 picture of TC 23S at 0252Z the 11th.
http://www.jean-paul.hoarau.com
Patrick

From: "Simon Clarke" To: <tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 15:55    Subject: RE: TC Aivu
Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
But I stand to be corrected on this.
Cheers   Simon

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 17:59    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hi Paul, That's an oldie but a goodie that tune. He was born and raised in Mackay. That song was of course as you said from the album "North" in 1988.
The ABC Radio used to play that tune at the beginning of the cyclone season
Cheers Shane.
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Yole   Sent: Friday, 11 March 2005 1:01 PM
To: austpacwx   Subject: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Hey All,
With all the TC activity up North atm, I have found a song that can relate to it quite well.
Sung by Graeme Connor's, the song is called "Cyclone Season" and is off his "North" CD.
A nice listen :o)
PaulY

From: "Keith Barnett" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 18:22    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
And I recall reading a story about a tornado whose wholesale destruction included a broken record entitled 'Stormy Weather'.

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/11/2005 20:42    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
Dear Simon (and all),
> Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
There was one called Watorea in April of 1976, which would have been a PNG name -- probably the first in Aus waters.
BR,    Matthew S.

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 20:49    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] QLD cyclone and music
Keith and all,
Your remark about the record "Stormy Weather" jolted my memory and sure enough I have found the reference in a book by Frank W. Lane called "The Elements Rage"(David & Charles-Newton Abbot, Plymouth UK , 1966, p 41.
I quote;
" Human beings are certainly carried aloft by tornadoes.During a tornado at El Dorado, Kansas, on June 10,1958, a woman was sucked-or blown-through a window and carried 60 feet.  When she landed she found a gramophone record titled "Stormy Weather"- broken."
Some of the other stories almost defy the imagination but Lane quotes good authority to support the stories.Sadly the book is long out of print.
Gavin   /SSWW Canberra

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/11/2005 21:05    Subject: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi all, latest flood warnings issued are below for Northern Qld.
I will take a gander tomorrow up north to see what's doing and take some pictures for you all to see.
If I cant get past the Tully River, there won't be much to look at.
Cheers Shane.
Rainfalls up to 200m have been recorded along the coastal strip between Cairns and Ingham since 9am Friday and rivers have commenced to rise in the area.
Heavy rainfall is likely to continue throughout tonight and into Saturday and will result in significant river rises and possible flooding in coastal rivers and streams. River systems likely to be affected include the Barron, Mulgrave, Russell, Johnstone and Tully Rivers and adjacent coastal streams.
The next warning will be issued about 6am Saturday.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/11/2005 23:03    Subject: Ingrid Cat 4 - Gove radar
Hi All.
Ingrid now Cat 4 - see BoM warning below.
Those online at the moment can watch the south eyewall of Ingrid hit Nhulunbuy in the next hour or so on the Gove radar at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR092.loop.shtml
Regards,
Carl.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between CROKER ISLAND and ALYANGULA, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 11.30pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 4 was centred
in the Gulf
of Carpentaria about 65 kilometres east of NHULUNBUY and 140 kilometres south
southeast of CAPE WESSEL, moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour
towards NHULUNBUY. This very dangerous cyclone is continuing to intensify.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour are expected
to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY in the next three hours, and extend to ELCHO
ISLAND early in the morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently developing on the
coast between ALYANGULA and NHULUNBUY and will extend along the north coast to
CROKER ISLAND by Saturday evening.
GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS, by
Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND with higher than usual tides west to CROKER ISLAND.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 11.30 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 137.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 955 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is
expected to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY in the next three hours.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 1 am CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 02:36    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
From GOVE I noted gust at 102k/h and 994mb.
The eye of the powerful TC is just near Cape Wilberforce North west of GOVE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 3:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between CROKER ISLAND and ALYANGULA, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DARWIN, including the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 2.30am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 4 was located about 30
kilometres north northeast of NHULUNBUY and 145 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour. This very dangerous cyclone is
continuing to intensify.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour are affecting the
coast near NHULUNBUY, and are expected to extend to ELCHO ISLAND during the
morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between ALYANGULA and NHULUNBUY and will extend along the north coast
to CROKER ISLAND by Saturday evening.
GALES may extend further to the west, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS, by
Sunday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND with higher than usual tides west to CROKER ISLAND.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 2.30 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.9 degrees South 136.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is
affecting the coast near NHULUNBUY, and are expected to extend to ELCHO ISLAND
during the morning..
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 4 am CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (INGRID) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 137.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 137.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 11.8S0 136.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 11.4S6 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.2S4 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.2S4 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 137.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (INGRID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22P HAS EXPERIENCED EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED
ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 22P WILL
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
Patrick

From: "Gary Padgett" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 02:56    Subject: Re: TC Aivu
> > Aivu, I believe was the second name assigned by Port Moresby. 'Agi' was the first a few years earlier.
> There was one called Watorea in April of 1976, which would have been a PNG name
> -- probably the first in Aus waters.
The last three were Adel in 1993, Upia in 2002, and Epi in 2003. Have there been any more PNG storms? Six TCs in 30 yrs makes you wonder why even have a TCWC there. Two named by Brisbane in 1972, Hannah and Ida, would now likely have PNG names.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 03:25    Subject: RE: TC 22P/INGRID
Metars from the last hour from Gove:
YPGV 111900Z 10037G49KT 0800 SCT008 SCT011 OVC120 25/25
Q0996 RMK DISTANT LIGHTNING= (SPECI)
YPGV 111830Z 11040G51KT 0800 FEW008 SCT011 OVC120 25/25
Q0995 RMK LIGHTNING TO E. 59KT GUST RECORDED= (SPECI)
Boris

From: "Bruce Harper" To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 06:31    Subject: Ingrid imitates Tracy?
In the past 8 hours Ingrid has gotten serious. As it neared the Gove Peninsula it rapidly tightened up and has intensified in a way reminiscent of Tracy in 1974 as it approached Darwin. With an eye diameter of about 15km and an Rgales less than 80km its obviously packing some winds in the core.
I've been running some coastal storm surge predictions, which have doubled from about 1.7m when it was a 970hPa to about 3.5m now in some areas.
Some of the models have it persisting as far as Darwin ..
Best Regards,
Bruce Harper

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 07:06    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID
Ingrid continues to lash Top End
Saturday, 12 March 2005. 08:26 (AEDT)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 07:26 (ACST)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 07:26 (AEST)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 08:26 (ACDT)Saturday, 12 March 2005. 05:26 (AWST)
Cyclone Ingrid is heading towards the Northern Territory. (Satellite image taken at 10:30pm on March 11.)Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is continuing to bring torrential rain and wind to the north-east, Arnhem Land coast in the Northern Territory.
The remote Northern Territory town of Nuhlunbuy is being lashed by heavy winds and rain from tropical cyclone Ingrid, which has been upgraded to a category 4 system.
The category 4 warning includes coastal and island communities between Cape Don and Cape Shield.
At 4:30am ACST, Cyclone Ingrid was was located about 40 kilometres north north-west of Nhulunbuy and 110 kilometres east of Elcho Island, moving west at 20 kilometres per hour.
Senior forecaster at the cyclone warning centre Graham King says the highest wind gusts have reached 260 kilometres an hour, but they did not hit the town.
"Cyclone ingrid has passed about 30 kilometres north of the township of Nhulunbuy," he said.
"The strongest winds recorded at Nhulunbuy were about 110 kilometres an hour.
"It's a category 4, top end of a category 4 cyclone. Tracy was a Category 4 cyclone is the best way of doing a direct comparison."
Mr King believes the cyclone has reached a plateau in power, but will continue tracking west across the Top End coast in the next few days.
The residents of Nhulunbuy are continuing to take shelter.
Police say it is too early to know if there is damage, as people have not moved from their shelters or homes.
About 250 people are in the town's main cyclone shelter near the hospital.
Jane Martin lives on a boat and says she is glad she has brought her children to the shelter, which is a much safer place.
"I'm just so scared for all my friends out there, I really am," she said.
"I'd like to be more places than here, but you know, I hope everybody's alright."
Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on the coast between Cape Shield and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy, and will extend along the north coast to Croker Island by tonight.
Gales may extend further to the west, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands by Sunday afternoon.
The bureau warns dangerously high tides could cause extensive flooding at the coast between Cape Shield and Goulburn Island, with higher than usual tides west to Croker Island.
Heavy rain may also cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises in the northern Top End

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 07:26    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Solomon Low
Hi Shane I agree with you this TD is worth watching
Gavin   /SSWW Canberra
>From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
>Subject: [austpacwx] Solomon Low    Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 23:41:23 +1000
>Hi All, There maybe some interesting developments over the Northern Coral Sea by early next week.
>Will this low follow the same path as Ingrid? Or will it be travelling west and be further south.
>We will see, the season hasn't finished yet up here.
>Shane

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph."  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 08:19    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
I've got over 400mm rain in 2.5 days here in cape trib she's a bit wet.

From: "G8.106" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 08:44    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi Kelly et/al impressive amounts of rain!...The ITCZ remains to the north of your area, however there is a deep east/northeast airflow into the northeast QLD coast so there is a good chance that heavy showers/storms may perists over the next severals days...also there is an enhanced convective area near 153E and around 12 south northeast Coral Sea and over SST's near 30c, this system lacks low level convergence at the moment and upper levels are not fully favourable for imediate deelopment but worth keeping an eye on
regards Clyve H Woodend Vic.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 09:20    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Yeah some seriously amazing rainfall up on the north QLD coast overnight...324mm at a place called Copperlode Dam just inland from Cairns and 342mm at somewhere called The Boulders just up the coast from Innisfail.
As Clyve mentioned, a nice convergence zone at the moment feeding onto the north QLD coast to the south of the monsoon trough. Its certainly all happening up in the tropics after a quiet season so far!
Matt

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 09:53    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
Hi Kelly, it has been wet up your way. Will take a peek tomorrow. I was a bit tied up today with the young bub. Shane.

