Hurricane Frances ... Florida, USA ... 4th September 2004

Hurricane Frances was on 3rd September, still forecast to strike Florida on the afternoon of Saturday 4th September 2004 Local time (EST = GMT - 4 hours )

Current information on Tropical Storms World-wide:

As early as 24th August, Jim Leonard mentioned to the Tropical Cyclones Discussion Group a tropical disturbance that had been noticed in the Eastern Atlantic not far from Africa.  By 26th August Tropical Storm Frances had been named and was approaching hurricane strength.  At this stage the storm was still listed on my web site as "no threat to land."  I changed this to "no immediate threat to land" when the models started forecasting a possible approach towards Bahamas and Florida about a week in advance.  In a week, a tropical cyclone can decide to do almost anything it wants, despite our best efforts at forecasting. By 28th August, I was simultaneously tracking no fewer than ten active tropical cyclones on my page ... an all-time record!  I rapidly knocked off four of them as they decayed and changed my notation on Frances to "towards Bahamas and Florida" with orange colouring which always denotes that this cyclone is no immediate threat to populated areas.  As the discussion and forecasts showed landfall more and more likely, I changed the notation to red colouring which always means that this cyclone is potentially dangerous to populated areas.
In the late evening of Friday 3rd September, I decided to commence a web page - this one - to record al sorts of interesting facts about Frances as she approached Florida.  I shall endeavour to keep this page as up-to-date as possible during the next few days as Frances reaches and crosses Florida.  It seems that prayer is being answered as I type on the morning of 4th September, as Frances has weakened from a powerful Category Four Hurricane which was forecast to intensify to Category Five on Friday to a much less powerful Category Two this morning.
As you may gather from the e-mails and forecast maps, Frances stalled just off the coast until Sturday evening and then moved across the peninsula during Saturday night and all day Sunday.  According to TV broadcasts, insurance compamies estimated the damage done on the peninsula to be in excess of USD$10 billion.  The storm failed to fully regain Hurricane strenght over the Gulf and was still a Tropical Storm as it crossed the Panhandle into SW Georgia - SE Alabama area where warnings were discontinued.

News Links:

CNN: Downgraded Frances moves into Georgia 7 Sep 2004
CNN: Flooding, long lines in Frances' wake 7 Sep 2004
CNN: Riding out Frances 5 Sep 2004
BBC: Rescue flights leave for Florida 7 Sep 2004
BBC: Hurricane loss "less than feared" 7 Sep 2004
BBC: Hurricane Frances "still a risk" 6 Sep 2004
Palm Beach Post: Frances 6 Sep 2004

E-mail  History of Frances

I have compiled a selection of some of the e-mails in which Frances has been discussed by experts and amateur enthusiasts alike.  Sometimes you can read also about some of the simultaneous tropical cyclones which were active during the long life of Frances.   Occasionally I have cut irrelevant or personal sections out of e-mails, denoted by [snip], and I think I have inserted a comment of my own somewhere, denoted by [Editor:...].
Enjoy!

From: Jim Leonard  To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 08/24/2004 12:12  Subject: New Atlantic system.
It looks like the Atlantic basin is about to get some action again soon. The disturbance out at around 10N and 29W appears to be well on its way to become the next tropical storm or hurricane. Conditions ahead of it look quite favorable. This could be one of those all the way across the Atlantic type tracks we would expect this time of the season.
Jim

From: Matt Crowther   To: TCDG
Date: 08/24/2004 14:14   Subject: Re: New Atlantic system.
On Aug 24, 2004, at 12:12 AM, Jim Leonard wrote:
> It looks like the Atlantic basin is about to get some action again soon. The disturbance out at around 10N and 29W appears to be well on its way to become the next tropical storm or hurricane. Conditions ahead of it look quite favorable. This could be one of those all the way across the Atlantic type tracks we would expect this time of the season.
> Jim
We shall see if this one actually makes it all the way across- the main models have been saying no, including the latest GFDL.
Matt

From: "Jose Garcia"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/24/2004 23:07   Subject: RE: New Atlantic system.
Hi to all... Even though the GFS turns this system NW lets see if this forecast becomes a reality because conditions seem to be more favorable for a more westerly track in the next few days, NOGAPS seems to keep this system at a lower latitude in a track more towards the W-WNW. Lets see how this disturbance develops and moves across the area and also there are two or three more systems forecasted to develop after this one so a more active period coming as typical getting to the peak of the ATL season...
Stay tuned
>From: Jim Leonard    To: Typhoon Gang
>Subject: New Atlantic system.   Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 00:12:22 -0400
>It looks like the Atlantic basin is about to get some action again  soon. The disturbance out at around 10N and 29W appears to be well on its way to become the next tropical storm or hurricane.
>Conditions ahead of it look quite favorable. This could be one of those all the way across the Atlantic type tracks we would expect this time of the season.
>Jim

From: "Jose Garcia"   To: TCDG
Date: 08/26/2004 18:27  Subject: Frances now stronger 60mph
Hi to all...
Tropical storm Frances is now getting closer to hurricane strenght as it moves WNW17mph and gets closer to the islands, want to poin out that every model has been moving farther west this system in every new run so this means they bring this cyclone closer to the Northern Leeward Islands as time goes by, this was also pointed by Lixion Avila of NHC in the 5am 0900Z discussion.
We'll have to watch this system closely in the Caribbean because it may turn more to the west later in the period which could bring this system towards us as the ridge gets stronger. The system continues to have some light easterly shear which means that high its still pushing it in a more W track. So now that winds are estimated at 60mph they may already be upped to 65 or 70mph in the next advisory or even upgraded to hurricane strenght lets see how this difference in the forecast models ends...
Stay tuned