From: Carl Smith  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 09:31    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID now Cat 5!
Hi All.
TC Ingrid has intensified to a very destructive Cat 5 system since it cleared the islands on the NE tip of the Northern Territory.
I guess the people of Darwin are getting a little edgy about this one!
Regards,  Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
POINT STUART and CAPE SHIELD, including the COBURG PENINSULA.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including the TIWI
ISLANDS and
DARWIN.
At 10.30am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 5 was located about 170
kilometres east northeast of MANINGRIDA and 105 kilometres east northeast of
MILINGIMBI, moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is no longer
affecting the coast. However, VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may develop further west
along the coast later.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour continue to be experienced on the
coast between CAPE SHIELD and MILINGIMBI, including NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND,
and will extend along the north coast to CROKER ISLAND by tonight.
GALES may extend west to DARWIN by Sunday evening and further west to
DALY RIVER
MOUTH by Monday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast
between ELCHO
ISLAND and CAPE DON.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 10.30 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 135.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 290 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 938 hectoPascals
REPEATING: VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS have now moved west of ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE
WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between POINT STUART
and CAPE SHIELD, including the COBURG PENINSULA.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 2 pm CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: "Clyve Herbert"   To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:25    Subject: [austpacwx] INGRID
Ho all tropo's Interesting going's on with Ingrid a possible multiple eye wall developing the primary wall has almost become cut off with a possible second eye wall developing outside which can be seen in radar but not sat pic...estimate central pressure near 933hpa and still deepening..regards Clyve H

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:54    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
The Gove Radar hasn't updated for a few hours so we can't see the eye anymore . must be on windfinding duties . :doh: why now! :-)
James Holbeach
Lodge Operation / Promotion Manager
---------------------------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club Inc.
Mt Hotham Victoria Australia

From: "Peter Konnecke"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 10:57    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
James,
One would imagine that finding wind in Gove would not be a hard thing to do right now. :-)
I'm a fan of the old wet finger in the air trick ... however this method is not recommended in a Cat 5 storm :-)
Peter

From: "Shane Williams" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:24    Subject: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi all, Interesting to hear on ABC radio earlier today that 70% of Darwin's building structures are not Category 3 or more cyclone proof.
In general, when It comes down to flying debris ect, there isn't much you can do, however from what I have heard today nearly a 3rd of Darwin isn't ready for a possible assault from the mother of storms, a CAT 5 cyclone.
While I hope this doesn't eventuate, Darwin maybe in trouble over the next few days. With memories of Cyclone Tracy vivid in the older generation, it can be very easy to become complacent.
Ingrid is still heading in a general Westerly direction, similar in size as Tracy but with a lot more punch that's for sure.
We'll see how this pans out over the next 48 hrs or so.
Regards, Shane.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:27    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
Its strange that its offline now...I'm hoping its just for windfinding although this is definitely not one of the times listed on the BoM site that windfinding normally takes place. They may well just have decided not to do it earlier cos it was too dangerous as the cyclone was passing by. If it is windfinding it should be coming back online within the next 10 mins or so.
Lets hope so...
Matt

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:33    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
Funny we must have been checking the windfinding times at the same time, I've infact still got my browser open to the page!
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/#windfinding   LOL
Anyway, That was the only possible reason I could see . so yeah, hopefully it is back up soon . if not we will just have to wait till it appears on Darwin / Kathrines scans.
James Holbeach

From: "Keith Barnett" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:36    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
The Gove radar is showing an image timestamped 0130 UTC. About 2 hours old .

From: "James Holbeach" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 11:51    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
Ok it is back, but the eye is almost off the 256k scan now .
James Holbeach

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/12/2005 11:42    Subject: Ingrid
Following from Florida.
04:00UTC
Suggest "squaring-off" of outer bands sign of potential turn.
Cyclone looks to be more west now.
This square shape to storm usually indicative of either turn or weakening soon.
Rare instance can also mean further strengthening.
More west means closer to Darwin...
- Appleweb

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 13:18    Subject: [austpacwx] Threesome?
Hi tropos....Is it possible that we may have a threesome TC event over the Australian region?, a developing convective area has appeared over the northeast Coral Sea in the past 6 or so hours...regards Clyve H.

From: "James Holbeach"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:08    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
The GFS and Meso LAPS models have Ingrid hitting Darwin head on. They disagree on the time though . GFS says about 60hrs LAPS says about 36hrs.
GASP shows it slinking off into Arnhem land, but GASP has not been too accurate for this system . so far.
James Holbeach

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:00    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Threesome?
At 04:18 PM 12/03/2005, you wrote:
>Hi tropos....Is it possible that we may have a threesome TC event over the Australian region?, a developing convective area has appeared over the northeast Coral Sea in the past 6 or so hours...regards Clyve H.
Sounds like it's on the cards. :)
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 14:39    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Threesome?
The B.O.M seem to disagree with those thoughts.
There are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral Sea at the present time.
The chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Coral Sea during the next 3 days is low.
Who knows, let's wait and see.
Shane.

From: "Bussy"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:11    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
What Category was Tracy?

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:17    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
At 06:11 PM 12/03/2005, you wrote:
>What Category was Tracy?
4
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: Appleweb  To: SmithP
Date: 03/12/2005 15:20    Subject: Re: Ingrid
In a message dated 3/11/2005 11:48:31 PM Eastern Standard Time,
SmithP@ics.edu.hk writes:
Received,
Thanks.
Who is "Appleweb"?
Just my e-mail address. I should have used another name to avoid potential spam.
Looks like Ingrid has beaten the odds and intensified after showing square borders with her outer bands. Square borders to outer bands most often precedes a sudden change in storm (but not always). Nothing but warm waters ahead on this track.
Hurricane Charley August 13th. 145mph. 14 miles from my house on Sanibel Island, Florida USA.

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:25    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
HI Bussy, Sorry for the late reply, Tracy was category 4.  1974 was also when Male names where added to the lists.
Shane

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:32    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Tracy was officially rated at cat 3 although it was thought Tracy may have reached cat 4 just prior to crossing the coast at Darwin, on landfall the central eye pressure was about 950hpa, the highest wind gust was 217kph then the wind vane blew away..the eye on approach was moving left and right off its mean track over a distance of about 100klm an interesting phenomena
regards Clyve H.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:35    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
In the end, neither prediction has ended up being remarkably accurate. While Ingrid has continued moving westwards into NT waters(Blind Freddy could have told you that), it doesn't look like it will end up as far west as Willy.
Most current indications are that it will eventually make landfall along the NT coast somewhere and then slowly recurve back to the southeast. The big question is when will it make that landfall. The models vary from around the Cape Don region in the case of the BoM models(mesoLAPS, LAPS and TLAPS), to around Darwin(GFS) to as far west as the Kimberley(EC). GFS has handled the track the best of the the lot so far so if I was in Darwin now I'd be well into commencing preparations.
And as for Willy...a bit of a non-event really. It doesn't look like its going to come much closer to the WA coast now and although the jetstream will still capture some of the moisture as suggested before, this is more likely to result in just light rain across much of WA and southern Australia next week rather than any significant rainband.
Ah well...its been fascinating watching it all unfold anyway.
Matt

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:36    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi Clyve and all, Yes its unfortunate not to find out what the maximum gusts where, minimum pressure and rainfall ect. If this is a copycat situation with Ingrid, it will be well tracked and weather conditions "we hope" be monitored accurately.
Shane

From: "Michael Manning"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:46    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] INGRID
Sweet mercy on all in Ingrids path now!!!!
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 4 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 134.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
She is really winding up the clock now and means business!
Cheers, Michael

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 15:48    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi Michael, yes she is a mean cyclone for sure.
Furthermore, things have advanced greatly since the seventies. You know like Flares, Cordroid Pants,
The Mullet hairstyles ect.
Shane

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/12/2005 15:56    Subject: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi All.
I do not recall the BoM having such a high wind speed in an operational warning before - see warnings below!
Regards,   Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:09 pm CST Saturday 12 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
DARWIN and ELCHO ISLAND, including the COBOURG PENINSULA, and now including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to DALY RIVER MOUTH.
The CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND has been cancelled.
At 4pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 5 was located off the north
coast about 55 kilometres north of MILINGIMBI and 165 kilometres east of
GOULBURN ISLAND, moving west at 20 kilometres per hour, parallel to the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop along the north coast between
MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON in about 12 hours. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID should cross the COBOURG PENINSULA coast in 12 to 24
hours and may pass near GOULBURN or CROKER ISLANDS before moving into the VAN
DIEMEN GULF.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast
between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI, and will extend along the north coast
tonight to CROKER ISLAND by Sunday morning. GALES have eased between ELCHO
ISLAND and NHULUNBUY, however squally winds may be experienced.
GALES may extend west to the TIWI ISLANDS by Sunday evening, and southwest to
DARWIN by Sunday night and further west to DALY RIVER MOUTH by Monday
afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON, including GOULBURN ISLAND and CROKER ISLAND.
ABNORMALLY
HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the coast between ELCHO ISLAND and
MANINGRIDA.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 4 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 134.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between POINT STUART and NHULUNBUY, including the COBOURG PENINSULA.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: Neville Gibb  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 16:10    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] INGRID
As Ingrid had just hit the NE Qld coast...
On Thu, 10 Mar 2005, Matt wrote:
> Then of course there's the potential of Ingrid making its way right across
> to WA and following in Willy's footsteps...
And I thought you were joking...
Looks like you're fairly spot-on so far with Willy as well.
Btw, the new local NZ TV1 weather presenter this evening was about to say "Tropical Cy..." then changed his mind and referred to Ingrid as a "Tropical Storm that may bring some thunderstorms to Darwin".
A Cat. 5 TS maybe? Think I'll stick to the nett.
cheers
Neville

From: "Jane ONeill"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 16:45    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Evening all,
When we moved to Darwin in 1984, we lived in a 3rd (top) floor apartment in Fannie Bay (across from the best pizza shop in the Southern Hemisphere...then, anyway). I went into the Town Planning section to find out what rating the building was. Town Planner disappeared, came back 10 minutes later and said solemnly...."I'd meet you in Tennant Creek".......the building was 2 years old in 1984!!!!! Watching a house built in Bakewell (Palmerston) in 1997, we noted that the tying down of walls during construction was further apart than we had noted 10 years before - even though well inland, at that stage they were having to adhere to the same building standards...not sure how things stand now.
I'm happy sitting this one out in Melbourne.
Jane

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 16:53    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
At 07:45 PM 12/03/2005, you wrote:
>I'm happy sitting this one out in Melbourne.
Guess we've got our severe high pressure system to watch out for... ;-)
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 17:34    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Hi Jane, My Grandparents owned a house at Nightcliff, their house is 70 yrs old and withstood Tracy.
They moved in 1996. My Grandmother has photos of Tracy's damage and what it had don't to their suburb.
Shane.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 19:25    Subject: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and building standards.
Ingrid now a cat 5.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID with wind gusts
near
320 kilometres per hour is expected to move towards the coast near GOULBURN
ISLAND early Sunday morning, in the next 6 to 9 hours. The cyclone is
expected
to cross the COBOURG PENINSULA coast early Sunday morning south of CROKER
ISLAND
before moving into the VAN DIEMEN GULF during the day on Sunday.
Looks like Ingrid is going to hit NT a lot worse then QLD. 320km/h, now that is fast, it would make just about anything not tied down, a lethal weapon.
I am glad I am not up there at the moment.
Kane.

From: KHoarau  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 20:06    Subject: TC Ingrid in the Northern Territory
Hi all,
It looks like the Cape Wilberforce was in the south-west part of the eyewall yesterday around 1700Z-1900Z.
Jeff, Bruce or someone else, would you have winds and pressures data about stations in the north of Australia like Cape Wilberforce, Milingimbi or Maningrida ?
Thanks a lot
Karl

From: Matthew Saxby   To: TCDG
Date: 03/12/2005 20:42    Subject: Are my INGRID emails getting thru?
Dear All,
Two or three times in the last as many adys I've used the "send to a friend" option on news-media webpages to send you news on INGRID. I have no idea whether or not they've reached you. They would have come out under the email ids "burma_watch" and "polushka", the bit after the @ being the same as my current address. Can someone plse check, as I've a horrid suspicion these emails are just going off into hyperspace :(
BR,
Matthew

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 20:42    Subject: Re: Are my INGRID emails getting thru?
Matthew,
I got one from you on 9 March with some URL's of Ingrid information.
Another on the 10th discussing some historical intense Qld TCs.
These are all.
b/r    Gary

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 20:45    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Dear Carl (and all),
They had 320km/h with Thelma; Perth lowered it to 295 but kept the SLP the same.
BR,
Matthew
Carl Smith wrote:
> Hi All.
> I do not recall the BoM having such a high wind speed in an operational warning before - see warnings below!

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 20:47    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
I also recall 320 km/hr gusts being used a few years ago. Can't be sure about the cyclone, but Thelma seems a likely possibility.
Darwin's peak MSW for Thelma was 120 kts, just as with Ingrid.

From: KHoarau  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 20:54    Subject: TC Ingrid (3 images = 130 Ko)
Hi all,
I joined three Noaa 17 pictures at 0121Z today. The Noaa 17 satellite just passed at the Nadir of Ingrid : the eye temperature was as warm as +24.6C(WMG in Dvorak code) while Goes 9 gave only an Off White eye at te same time : below +9C, a difference at least of 15C !!! Goes 9 is located almost at the same longitude of Ingrid but at the latitude of the Equator !!! The angle was near 10° and Goes 9 got the bottom of the eyewall as the eye temperature !!!
As the eye of Ingrid had a size of 12km at the top, Goes 9 could not catch the right temperature. From the 0121Z Noaa 17 picture, the warm temperature at least of +9C(WMG) in the surface eye had a diameter of 10 km or 5nm !!! As the ring was CMG (-76C to - 80C) with tops at -88C, The satellite data DT was at 7.5 !!! But this does not mean that Ingrid was at 155 kt while this pattern was obvious only for a few hours !
But like Jeff I would like to have a recon in this small but very intense cyclone !!!
Karl

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/12/2005 21:12    Subject: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid, will she hit QLD again?
Saw some interesting models today that suggest Ingrid may hit Darwin, before doing an about face, and heading back towards QLD.
I know Cyclones tend to be highly erratic in Australia, but if these prove correct, it will be an interesting week. It seams she just cannot be killed.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/threeofnine/Ingrid.JPG
Images are from www.bom.gov.au  and www.weatherzone.com.au 
Kane.

From: "Michael P. Pitt"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 21:30    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Why does BoM do the Public Warnings with Gusts and not sustained wind speed like everybody else in the world does?
Michael

From: "Phil Smith"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 22:41    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi Michael,
The BoM figured out years ago that it was the gusts rather than the sustained winds that did most of the damage. It also helps having a higher number to try to convince Joe Blow to stay in shelter. ("Joe Blow" is Aussie for "John Doe")
Phil
<><

From: Roger Edson  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 21:31   Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Yes. Pretty amazing. Anyone recalling an almost complete reincarnation of a Cat 5 'hurricane'...we are not talking about a temporary break due to some transient shear, but a trip across a land mass and another body of water.
I wonder how populated those northern island are, as the MI showed a REAL tight 'red' eye while crossing them.
Roger

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/12/2005 21:36    Subject: Re: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi Karl,Gary and all,
if Iam not mistaken DARWIN warned TC THELMA (06S) back in Dec 1998 at 120kt with a mslp of 925hpa.
PERTH did not give TC GWENDA( 32S) in April 1999 more than 110kt in operational warning time but revised upwards their estimate to 125kt for the best track with 900hpa being the estimated strongest cyclone on BOM tables.
JTWC gave it 130kt.
Cheers
Patrick
NB: data below are from Gary monthly issues.
Storm Name: THELMA Cyclone Number: 06S Basin: AUS
Date      Time  Lat   Lon      Cent MSW   MSW Remarks
         (GMT)                Press 1-min 10-min
                              (mb) (kts)  (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
98 DEC 03 1800 10.0 S 135.0 E 1005    15
98 DEC 04 1800  9.0 S 134.0 E 1005    25
98 DEC 05 0600  9.3 S 132.0 E 1000    25   30 JTWC: 9.2 S, 130.5 E
98 DEC 05 1200  9.3 S 131.3 E  999    30
98 DEC 05 1800  8.8 S 131.6 E  997    25   30
98 DEC 06 0000  9.0 S 131.5 E  996    30
98 DEC 06 0600  8.9 S 131.0 E  993    45   45 JTWC: 9.6 S, 130.9 E
98 DEC 06 1200  8.9 S 130.8 E  990    45
98 DEC 06 1800  8.9 S 130.7 E  990    55   45
98 DEC 07 0000  9.1 S 131.1 E  985    50
98 DEC 07 0600 10.0 S 131.1 E  970    90   70
98 DEC 07 1200 10.3 S 130.9 E  955    90
98 DEC 07 1800 10.8 S 130.3 E  950   115   90
98 DEC 08 0000 10.9 S 130.0 E  950    90
98 DEC 08 0600 11.5 S 129.6 E  935   120  115
98 DEC 08 1200 11.6 S 129.2 E  925   120
98 DEC 08 1800 11.7 S 128.7 E  925   135  120
98 DEC 09 0000 11.8 S 128.4 E  935   110
98 DEC 09 0600 12.0 S 128.0 E  935   130  110
98 DEC 09 1200 12.4 S 127.4 E  935   110
98 DEC 09 1800 12.7 S 126.9 E  935   130  110
98 DEC 10 0000 13.1 S 126.5 E  925   120
98 DEC 10 0600 13.5 S 125.9 E  925   125  120
98 DEC 10 1200 13.8 S 125.6 E  925   120
98 DEC 10 1900 14.5 S 125.3 E  925   120  120
98 DEC 10 2200 14.5 S 125.3 E  925   120
98 DEC 11 0400 15.2 S 124.9 E  960    90   75 JTWC-06Z: 15.7S, 124.9E
98 DEC 11 1000 16.3 S 125.0 E  985    50
98 DEC 11 1600 16.8 S 124.6 E  995    40
98 DEC 11 2200 17.2 S 124.5 E  998
98 DEC 12 0500 17.7 S 124.5 E
98 DEC 12 0700 18.0 S 124.0 E  997    35
98 DEC 12 1800 18.6 S 123.9 E               40 JTWC Warning
98 DEC 13 0100 18.6 S 122.6 E  997
98 DEC 13 0400 18.5 S 122.4 E  997    35
98 DEC 13 1000 18.9 S 121.8 E  996    30
98 DEC 13 1600 19.0 S 121.4 E  995    35
98 DEC 13 2200 19.3 S 121.1 E  995
98 DEC 14 0400 19.4 S 120.3 E  995    35   30
98 DEC 14 1000 19.6 S 119.7 E  995
98 DEC 14 1600 20.0 S 119.4 E  995    35   30
98 DEC 15 0600 21.0 S 119.4 E               30 JTWC Warning

Storm Name: GWENDA Cyclone Number: 32S Basin: AUS
Date      Time   Lat    Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW Remarks
          (GMT)               Press 1-min 10-min
                              (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

99 APR 01 0600 10.0 S 135.0 E 1007         20 JTWC Trop. WX Outlook
99 APR 01 1800 10.0 S 132.0 E 1006         20 "
99 APR 02 1800  9.0 S 131.0 E 1006         20 "
99 APR 03 1800 11.0 S 129.0 E 1007         15 "
99 APR 03 2300 11.5 S 126.4 E 1000   30        Darwin Warning
99 APR 04 0600 11.4 S 124.2 E 1000   30
99 APR 04 1000 11.2 S 123.7 E  999   30        Perth Warning
99 APR 04 1600 11.2 S 123.0 E  999   30
99 APR 04 2200 11.7 S 121.8 E  997   30    30 JTWC-00Z: 12.2S, 120.8E
99 APR 05 0400 12.4 S 120.0 E  990   45 
99 APR 05 1000 12.8 S 119.0 E  985   45    50
99 APR 05 1600 13.3 S 118.3 E  985   50
99 APR 05 2200 14.3 S 117.4 E  975   65    60
99 APR 06 0400 15.3 S 117.0 E  930   90   100
99 APR 06 1000 16.0 S 116.6 E  915  115   110
99 APR 06 1600 16.4 S 116.6 E  915  125   110
99 APR 06 2200 17.0 S 116.6 E  915  130   110
99 APR 07 0400 18.0 S 117.3 E  930  110   100
99 APR 07 1000 19.2 S 118.0 E  940  100    90
99 APR 07 1600 20.2 S 118.9 E  980   50    55 JTWC-18Z: 20.7S, 119.6E
99 APR 07 2200 20.4 S 119.2 E  998   30        Inland

From: Carl Smith  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 00:07    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi Micheal.
>Why does BoM do the Public Warnings with Gusts and not sustained wind speed like everybody else in the world does?
>Michael
After cyclone Tracy wiped out most of Darwin in 1974, which I think still stands as Australia's most expensive natural disaster, the Australian Government was more open to the idea of providing funds for research into tropical cyclones and the best ways of getting cyclone information to the public, so the BoM was able to spend many years doing the necessary research, which is still going on to some extent, although BoM funding has been tight for many years now.
Their research showed that the much of the destruction happens as a result of wind gusts rather than the sustained force, although sustained winds over long periods will also cause damage.
When it comes to public perceptions, they found simple and clear is the best approach - warnings with only sustained values are often misunderstood so underwarning on the danger, warnings with both sustained and gust values cause unnecessary confusion to those without a scientific background, and 'Joe Public' really only wants to know how serious conditions may get.
So the outcome is a civilian warning system with a category scale based on maximum wind gusts that is clear and simple, easily conveyed to the public, and works in parallel with the marine warning system that adopts to 10-minute-av sustained international standard that you see in the shipping warnings.
For my two bobs worth, I consider the Australian Tropical Warning System to be the most effective in the world, with public understanding of the warnings being remakably high in cyclone prone areas.
Regards,
Carl.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/13/2005 00:45    Subject: Ingrid - Darwin radar link
Hi All.
Ingrid is now visible in the Darwin radar loop at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml
Regards,
Carl.

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 01:51    Subject: Re: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Well, I think I already made it clear how high I rate the BOM work ( first and foremost from PERTH and DARWIN since my first area of interest since childhood was the SIO where I lived) .
But I must be honest: true MAURTIUS and REUNION have not the same weight than AUSTRALIA.
But when one says this or that is the best one should also take into account "my" islands regularly battered by gusts over 200k/h and huge amounts of rainfalls.
They account for almost 2 000 000 people but very often no death is to be counted after batterings especially in Rodrigues for istance.
Maybe the system of warning in "my" islands is as good as the Australian's or else people living there are very well disciplined.
Patrick

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/13/2005 02:40    Subject: Ingrid
18:30UTC
Weak resolution eye now appearing on outside of 257km range Darwin radar. Ingrid ripped Gouldborn Island with her hard SW eyewall in your evening at category 5 with gusts to 200mph American. Pressure an impressive 904 millibars American or less. 904 was reading from 10 hours ago, could have intensified further before landfall. Satellite features last night of angry category 5 off Maningrida.
Ingrid presently striking north end of Murgenella Wildlife Sanctuary at category 5. Track basically west. Should track over Cobourg Peninsula and enter Van Diemen Gulf too far north to impact Darwin severely (unless it turns)...

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 03:15    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: McCluer Island , Hurricane winds
Here is what I found from the last report from Mc CLUER island ( 11.1s and 133.0e).
Below are the last DARWIN sea warning and public warning.
Current Conditions
Updated: 3:00 AM CST on March 13, 2005
Observed at Mccluer Island Aws, Northern Territory (History)
Elevation: 13 ft / 4 m
78 °F / 26 °C
Unknown Precipitation
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 78 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 83 mph / 133 km/h from the WNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 28.85 in / 977 hPa (Falling)

IDD20130
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:2:24:12S132E999:11:00
PANPAN
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1930 UTC 12 MARCH 2005
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone INGRID estimated within 15 nautical miles of
11.2 S 132.8 E moving WEST at 10 knots. Central pressure 930 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Sustained winds to 110 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles with very high seas and heavy
swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles with very rough to high seas and
heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
0600 UTC 13 Mar: 11.4 S 131.5 E 930hPa. Winds to 105 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 13 Mar: 11.8 S 130.3 E 935hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 55
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Sunday 13 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
DARWIN and MANINGRIDA, including the COBOURG PENINSULA, DARWIN and the TIWI
ISLANDS.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to DALY RIVER MOUTH.
At 1am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 5 was located off the north
coast about 25 kilometres north northwest of GOULBURN ISLAND and 80 kilometres
east southeast of CROKER ISLAND, moving west at 20 kilometres per hour,
currently parallel to the coast.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID with wind gusts near
320 kilometres per hour is currently affecting GOULBURN ISLAND. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving west and cross the COBOURG PENINSULA coast early
this morning south of CROKER ISLAND before moving into the VAN DIEMEN GULF
during today.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are being experienced on
the coast near GOULBURN ISLAND and will extend to CROKER ISLAND early this
morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast
between MANINGRIDA and CROKER ISLAND, and will extend west to the TIWI ISLANDS
by this afternoon or evening and southwest to DARWIN by tonight, and further
south to DALY RIVER MOUTH by Monday afternoon.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON, including GOULBURN ISLAND and CROKER ISLAND.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 1 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 133.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 60 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between DARWIN and MANINGRIDA, including the COBOURG PENINSULA and TIWI ISLANDS.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 am CST.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: KHoarau  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 03:30    Subject: Re : Re: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi Patrick and all,
Patrick,
I do agree : Gwenda had an intensity of 140 kt over 1 mn but as it was a rather small TC I think that the SLP was higher than 900 mb !!
I have a picture at 1128Z on 6 April showing an eye of -4C with a CDG ring !
Thelma had an eye at -13C in a CDG ring(colder than -81C) at 0923Z on 8 Dec 1998.
But I think that the deepest TC in western Australia was TC Orsor on 22 April 1989 when a Gazolin plateform recorded a SLP of 905.7 mb as the satellite presentation indicated a weakening ! At its top Orson had probably a SLP of 890-895 hPa ! See the satellite picture I attached !
The eye was at +18C in a White ring while the CMG ring was too small !
Karl

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 03:51    Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Joe Blow is an American, too!!! I know bunches of them. :)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith"  To: tcdg
Sent: Saturday, March 12, 2005 8:41 AM   Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
> Hi Michael,
> The BoM figured out years ago that it was the gusts rather than the sustained winds that did most of the damage. It also helps having a higher number to try to convince Joe Blow to stay in shelter. ("Joe Blow" is Aussie for "John Doe")
> Phil
> <><

From: "Kelly D Lash B.A.,Pharm.D.,M.P.S.,R.Ph."  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/13/2005 05:29    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Flooding N.Q
thanks , rains backed down overnight along with pressure 1011 ocean looks pissed off , clouds still thick. keep me posted if we get a third player

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 06:06    Subject: Re: Re : Re: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Hi Karl,
I do agree with you. I was just referring to BOM data but I also think TC ORSON was probably even stronger.
ORSON got 140kt from JTWC and GWENDA 130kt.
Cheers
Patrick

From: "Bruce Harper"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 07:21    Subject: RE: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
Roger,
Luckily these areas are very, very sparsely populated !
Best Regards,
Bruce
> -----Original Message-----
> From:  Roger Edson    Sent: Saturday, 12 March 2005 11:32 PM
> To: tcdg      Subject: Re: Ingrid a remarkable 320 km/hr!
> Yes. Pretty amazing. Anyone recalling an almost complete reincarnation of a Cat 5 'hurricane'...we are not talking about a temporary break due to some transient shear, but a trip across a land mass and another body of water.
> I wonder how populated those northern island are, as the MI showed a REAL tight 'red' eye while crossing them.
> Roger

From: Roger Edson  To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/13/2005 09:18    Subject: Radar loop of Ingrid and NWP TCFA
The longer range radar LOOP from Darwin is great!
You can really appreciate the 'size' problem of forecasting the strongest portion of the cyclone in that tiny eye!
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR633.shtml
Bottom line: we really (hardly ever)never get obs from the strongest portion of the TC...at over (for sure in this case) 1mb per 1 km, you can appreciate how far away you really have to be to see the 'real' winds (how many km away from the eyewall was those obs from McCluer Is?).
BTW, now we have a TCFA for the area south of us...looks like it might rain tomorrow!
Roger
Roger Edson
Tropical Meteorologist

From: Carl Smith   To: TCDG:
Date: 03/13/2005 10:34    Subject: Latest Obs from Cape Don as Ingrid passes very near
Hi All.
Latest obs from Cape Don:
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Station   Lat/Long Day/hour Vis Cld Wind  Temp RH   Bar Rain    Weather Tx/Tn |
| name       deg S/E   -    -   km  -  knot  degC  %   hPa mm hr         -  degC |
Cape Don A 1132 13177 13 0100  --  -  S/057   26 -- 975.7 0.0/--    Rain  -- --
Regards,
Carl.

From: Carl Smith  To: tcdg
Date: 03/13/2005 13:14    Subject: Re: Latest Obs from Cape Don as Ingrid passes very near
Hi All.
Missed the one in between as I was offline...
Cape Don A 1132 13177 13 0300  --  - NNE/033    27 -- 965.9 0.0/--   Rain  -- --
Carl.

From: Matthew Saxby  To: TCDG
Date: 03/13/2005 15:49    Subject: Another from McCluer Island
Mccluer Is 1105 13298 12 1730  --  - WNW/072   26 99 976.8 102/18   Rain  -- --
The wind's in kts...and it looks as if it's been put off the air, as that ob is > 12 hours old (12/1730 UTC). Ouch!
Ingrid has weakened considerably and is now 950hPa with max gusts to 235km/h.
That equates to a 105kt 1-min sustained wind using a 0.88 conversion factor.
MS

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/13/2005 17:37    Subject: [austpacwx] Cyclone Ingrid
Hi All, have been listening to reports of Ingrid direct from TOP FM.
The link is here: http://realserver.ntu.edu:8080/ramgen/encoder/livetopfm.rm
You need Real Player and speakers offcourse to tune in.
Good luck to all up there tonight near Ingrid.
Cheers Shane.

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 02:07    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: BATHURST island
The eye of the cyclone is approaching BATHURST island ( 11.8s and 130.0e) and conditions are deteriorating there.
Below is the last report from the island and the latest public and sea warnings from DARWIN and JTWC.
Cheers/Patrick
Current Conditions
Updated: 3:00 AM CST on March 14, 2005
Observed at Bathurst Island Aws Cape Fourcroy, Northern Territory (History)
Elevation: 46 ft / 14 m
78 °F / 26 °C
Unknown Precipitation
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 78 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 34 mph / 56 km/h from the South
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.27 in / 991 hPa (Falling)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 63
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Monday 14 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between DALY
RIVER MOUTH and POINT STUART, including the TIWI ISLANDS and DARWIN.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
At 1am CST [11:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, CATEGORY 3, was
located about 20 kilometres west of SNAKE BAY and 120 kilometres north northwest
of DARWIN, moving west at 10 kilometres per hour.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with gusts to 215
kilometres per hour, is currently crossing the western part of MELVILLE ISLAND,
and is expected to continue moving west across the remainder of the TIWI ISLANDS
this morning.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the TIWI
ISLANDS and in the western VAN DIEMEN GULF. GALES will extend southwest to
DARWIN early this morning before easing during the day on Monday. At this stage,
it is expected that only the southern edge of INGRID will affect DARWIN.
GALES may extend further southwest to DALY RIVER MOUTH on Monday, and then
further southwest to KALUMBURU by Tuesday evening, if the cyclone takes a
southwest track into the Timor Sea.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING on the coasts of the TIWI
ISLANDS.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northwest TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 215 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 3
. Central pressure......... 955 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is
currently crossing MELVILLE ISLAND and is expected to continue moving west
across the TIWI ISLANDS this morning.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 am CST [3:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
IDD20130
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:2:24:12S130E999:11:00
PANPAN
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1330 UTC 13 MARCH 2005
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone INGRID estimated within 15 nautical miles of
11.4 S 130.8 E moving WEST at 5 knots. Central pressure 955 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Sustained winds to 80 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 10 nautical miles with very rough to high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.
0000 UTC 14 Mar: 11.5 S 129.9 E 955hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.
1200 UTC 14 Mar: 12.2 S 129.2 E 955hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (INGRID) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 11.4S6 131.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 131.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 11.6S8 130.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.0S3 129.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 12.6S9 128.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.2S6 127.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 130.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (INGRID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD TOWARDS CAPE TALBOT AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CHANGES FROM A HIGH TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING HIGH TO THE
EAST ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WILLY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/14/2005 02:30    Subject: Ingrid Stalling?
Surprised waking up here in America that Ingrid is still over Melville Island.
Melville must have taken prolonged winds all night. Center weakened because of land contact, but feedbands are still over water on both sides.
Cyclone slowed so much that sudden turn not out of the question. Would not relax in Darwin until clear track is established. Slow down and stall
often precedes unexpected turn.
If it continues west it will emerge with good structure over Timor Sea.
Amazing cyclone...

From: Anthony Cornelius  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 05:05    Subject: Re: TC 22P/INGRID: BATHURST island
It will be interesting to see how Ingrid fairs once it passes over the Tiwi Islands. Being such a small system, chances are it will intesnify once again to the west of Darwin and to the north of Western Australia where SSTs around ~30C or so. Certainly well within the realms of possibility of becoming a Cat 5 *yet again* - although the second land crossing(s) weren't as significant as the first, it would still be quite a feat to weaken going over land twice and both times to reintenisfy back to a Cat 5!
Also - does anyone know how many TCs have hit the three northern states of Australia before? It's gone over Queensland and the islands of the Northern Territory - some of the progs are suggesting landfall in northern Western Australia, not sure how many systems have done this before? I remember TC Steve a while back certainly had a good wander around all three forecasting areas, but can't remember if it had a direct hit on all 3 states?
--
Anthony Cornelius
President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
[phone number snipped]
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 05:31    Subject: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi All, Ingrid is almost in the exact location to where Tracy was in 1974.
Listening to local radio online, fears now are, will Ingrid turn back towards Darwin once she rounds Bathurst Island?
Cheers Shane.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 05:57    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Doesn't look like it I have to say...obviously we can't rule anything out as one thing about Ingrid is she has liked to do what none of the models were predicting through her whole lifecycle. But it would have to have slowed down quite considerably and at least started to make more of a southward run if it was going to do something similar. At this stage, I'd still be going with the continued southwestward movement towards the Kimberley over the next 24-48 hours. Now that it is back out over water again, it should start to reintensify. In fact, just in the last hour, the eye already appears to have enlarged on the radar. Cape Fourcroy bottomed out at 981hPa as it just skirted the eyewall...gusts to 120 km/hr so fairly impressive.
Matt

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 06:05    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi Matt...The rather 'sudden' appearance of a 'radar' eye appears well formed and Ingrid may have already re-intensified to cat 4 in the last 2 hours or so..Ingrid may reach cat 5 again over the next 6 hours..interesting to see the eye has become larger then most of the previous two days..SST's are about 30c..regards Clyve H.

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 06:44    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Well they have left the intensity unchanged in the latest warning, which is a bit surprising IMO as it definitely appears to have intensified in the last couple of hours as you said Clyve. Interestingly, in the last hour or so, it does not appear to have moved at all...still very slowly westwards but I certainly can't see the 10km they've got in the warning at present.
Definitely interesting times ahead...
Matt

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 06:48    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: ABC report
here you will find a report from ABC .
Scroll down and you will find two links for two videos.
Patrick
http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200503/1322440.htm?nt

From: "G8.106"   To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 07:08    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi Matt and all, I always get a bit concerned when a TC slows down!..The overall look of the TC this morning is more symmetrical, the upper divergence field is now well defined unlike over the past two days when the upper divergence has been good but slightly irregular possibly due to close proximity to the north Australian coast and an imbalance in moisture supply.
On some occasions a slowing TC core may indicate a re-curvature tendency although with INGRID the rebuilding process may have temporarily stalled the central region (expansion) regards Clyve H

From: "Keith Barnett"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/14/2005 07:25    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
I wonder is it going to be one of those cyclones that 'loop the loop' over a fairly short radius...the smaller the diameter, the more likely it could change course in a shorter distance and (hopefully not) head for Darwin?

From: Matthew Saxby  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 09:08    Subject: Re: TC 22P/INGRID: BATHURST island
Dear Anthony,
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Certainly well within the realms of possibility of becoming a Cat 5 *yet again* - although the second land crossing(s) weren't as significant as the first, it would still be quite  a feat to weaken going over land twice and both times to reintenisfy back to a Cat 5!
I consider this doubtful myself, though some reintensification is forecast in the latest marine warning. There's a fair amount of wind-shear off northern Australia at present (or there was last night), and this will probably prevent it regaining Cat-5. But to have been Cat-5 twice is quite a feat in its own right, and Ingrid is almost certainly the first Australian TC to have done so.
> Also - does anyone know how many TCs have hit the three northern states of Australia before?
Only one -- Steve. It did hit all three states, and directly affected SA, Vic and Tas as well, becoming the first TC to almost completely circumnavigate the continent. It is also the only TC to have required the issuance of public advisories in all three Australian regions.
BR,
Matthew S.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/14/2005 10:27    Subject: Ingrid stationary - Darwin not out of the woods yet!
Hi All.
The Darwin radar loop at http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml has shown Ingrid  as nearly stationary for the last hour - Darwin is still under threat.
Regards,
Carl.

From: Carl Smith  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 15:53   Subject: Re: Ingrid stationary - Darwin not out of the woods yet!
Hi All.
Ingrid has resumed moving, now SW, so Darwin looks like it has been spared.
Carl.

From: "Simon Clarke"  To: tcdg
Date: 03/14/2005 15:57    Subject: RE: TC 22P/INGRID: BATHURST island
Anthony
Apart from Cyclone Steve, that has already mentioned ... the only other very big wanderer from Ocean to Ocean in recent years was Katrina/Victor-Cindy (1998)... which in reality was a single system (despite three names). In this case it did not actually hit land in Australia as a cyclone and skipped over the Northern Territory only as a depression.
Although not continuous as a full blown cyclone.... I think this system would have to rank as one of the longest in terms of life... surviving from the 1 January 1998 to 18 February 1998.
Interestingly - the big South Pacific Cyclones Ron and Susan were also in this season at the same time .... does this sound familiar ???
However, Ingrid is remarkable as it has not lost TC status in its wanderings so far !
Cheers
Simon

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/15/2005 01:19    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: Accounts from Melville island
Darwin spared Ingrid's fury
Monday, 14 March 2005. 22:58 (AEDT)Monday, 14 March 2005. 21:58 (ACST)Monday, 14 March 2005. 21:58 (AEST)Monday, 14 March 2005. 22:58 (ACDT)Monday, 14 March 2005. 19:58 (AWST)
One island community says it will take years to recover from Ingrid.ABC TV
Darwin residents are breathing a sigh of relief after the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is not headed in their direction.
However, the cyclone has caused extensive damage to island communities off northern Australia and is heading towards the north Kimberley coast of Western Australia.
The bureau has cancelled a cyclone warning for Darwin and Melville Island as Ingrid moves south-west over the Timor Sea.
It says a cyclone warning is now current for Bathurst Island and for coastal and inland communities between Port Keats and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia.
The category three cyclone is still recording wind speeds of 215 kilometres an hour near its core and tropical storm forecaster Graeme King says it could intensify over the Timor Sea as it heads towards the north Kimberley coast.
Mr King says gale force winds could hit the Kimberley late tomorrow.
"Anything along the north Kimberley coast is under watch now and as it gets closer in the coming days we'll have to see where it goes," Mr King said.
Terrifying
Residents of Milikapiti on the Tiwi Islands have told of hearing clattering objects and wind howling in all directions as they took shelter from the cyclone.
The northern-most community on Melville Island bore the brunt of the cyclone as it crossed over the islands north of Darwin last night.
Irene Hall Ah Kit spent the night in the Milikapiti Recreation Centre with about 100 others.
She says there were sounds of logs and metal hitting the side of the hall and it was a terrifying ordeal.
"We had about 50 kids in the centre last night and they were all pretty good but they were frightened, listening to the noise - some of them never heard it before," she said.
"Plus the rain came in and it was very scary for the old people."
While almost none of the trees in town survived, there was little damage to buildings.
Milikapiti's housing manager, Dennis Dallwood, says he cannot understand how that could be, given the size of the objects he saw flying through the air.
"A lot of big sections of trees went past us. It had no trouble in picking them up," he said. "It was just amazing some of the size of stuff that went past us."
No running water
The Minjilang Community Council on Croker Island says it could take years to recover from the devastation of Ingrid, which hit there early yesterday morning with winds recorded at up to 320 kilometres an hour.
The cyclone has left the 200 residents of Croker, about 200 kilometres north-east of Darwin, with no running water and only enough food for two days.
Ingrid's devastating path across the island can be seen from the air, with trees stripped bare for kilometres and power lines down.
The Jarbu fishing lodge is obliterated and most buildings are extensively damaged, including the school and teachers' accommodation.
Survivors say they cannot believe no-one was killed or injured.
NT Police Commissioner Paul White says emergency services have arrived at Croker Island with supplies and about 100 kilograms of blankets.
The council's essential services officer, Wayne Barnes, says more outside help is desperately needed.
"We haven't got the resources, that's the thing - we've got very few chainsaws and equipment," he said. "That's why we're hoping we can get a handout, to give us a hand to do these things."
Praise and criticism
Commissioner White says there have been no reports of injuries from Cyclone Ingrid because because people took heed of warnings and acted responsibly.
"So many people have made such an effort in the last few days in terms of planning and preparation and I think it's to their credit," he said.
Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin says the Government's advice is that it does not need to declare a state of emergency for communities worst affected by Cyclone Ingrid.
She plans to visit those communities tomorrow, including Minjilang on Croker Island.
"Category five Ingrid was a very large cyclone, there has been a lot of property damage on the islands and certainly we're very grateful that there's been no injuries," she said.
"Now that the warning from the cyclone is over we can get planes out to these communities and we will be assessing what the damage has been and how quickly we can repair that.
"We'll have to do the assessments, we'll have to look at what the costs of that are, but what we want from Government's point of view is to have those communities functioning as quickly as possible."
The Chief Minister has defended her decision not to make a public comment about the cyclone before this evening, saying she wanted to comment on the recovery phase.
Opposition Leader Denis Burke had criticised Ms Martin's silence, saying she had failed to show leadership.
"Leadership is demonstrated by a clear spokesperson who speaks on behalf of all of the government services," Mr Burke said. "That essentially has been missing."

Related Images

Cyclone Ingrid brought down trees at Nguiu on Bathurst Island.ABC

Darwin is to be spared the full brunt of Cyclone Ingrid.ABC

Cyclone Ingrid is expected to move away from Darwin. (Satellite image taken at 3:00pm ACST on March 14)Bureau of Meteorology

Related Video
Ingrid heads for WA
Cyclone Ingrid is heading towards Western Australia after cutting a devastating path through the small islands off the Northern Territory.
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After a nervous wait Darwin was spared the destructive core of cyclone Ingrid, but the storm is now moving towards Western Australia's Kimberley coast.
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From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 03:36    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Ingrid is now officially a Cat 4, but has taken another turn overnight, and is now heading West.
Kane.

From: Appleweb To: Smithp
Date: 03/15/2005 04:28    Subject: Inching Ingrid
Looking at storm movement I would suggest Ingrid is in a weak steering environment drifting poleward in the general SW flow. Because of slow movement perhaps only mild intensification as storm is inhibited by overland air being swept into SE quadrant (perhaps). Should have eye at this intensity. Strange "double-lobe" structure due to Timor Sea moisture being superior to overland air.
If I were to guess I would say continued drift SW then S with landfall near Forrest River after traversing Bonaparte Gulf. Cambridge Gulf could surge if Ingrid rams directly into river mouth. Landfall from Forrest River to Port Keats. That said anything still possible when cyclone is at 7kph forward movement...

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/15/2005 04:52    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: Impressive TRMM data
Hi Roger and all,
I have not seen the last intensity estimate from last JTWC warning but the TRMM at 1454Z was very impressive with the 85H channel very telling indeed.
Do you agree?
Patrick
By the way the 1637Z TRMM overpass depicts very well the centre of TC 02W.

From: Anthony Cornelius  To: tcdg
Date: 03/15/2005 04:59    Subject: Re: TC 22P/INGRID: BATHURST island
Hi Matthew,
The main jetstream appears to be moving to the SE of the system across into Queensland - so we still might see some solid intensification.
Overnight, Ingrid was upgraded back to Cat 4 with 260km/h gusts...so not too far off a Cat 5 again! Will be interesting to see the developments today. The Kimberley could well be in the firing line with many of the progs suggesting a southwards movement. Fortunately - it's another very sparsely populated area (although most of Australia is! lol)
AC
[quoted messages snipped]
Anthony Cornelius
President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
[Telephone number snipped]
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

From: "Chas Osborn"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 06:14    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hello Kane
In the last couple of hours it looks to be heading S toward Wyndham or just to the west over Oombulgurrie.
There are only a couple of fishing camps between Oombulgurrie and Kalumburu so that is where I would like to see it hit if it does cross the coast in that area.
Chas
Walwa NE Victoria
formerly Oombulgurrie and Kalumburu
[Editor's note: some spelling correction]

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/15/2005 06:19    Subject: TC 22P/INGRID: last landfall over the area
Last TC ( with Hurricane/Typhoon winds at landfall) for the area between 125/130°E was TC 06S/THELMA back in Dec 1998. I remember vividly how much I got excited with that one ...
The area where TC 22P/INGRID may make landfall is often grazed by the tracks but landfalls(Hurricanes) are relatively rare compared to what is observed between 115/122°E ( often referred as the "Cyclone Alley").
TC 06S/THELMA
SH, 06, 1998120400, , BEST, 0,  88S, 1339E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120406, , BEST, 0,  91S, 1335E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120412, , BEST, 0,  92S, 1329E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120418, , BEST, 0,  92S, 1325E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120500, , BEST, 0,  93S, 1321E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120506, , BEST, 0,  94S, 1317E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120512, , BEST, 0,  94S, 1316E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120518, , BEST, 0,  94S, 1315E,  25, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120600, , BEST, 0,  95S, 1314E,  30, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120606, , BEST, 0,  96S, 1313E,  45, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120612, , BEST, 0,  96S, 1313E,  45, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120618, , BEST, 0,  97S, 1312E,  55, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120700, , BEST, 0,  98S, 1311E,  60, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120706, , BEST, 0, 100S, 1310E,  90, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120712, , BEST, 0, 104S, 1308E, 100, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120718, , BEST, 0, 108S, 1305E, 115, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120800, , BEST, 0, 112S, 1300E, 125, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120806, , BEST, 0, 115S, 1296E, 120, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120812, , BEST, 0, 116S, 1292E, 135, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120818, , BEST, 0, 117S, 1288E, 135, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120900, , BEST, 0, 119S, 1284E, 130, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120906, , BEST, 0, 123S, 1279E, 130, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120912, , BEST, 0, 125S, 1273E, 130, 0,
SH, 06, 1998120918, , BEST, 0, 129S, 1268E, 130, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121000, , BEST, 0, 131S, 1265E, 130, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121006, , BEST, 0, 134S, 1261E, 125, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121012, , BEST, 0, 139S, 1257E, 125, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121018, , BEST, 0, 145S, 1253E, 120, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121100, , BEST, 0, 152S, 1251E, 115, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121106, , BEST, 0, 158S, 1250E,  90, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121112, , BEST, 0, 164S, 1249E,  65, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121118, , BEST, 0, 170S, 1249E,  45, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121200, , BEST, 0, 175S, 1248E,  40, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121206, , BEST, 0, 178S, 1244E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121212, , BEST, 0, 181S, 1242E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121218, , BEST, 0, 184S, 1240E,  40, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121300, , BEST, 0, 187S, 1233E,  40, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121306, , BEST, 0, 188S, 1226E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121312, , BEST, 0, 190S, 1219E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121318, , BEST, 0, 193S, 1214E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121400, , BEST, 0, 195S, 1210E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121406, , BEST, 0, 197S, 1206E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121412, , BEST, 0, 199S, 1199E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121418, , BEST, 0, 201S, 1197E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121500, , BEST, 0, 203S, 1196E,  35, 0,
SH, 06, 1998121506, , BEST, 0, 210S, 1194E,  30, 0,

From: "Chas Osborn"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 07:14    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hello All
10 am edt Ingrid now on a SW track.
Troughton Island!!! There are also Pearl farms in the that area.
Chas

From: "Matt Pearce"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 07:18    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Some solid outer rainbands heading for Darwin now as well. Should be plenty of rain across the northwest tropics over the next few days as Ingrid slowly makes its way inland then wanders around the Kimberley/western NT for the rest of the week. Hopefully some of that moisture will get dragged southeastwards into the developing upper trough over southeast Australia.
Matt

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/15/2005 09:27    Subject: Ingrid - Wyndham radar link
Hi All.
The eye of Ingid is just outside the top of the image on the Wyndam radar loop at: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR072.loop.shtml
The rain bands around the core are hitting the coast - over coming  hours the eye is likely to move fully into view as Ingrid either sideswipes the coast or makes landfall.
Regards,
Carl.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/15/2005 10:40    Subject: Ingrid Cat 5 for the 3rd time!
Hi All.
Ingrid is Cat 5 for the 3rd time as it approaches the N Kimberly coast of WA - see latest civilian and marine warnings below.
Regards,
Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 74
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Tuesday 15 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between PORT
KEATS in the Northern Territory and MITCHELL PLATEAU in Western Australia,
including WYNDHAM.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KURI BAY in Western Australia.
At 10am CST [8:30 am WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, CATEGORY 5, was
located in the Timor Sea, about 225 kilometres northeast of KALUMBURU and 300
kilometres north of WYNDHAM in Western Australia, moving south southwest at 15
kilometres per hour.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour, is expected on the coast between MITCHELL PLATEAU and
WYNDHAM tonight.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
on the coast
between MITCHELL PLATEAU and WYNDHAM during the afternoon. GALES may extend
further east to PORT KEATS tonight if INGRID takes a more southerly
track. Gales
may extend further southwest to KURI BAY on Wednesday if INGRID takes a more
westerly track.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MITCHELL PLATEAU and WYNDHAM tonight.
HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the north and east KIMBERLEY and southwest TOP END.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 10:00am CST [8:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 128.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 935 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with
gusts to 320 kilometres per hour, is expected on the coast between MITCHELL
PLATEAU and WYNDHAM tonight.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 2 pm CST [12:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210.
MEDIA: The following message is only for broadcast for areas in Western
Australia.
The WA State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: on the coast between the NT Border and Mitchell Plateau, including
Kalumburu, Oombulgurri, Wyndham, Troughton Island and Mitchell Plateau.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

WTAU03 ADRM 150128
IDD20130
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NORTHERN TERRITORY REGION
DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE
40:2:2:24:12S128E999:11:00
PANPAN
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
AT 0130 UTC 15 MARCH 2005
PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID ESTIMATED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF
12.8 S 128.0 E MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HPA.
AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE INCREASING TO 125 KNOTS WITHIN 6-12
HOURS.
WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES WITH VERY HIGH SEAS AND HEAVY
SWELL.
WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES EXTENDING TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.
1200 UTC 15 MAR: 13.6 S 127.0 E 925HPA. WINDS TO 125 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
0000 UTC 16 MAR: 14.4 S 126.8 E 925HPA. WINDS TO 125 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
REMARKS
SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS.
DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 12:50    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi all just checked a navy sat pic (visible) the central eye and surrounding core looks very intense with some good radial ribbing through the eye wall top...looks definitely cat 5 ish central pressure may be 920hpa or less(unofficial) regards Clyve H

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/15/2005 15:04    Subject: No Turn
Well, obviously no turn. Faraway Bay is going to take a strong cyclone.
Hope they are all clear there. Ingrid has grown into a powerful looking cyclone with a huge drawing area seen on satellite. Glad to have tracked this one even if so poorly...

From: "Max"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 15:06    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] S.T.C Ingrid and buildng standards.
Tracy was OFFICIALLY a Cat 4, although its believed she explosively deepened just as she was making landfall.
Unfortunately she had already destroyed all of the monitoring equipment before official readings could be taken. The pressure lowest pressure recorded at Darwin Airport near the eye was 942 hpa.
Max

From: "matt warburton"  To: smithp
Date: 03/15/2005 15:09    Subject: To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group TC Ingrid.....
To: Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group [TCDG]
From: Matt Warbo
How good is Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.
She starts off the east coast of North Queensland heading southeast, not causing any trouble....then she does a U-ey, scares the sh*t out of Cairns and Cooktown before slamming into the coast at Lockhart river.
KABOOOOMMMMMM!!! Take that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Everyone thought that was it.
But no.
She crosses the great divide and makes it to the Gulf of Carpentaria (just), where, after being downgraded from a TC5 to a TC1 by those bespeckled know-it-alls in Canberra, she pulls herself off the canvas and begins to fire up again. There's more fight left in this baby.
Before you know it - Ingrids back.
She's a TC 3 and heading across the gulf, straight for Arnhem land. Well, this might scare a few eurotrash backpackers but not the latte luv-vies in Darwin. "Nah - she'll peter out before Darwin" they said.
But Ingrid is a go-er. She likes to have a laugh.
She ducks north and skims across the top end. She's now in top form blowing at Force 5 - she's on fire!
Darwin absolutely sh*ts itself and everyone goes nuts. Supermarkets get raided for canned corn, warehouses sell out of wooden boards, good citizens fire up the emergency beer fridge.
AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But what a tease.
Ingrid just shimmies past in all her glory, watching the whole town tremble.
Force 5 and loving it. She could of had 'em but she chose not to. What class - what style.
Nobody laughs at Ingrid. Nobody.
Out to sea now, everyone breathes a sigh of relief.
But wait - what's this....no it can't be......it couldn't.....
What's that off the NW coast of WA? why its TC Willy!!
Ingrid's in love! Willy's in trouble (down from TC3 to TC1) and Ingrid wants one last huzzar before she exits stage left.
Its the perfect storm - two cyclones, locked together in an orgasmic raging, the likes of which girly men like Clooney could only dream of. It would be a fitting end for the perfect lady.....
I love TC Ingrid.

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: tcdg
Date: 03/15/2005 15:41    Subject: TC 02W/ROKE
Last AQUA1 in the 37 comp (0413Z) located the centre of intensifying TC 02W with pinpoint accuracy.
Patrick

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 16:54    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Looking at the RADAR for Wyndham, the eye of Ingrid is currently about to hit the coast just east of Faraway Bay, considering she is now officially a cat 5, it will be a nasty evening for that area.
I wonder if she will now go inland, and finally die.
Kane.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 16:58    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Correction, the latest RADAR image makes it look like Faraway Bay will cop the eye directly. Glad I am not there ATM.
Kane.

From: "Gavin O'Brien"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 17:02    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi Kane and all,
The BOM and JWTC both seem to model Ingrid as moving South and then Southeast as she recurves around the upper level ridge so it looks like she has finally started to die as it now seems unlikely she will move west to the Indian Ocean. Still as a Cat 5 for so much of her track, she was a very rare type of storm indeed.The Sat Pix seem to confirm this path
Gavin
Southside Weather Watch
Canberra

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 17:46    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi All, Looks like a direct hit on Kalumburu. This is a recorded weather station. Will it measure the highest wind gusts ever recorded for the Australian mainland? Will keep an eye on it tonight anyway to see what eventuates. Currently at 16.57 CST the Barometric Pressure has dropped to 998.6 hPA.
Cheers Shane.

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 19:04    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Imminent Manual Weather Stations Closure 15/3/05
Hi all..I am sincerely sad in respect to this move, there is nothing better than the visual wisdom of a trained observer in respect to meteorology regards Clyve Herbert. and what a night for this news with one of the most intense cyclones to make landfall on our coast....
----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Ian"  To: austpacwx
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2005 9:38 PM   Subject: [austpacwx] Imminent Manual Weather Stations Closure 15/3/05
> Hi Guys :)
> As from 23.59 hours 15/3/05, 165 manual weather stations are to be closed downthroughout Australia and replaced by Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) in their stead. The reason given is that BoM will save millions of $$ doing so. Not to be pesimistic, I can see a disaster in the making.An AWS cannot "see" such phenominum as fog. drizzle and other meteorological phenomina as we, using the ol' mark 1 eyeball  can; nor can they(AWS) see let alone describe the sky and other met.  features as we can. In other words AWS are all instrumental without visual imput supplied. There will be a definate loss of data which is only supplied by human visual observations- namely us.
> What happens if an AWS is wiped outin such as, like the AWS at Darwin and remote areas by the active TC Ingrid? When and how long will it take to service an AWS when it breaks down which they frequently do?
> One recorded incident atBathurst N.S.W recently took 4 months to repair and only recorded 40mm rainfall whereas in actual fact close on 300 mm rain fell in that area,- and thats not far from Sydney - What's  it going to be like in remote areas such as in the Outback; where AWS are placed if it took 4 months to fix in close by Bathurst? Also where are the technicians going to come from to effect said repairs?- none are at present being trained up to do this work, and older technicians are being"downsized" by BoM.
> It's more imperperative for _ALL of us to be really up to date with our obsevations now especially with MANUAL observations because BoM has gone down the track of "technology" at the expense and experience of seasoned observers such as ourselves.
> I have known for some time that BoM was phasing out the A8 Observation book, and I was told that all weather was going to be recorded "electronically" and that personel at Regional Offices were being slowly retrenched,( and that has already started), however I was unaware that said personel were being replaced by AWS's.
> It seems very odd to me that throughout the world, manual met. observers are on the increase and yet Australia is (foresightedly) eliminating manual observers in the name of "progress" ie cost cutting.
> If there is a disaster, eg. bushfire, aircraft crash, and so forth, due to the lack of meteorological observers, the the Australian Federal Government will be in a huge financial and political strife for their cut backs which will cost the Fed Goverment more millions of $$ in litigation by a huge host of assorted parties, and Court cases will go on for decades.
> As from 00.01 16/3/05 we will have to be more diligant with our record keeping and observing - you never know when it may be needed for a litigation case.
> Richard - Findon Sth. Australia
> P.S This was also reported in the ABC 7.30 Report 15/3/05

From: "Clyve Herbert"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 19:07    Subject: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Hi all..Does anybody now whets on Troughton island WA....Will be interesting to see if the eye of Ingrid shows deflection on impacting the coast or at least distortion....Tracy's eye became oval just prior to crossing the coast at Darwin with the southeast eye wall almost stalling then the appearance of the northwest eye wall pushing closer to the coast and crowding the southeast wall...regards Clyve H.

From: "Chas Osborn"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 19:49    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Hello Clive
I don't know the finer details of infrastructure but It is used for transferring crews for the oil rigs. There is a Lloyds helicopter based there.
Chas

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 19:50    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Thanks Chas.....The southeast outer eye wall is just passing over Faraway Bay....Clyve H

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 19:54    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Ingrid now appears to be taking a more westerly direction over the last 20 mins (ie last 2 RADAR images).
Kane.

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG:
Date: 03/15/2005 20:00    Subject: Ingrid about to make landfall
Hi All.
Ingrid is about to make landfall as shown on the Wyndham radar: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR072.loop.shtml
Regards,   Carl.

From: Roger Edson  To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/15/2005 20:20    Subject: Radar at Landfall for Cat 5 Ingrid
This is a real nice image from the Wyndham radar of Ingrid making landfall at Faraway Bay. What I like is watching the eyewall open up over 10min intervals as it reaches the land. Not sure if this is a common occurrence, but interesting.
I think Ingrid has finally no where else to go...what a great 'life' for a TC!
Roger
Roger Edson
Tropical Meteorologist

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 20:52    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
After watching Ingrid for the past 10 days or so, I was wondering why BOM only issue 3 hourly or longer warnings.
I can understand 3 hourly or longer warnings when it is out at sea, but when she is close to or corssing the coast (as Ingrid's eye is currently doing), I would assume that more frequent warnings would be appropriate, for example every 30 or 60 mins, whe the coastline and/or communities are directly at threat. As we have seen with Ingrid, her condition sometimes changed dramatically over a 3 hour period, including direction it is travelling, and intensity. There has been times where she was a cat 3 on one warning, and then 3 hours later a cat 5.
Just wondered why 3 hours was chosen as an appropriate gap between warnings, when the coastline is directly at threat from a cyclone, espec a Cat 5.
Kane.

From: "Gavin O'Brien"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 21:08    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Kane
they did when Althea was near Townsville and being tracked by the then new and tempory Mt Stuart Radar but then that is a BIG CITY i guess they think there's not much out there!   Certainly they can do hourlys if they wanted to!
Gavin

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 21:10    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
At 11:52 PM 15/03/2005, you wrote:
>After watching Ingrid for the past 10 days or so, I was wondering why BOM only issue 3 hourly or longer warnings.
> [snip rest of included message]
Seems to be universal. Even in the US, warnings are 3 hours apart, down to 2 hours when a storm approaches landfall, though with a brief position update in the intermediate hour.
73 de VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

From: "Gavin O'Brien"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 21:15    Subject: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
Hi all,
before retiring checked BOM latestTc warning in Ingrid warning is now 6 hours old! and is coming from Darwin TCWC Why? the TC is in WA Perth's AOR!The Radar shows it is just over land and moving SW. Pity help those people in its path.
Gavin
SSWW Canberra

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 21:19    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Ingrid WA
Fair enough, I was not aware of that, still think that 60 mins would be better when the coast is directly under threat, but I guess that make these decisions on the amount of people possibly affected.
Kane.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 21:22    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
Gavin,
Sorry to say this, but the latest warning is only 3 hours old, the times indicated are in WST, therefore 3 hours behind the east coast (2hr for QLD).
But it is strange that it has not been handed over to WA, maybe cause Darwin is still the closest major city?
Kane.

From: "Gavin O'Brien"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 22:20    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
Opps! Thanks Kane - I forgot that! Still 3 hours is a big long to wait for an update when the eye is so close to a town.
Gavin

From: Carl Smith  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 22:52    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
Hi Gavin.
[snip original message]
The warnings are being issued quite regularly at 3 hourly intervals, and it is still in Darwins AOR, which in this area runs 125E 10S, 125E 15S, 129E 15S (NT border), so it will not be handed over to Perth until it moves S of 15S or W of 125E.
As it is only moving at 10 km/hr, 3 hourly is probably sufficient, and in any case, ABC radio will be keeping locals informed as to where it is, and can broadcast any significant community specific information if necessary - the midnight (Qld. time) ABC news ran an item telling residents of Kulumburu to take shelter, as even though it was relatively benign at that time, conditions would quickly deteriorate to become extremely dangerous over a period of about 15 minutes.
Regards,   Carl.
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 78
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Tuesday 15 March 2005
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between The
NORTHERN TERRITORY BORDER and KURI BAY in Western Australia, including WYNDHAM,
and extending inland to DRYSDALE RIVER STATION.
At 9:00 pm WST [10:30pm CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, CATEGORY 5, was
located by radar crossing the North Kimberley coast about 60 kilometres
northeast of KALUMBURU and 210 kilometres northwest of WYNDHAM, moving south
southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with gusts to 285
kilometres per hour, is expected to continue moving inland and may start to
affect KALUMBURU in the next few hours.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are affecting the area
within 65 kilometres of the centre, and could last up to 12 hours at KALUMBURU.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are affecting the coast between
MITCHELL PLATEAU and WYNDHAM, and will extend inland towards DRYSDALE RIVER
STATION tonight and early on Wednesday. At this stage WYNDHAM is only expected
to be on the outer edge of INGRID.
Gales may extend further southwest to KURI BAY on Wednesday morning if INGRID
takes a more westward track, though this is considered less likely.
The cyclone
will gradually weaken on Wednesday as it travels further inland.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
TRUSCOTT and BERKELEY RIVER MOUTH tonight.
HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low lying areas and significant river and
stream rises in the north and east KIMBERLEY.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 9:00 pm WST [10:30pm CST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 127.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 935 hectoPascals
REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID with
gusts to 285 kilometres per hour, is crossing the North Kimberley coast and may
start to affect KALUMBURU in the next few hours.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 12:30 am WST [2 am CST].
This advice is available on telephone WA-1300 659 210 and NT-1300 659 211.
MEDIA: The following message is only for broadcast for areas in Western
Australia.
The WA State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: on the coast between Wyndham and Troughton Island, including
Kalumburu, Wyndham, Troughton Island and Oombulgurri.
YELLOW ALERT: on the Mitchell Plateau.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

From: "Paul (Stargazer)"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/15/2005 23:03    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
>Hi All, Looks like a direct hit on Kalumburu. This is a recorded weather station. </snip>
Kalumburu is now offline. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW65027/IDW65027.94100.shtml
Regs, Paul.   (Stargazer)

From: Carl Smith  To: TCDG: ;
Date: 03/15/2005 23:34    Subject: Ingrid - Kulumburu AWS knocked out?
Hi All.
Looks like the AWS at Kulumburu has been knocked out - see obs and radar image below [Ed. at right - click thumbnail].
ABC radio news at midnight AEST (22:00 AWST, 14:00 UTC) aired an item (probably aired a little earlier in NE WA) warning residents of Kulumburu to take shelter, as even though conditions were relatively benign at the time, they would quickly deteriorate to become extremely dangerous over a period of about 15 minutes!
On the ABC TV News earlier this evening, residents of Croker Island that copped Ingrid as it ran along the Top End of the Northern Territory described how they could hear the loud roar of the cyclone coming for some time before it hit, with conditions suddenly becoming extremely dangerous. The owner of a fishing resort described how the resort flew apart in the winds, and he took shelter in his 4 wheel drive vehicle, which was subsequently blown over 300 metres along the ground with him in it - it was only the fact that the winds eased that stopped him getting blown into the ocean.
Regards,   Carl.
Dy  Time Temp DewP RH Wnd Sp Sp Gu Gu Pres     mm
     WST   °C   °C  % Dir km kt km kt   hPa    mm
15 23:00    -    -  -   -  -  -   -  -    -     -
15 22:00    -    -  -   -  -  -   -  -    -     -
15 21:00 25.0 22.1 84 S   33 18 54 29 997.2  12.0
15 20:30 24.4 22.3 88 S   35 19 65 35 997.8  11.6
15 20:00 24.6 22.1 86 S   28 15 44 24 999.1   9.4
15 19:00 24.6 22.1 86 S   28 15 50 27 999.0   7.6
15 18:00 24.6 22.1 86 S   24 13 41 22 999.9   5.4
15 16:57 24.8 22.3 86 S   24 13 37 20 998.6   4.0
15 16:00 25.2 22.3 84 S   20 11 35 19 1000.4  2.6
15 15:00 25.5 22.0 81 SSE 17  9 35 19 1000.9  1.6
15 14:00 28.0 21.3 67 SSE 20 11 31 17 1000.7  0.4
15 13:00 29.0 20.5 60 SSE 20 11 39 21 1001.3  0.2
15 12:00 28.1 22.1 70 S   13  7 24 13 1002.8  0.2
15 11:00 28.6 21.1 64 SSE 13  7 24 13 1003.4  0.0
15 10:00 29.8 20.7 58 SSE 22 12 41 22 1003.7  0.0
15 09:00 29.1 20.5 60 SSE 24 13 43 23 1004.5  1.2
15 08:00 28.0 20.3 63 SSE 18 10 30 16 1004.3  1.2
15 07:00 27.2 20.8 68 SSE 17  9 26 14 1004.5  1.2
15 06:00 26.7 20.3 68 S   13  7 20 11 1004.3  1.2
15 05:00 26.4 20.3 69 S    9  5 15  8 1004.3  1.2
15 04:00 26.7 20.3 68 S   11  6 17  9 1003.5  1.2
15 03:00 25.8 21.1 75 SSE  9  5 13  7 1002.7  1.2
15 02:00 25.8 21.1 75 SSE 11  6 18 10 1003.8  1.2
15 01:00 25.1 21.2 79 SE   9  5 17  9 1004.1  1.2
15 00:00 24.7 21.4 82 ESE 13  7 22 12 1005.5  1.2

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: "Simon Clarke" , "Carl Smith" , "John Diebolt" , "Kevin Boyle" , "Phil Smith" 
Date: 03/16/2005 03:01    Subject: Fw: Question about Advice Times
I was curious about why some of the Darwin advices were on the half-hour CST as opposed to the normal even hour CST (which makes it the half hour UTC).
I sent a query to Mark Kersemakers at Darwin, who then forwarded it to Geoffrey Garden. If you're interested, go to the bottom and read the messages in reverse order.
----- Original Message -----
From: Garden, Geoffrey  To: Gary Padgett  Cc: Mark Kersemakers
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2005 10:49 AM   Subject: Fwd: Question about Advice Times
Hi Gary,
Mark has asked me to follow up your question - he is on vacation at the moment and came in to quickly check his email.
As Mark correctly suspected, we moved to hourly intermediate warnings from Advice 39, and these were issued with the most recent half-hourly radar fix. We issue hourly warnings when storm force winds or stronger are expected at major NT communities (specifically Darwin, Gove and Groote Eylandt) within about 12 hours - in this case we decided to continue the hourly service for Elcho Island residents because of the intensity of Ingrid at the time.
The half-hour old position for hourlies is in contrast to our standard procedure for routine 3-h advices, for which we give fix info for a nominal "issue time minus 1 hour". This is either the radar fix, or the most recent geostationary satellite fix. The arrival time for satellite images doesn't fit in as close as we would prefer for our standard warning issue times. For example, the 00Z image is available around 0045Z and analysis completed around 0100Z; we then have to get our warning out by 11 am CST = 0130Z. The next image (0100Z) arrives about 15 minutes after issue time.
Hope this hasn't confused you. If you need further clarification, just ask.
Regards, Geoff
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:15:37 +0930   To: "Garden, Geoffrey" 
From: Mark Kersemakers     Subject: Fwd: Question about Advice Times
Geoff,
Would you like to answer this one? I presume it had something to do with having it on radar and going into hourly warnings, but then we didn't change the fix time to the half-hour when it was on Darwin and Wyndham radars. I guess it is just purely when we issue hourly warnings, but I thought I'd better let you reply in case I'm wrong.
Perhaps we can change our policy to make it the half hour whenever it's on radar...
Mark
From: "Gary Padgett"   To: "Mark Kersemakers"
Subject: Question about Advice Times   Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2005 15:30:25 -0600
Hi Mark,
I've got an question about the fix times given in the public advices on TC Ingrid. When Darwin took over issuing the advices, the fix times in the advices were on the hour CST, which made them on the half hour UTC. But for advices 39-50, the positions were given for the half hour CST, or on the hour UTC. Then, beginning with 51, they were back to on the hour CST.
Just wondering what was the reason?
Hope you and your family are all doing well.
Best regards,
Gary

From: Appleweb  To: Smithp
Date: 03/16/2005 05:02    Subject: Kalumburu
Cyclones tend to not want to move inland. Their eyes will sometimes distort and linger near the coast. Unfortunately for Kalumburu Ingrid has decided to do this right over the town with her eyewall grinding in place for prolonged duration. Should have interesting reports out of there.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 05:04    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
All, looks like Ingrid is now tracking along the coast, just inland, I wonder if she is turning to head back to sea.
She is still a cat 4, which I can only attribute to her being so close to the coastline, thus keeping her intensity up, even though the eye has been over land for the last 7 hours or so.
Maybee she is not ready to die, time will tell.
Kane.

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 05:13    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
HI Paul, [snip] I woke to find that Kalumburu went offline way before the cyclone struck. This mornings RADAR shows it overhead of the township..
Maximum gusts at Kalumburu where ( - klm/hr)
Shane.

From: Neville Gibb   To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 07:13    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
JTWC's "Final Warning" at 15, 2100Z has her tracking SSE inland (from Kalumburu), then curving SSW and forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hrs?
Neville

From: Neville Gibb  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 07:17    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Warnings on Ingrid
Sorry, got that back to front:
JTWC's "Final Warning" at 15, 2100Z has her tracking SSW inland (from Kalumburu), then curving SSE and forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hrs?
Neville

From: Neville Gibb  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 07:51    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Just been reading this from: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12560113%255E30417,00.html
...Kalumburu, about 500km northeast of Derby, has a population of 550 people. The community's chief executive officer, John Voss, said residents were bracing for the worst. Power and water were to be disconnected at nightfall as a precautionary measure.
Owners of pearl farms along the Kimberley coast expressed serious concern of damage to their multi-million-dollar industry, already battered by Ingrid's destructive swathe across the Top End. Of special concern were pearl farms located in exposed open water, said Steven Arrow of Arrow Pearls. "My estimate is you would have about $100 million worth of . . . pearl stock at risk," he said. "These are shells due for harvest this year and next."
The Northern Territory Government has estimated that Ingrid may have caused about $5million damage after tearing through the Tiwi Islands and Croker Island over the weekend...
cheers  Neville

From: Jeff Callaghan  To: tcdg
Date: 03/16/2005 10:52    Subject: and now the rain
I note the EC hires has 450mm in 48 hours centred on 15.0S 127.5E
What is the factor to apply to this to get rain gauge amounts 2,3, or 4????
To all you warm air advection enthusiasts out there the EC forecast for this location at 12Z tonight is 850 NNE 50knots backing to N 50 knots at 700hPa backing to NNW 45knots at 500hPa ( a profile for biblical rainfall)

From: Robert  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 12:24    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
From the Age...
Shaken staff survive as cyclone flattens resort
March 16, 2005 - 2:31PM
Buildings were flattened and dinghies hurled 400m from their moorings as Cyclone Ingrid devastated the exclusive Faraway Bay eco-resort on Western Australia's Kimberley coast.
A caretaker couple at the remote property who sheltered overnight in a shipping container anchored in rock contacted resort owner Bruce Ellison in Kununurra at first light this morning.
"They're not injured but they're pretty shook up," Mr Ellison said.
"I spoke to them at 5.30am (WST) but I haven't been able to contact them since then."
The couple told Mr Ellison the resort's eight cabins, workshop, staff accommodation and generator shed were completely demolished by the then category five cyclone, which hit Faraway Bay at 9pm (WST) last night.
"The main building is built out of reject wharf pylons and they are still intact (although) the roof is mostly gone evidently," Mr Ellison said.
"There is total devastation, all the power lines are down.
"All the dinghies were secured; they have 90 horsepower engines and they were found 400m away in the bush.
"We had a 44-foot boat and we're not sure where that is."
Mr Ellison estimated the damage bill would be hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The resort, which catered mainly to fishermen, small corporate groups and travellers looking for a remote getaway, had been closed for the wet season and was due to reopen on the Easter weekend.
However, Mr Ellison said it would take at least a month until the campsite could be made habitable again, as major supplies had to be floated in on a barge from Wyndham, 200km away.
Mr Ellison said he built the resort in 1996 and it had been through several category three cyclones without suffering structural damage.
"But this was a category five, with winds of 280kph and we took a direct hit," he said.
With all available helicopters commandeered by emergency services personnel, Mr Ellison said he had not been able to inspect the damage at Faraway Bay for himself.
However, the resort's caretakers, whom he named only as Neville and Julie, were likely to be evacuated by helicopter later today, he said.
After hitting Faraway Bay, Ingrid spiralled towards Kalumburu, where evacuations of many of the town's 300-odd residents had been proceeding throughout yesterday.
The cyclone had lessened slightly to a category four system by the time it reached Kalumburu about 11pm (WST), but it was sufficiently strong to batter the settlement with six hours of unrelenting, destructive winds.
The township continued to experience winds of up to 125kph today, but Ingrid was downgraded to a category three as it moved further south and was expected to continue weakening.
"Within 24 hours it is most likely not going to be a cyclone any longer," Linda Paterson, of the Cyclone Warning Centre in Perth, said today.
Reports from Kalumburu indicated no major damage, although water and electricity supplies were cut.
State Emergency Service spokesman Mick McInerney said three houses had superficial structural damage, and the mission garage and workshop were also slightly damaged.
"Everybody is in their own homes just waiting it out," he said.
Fire and Emergency Services Authority crews were waiting for the winds to further abate before deciding whether to fly into the community to begin mopping up.
Authorities have not had any reports of injuries resulting from Cyclone Ingrid.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, by mid-morning Ingrid was 25km west-south-west of Kalumburu and 220km west-north-west of Wyndham, moving south-west at 5kph.
Ingrid's destructive core, with gusts to 175kph, was expected to move away from the Kalumburu area shortly, but winds of up to 140kph could continue to affect the area within 65km of the centre, including Kalumburu, for several hours.
Gales with gusts to 120kph were affecting the coast between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham, but the cyclone was expected to follow a more southward track later today, causing gales to extend to Drysdale River Station during the afternoon and possibly Gibb River tonight.
Tides will be higher than normal along the coast north and north-east of Kalumburu and heavy rain was likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas.
AAP

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 16:07   Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Lets hope that Ingrid continues to move inland, and die, and not decide to head back to sea, she has given us enough grief for an entire cyclone season, let alone a single cyclone.
Kane.

From: "Shane Williams"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 17:46    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi all, It is interesting to note that this cyclone is still able to hold on Cat 2 status. Being located near the coastline does have some support for it to remain at a Category 2. Advice 84 has it moving towards Wyndham.
Shane.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 18:35    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Looking at the radar map, the eye is only about 20kms from Wyndham.
Next advise from Perth should be at approx 22:00 AEDT (21:00 AEST).
Kane.

From: "Super Elmo"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 18:39    Subject: RE: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Correction, typo on my behalf, should have read 120kms.
Kane.

From: "G8.106"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 18:52    Subject: Re: [austpacwx] TC Ingrid
Hi all...Cant make out an eye, the overall radar image seems to show the rain areas being drawn out by upper northwest to south east shear, the actual centre has a look of an extra tropical circulation which is a bit odd .A weakish feeder band dissects Wyndham moving in from the north, the centre appears (remnant) to be 120 to 140 KLM northwest of the Wyndham radar with rain only appearing on its western flank there is a weak hook southeast of Kalumburu at the northern end of the rain band..regards Clyve H

From: "Clyve Herbert"  To: austpacwx
Date: 03/16/2005 19:34    Subject: [austpacwx] Willy WA
Just when the last nail was being put in the coffin of TC Willy the lid has blown off and its come to life again...well sort of anyway...a weak low level circulation this morning has bloomed into a multicell group this evening although it shows a reasonable upper shear spreading a bit more mid and upper cloud southeast. regards Clyve H

From: Roger Edson  To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/17/2005 11:39    Subject: Fwd: [Tropical-storms] Re: Ingrid's landfall in WA
Got this from one group and sending it to the other.
Roger
--- Andrew Burton  wrote:
> To: Chris Velden   From: Andrew Burton    CC: tropical-storms
> Subject: [Tropical-storms] Re: Ingrid's landfall in WA
> Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 11:11:29 +0800
> Chris,
> A small "eco-tourist" resort at a spot called Faraway Bay in the north   Kimberley (about as remote a site as you could get) copped the full force of a Cat 5 landfall and initial reports indicate there isn't much left of  the infrastructure there. They have a web site  www.farawaybay.com.au which shows what it used to look like. We're waiting to see the "after" photos - emergency services (and storm chaser, Geoff Mackley ) are due to fly in there today and will forward us some photos. The owners have issued a > media release (available on the web site) which confirms earlier reports that the caretakers are unharmed but damage is substantial. Not surprising  at all, especially given the local topography and those huts sticking up  above the tree line.
> Kalumburu is a community of around three to five hundred people which is  around 60 kilometres southwest of Faraway Bay - close to Ingrid's track.  Ingrid had weakened a little by the time it reached Kalumburu (estimate Cat 4 but haven't got the data from the AWS there yet,  maybe some days as we have to get someone to the site). Ingrid's movement stalled with the  centre around 30 kilometres to the southwest and they copped hurricane force winds most of the night. They seem to have done quite well, many  trees and power lines down, a couple of roofs off  and some smaller, weaker  structures destroyed but no one hurt and most of the  infrastructure intact.
> A couple of pictures are available on Geoff  Mackley's web site: http://rambocam.com/ (the name says it all!).
> The north Kimberley is relatively mountainous (for Australia that is) and as expected (especially for a small system) it  weakened fairly quickly as  it moved further inland - about 36 hours from Category 5 to below cyclone  intensity.
> Ingirid was certainly one for the record books - the only cyclone known to have had a Cat 4 or 5 impact in all three tropical regions (Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia).
> Regards
> Andrew
[footer details snipped]
> At 11:55 AM 16/03/2005 -0600, you wrote:
> >Andrew, whats the news on the Ingrid landfall???
> >Chris
Roger Edson
Tropical Meteorologist

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