From: "Jose Garcia"   To: TCDG
Date: 08/26/2004 22:26   Subject: TS Frances nearing hurricane strenght
hi to all...
Tropical storm Frances is now nearing hurricane strenght and it has now moved more westward in the past hours and is developing an eye as it continues in rather favorable conditions for intensification. The models continue to be in no agreement about the future track of this storm so still the islands have a great chance to be hitted by this hurricane as it is now a classic Cape Verde track. Lixion Avila pointed out this posibility in the 5am 0900Z discussion about Frances. So weŽll have to watch this very carefully in the islands as TS Frances is about to become a hurricaneas it continues in that westward track...
stay tuned

From: Roger Edson  To: TCDG
Date: 08/26/2004 22:46   Subject: Re: JMA increased CHABA's winds to 110 knots!!! and almost Hur Frances
Karl,
Very nice summary.
BTW, Looks like Frances, indeed will soon be a hurricane as it has now developed a partial 85h eye.
Roger

From: Jim Leonard  To: TCDG
Date: 08/27/2004 13:15  Subject: Re: Georgette and TS 21W
Good One!
I see the 00Z gfs is bringing Frances on a track similar to Georges six years ago, could be an interesting week here next week.
Jim
Roger Edson wrote:
>You can see the green best if you wear prescription goggles...
>roger
>--- Jim Leonard  wrote:
>>Roger
>>Do you remember the last time you saw over 80 inches of rain during a three month period? I see Guam is over 30 inches for August combined with 10 last month and nearly 40 inches in June it should be really green there in Guam.
>>Jim

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/27/2004 13:44  Subject: actually..
all models have shifted left in the 00z run... nogaps, ukmet, gfs, cmc. the ukmet is left by 1.5 deg s and 3.4 deg w! wow.. of course in 7 days it is still a long ways away from florida but on this track.. way too close for comfort!
Eric
>From: Jim Leonard   To: TCDG
>Subject: Re: Georgette and TS 21W  Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 01:15:18 -0400
>Good One!
>I see the 00Z gfs is bringing Frances on a track similar to Georges six years ago, could be an interesting week here next week.
>Jim

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 04:29  Subject: Gaston and Frances
Vortex fix on Gaston shows 996mb and 59 kts- looks much better on satellite and radar the past 3 hours. I think this could become a hurricane, as it is not moving much right now.
Frances looks awesome on the sat- and the models are now converging on a south FL threat in about a week, then maybe from there into the Gulf.
Then we have the other disturbance south of Bermuda which could easily be classified as a TD at 5PM.
Wow- what an August!
Matt

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 04:59   Subject: Re: Gaston and Frances
> Wow- what an August!
> Matt
That's the understatement of the year!!!!!!
As of right now, there've been 19 NS (counting TS-21W) in the NH since Alex was named on 1 August. I'm pretty sure that's a record number of NS in any month since I started writing the TC summaries almost 7 yrs ago.
Gaston is the 7th Atlantic NS for August, tying 1933 and 1995, and an 8th one is certainly not out of the question as the LOW east of Gaston slowly becomes better organized.

From: "Gary Padgett"   To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 05:07   Subject: Re: Gaston and Frances
Further comments on Matt's message:
> Frances looks awesome on the sat- and the models are now converging on a south FL threat in about a week, then maybe from there into the Gulf.
Really interesting to speculate on just what Frances might do. If it does impact S Fla as the models are suggesting, and nothing happens to weaken it, Frances could turn out to be one of the truly great historical S Fla hurricanes on the order of 1926, 1928, Donna or Andrew.
Another thing which is very interesting is the pattern of WestPac activity lately, with the primary area of formation shifting east to the Marshall Islands. This is more typical of El Nino years.
Wonder if that's a harbinger of an El Nino coming soon????

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 05:08   Subject: RE: Gaston and Frances
If the disturbance S of Bermuda becomes a named storm before the end of the month, we will tie the record for the most number of named storms (8) to form in one month in the Atlantic basin. The record of 8 was just set only 2 years ago in Sept!
With Charley's impact still fresh in everyone's mind, I can see the media hype for Frances going through the roof, especially if Florida ends up being the target.
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Matt Crowther   Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 4:29 PM
To: TCDG   Subject: Gaston and Frances
Vortex fix on Gaston shows 996mb and 59 kts- looks much better on satellite and radar the past 3 hours. I think this could become a hurricane, as it is not moving much right now.
Frances looks awesome on the sat- and the models are now converging on a south FL threat in about a week, then maybe from there into the Gulf.
Then we have the other disturbance south of Bermuda which could easily be classified as a TD at 5PM.
Wow- what an August!
Matt

From: Fu Dickson   To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 05:23   Subject: Re: Gaston and Frances
Hi all,
I thought nobody cares about Gaston until I received this.
Strange. I couldn't see any headline about Gaston at CNN, Foxnews and etc. Will it pose any threat when it makes landfall in South Carolina? Or, it is simply because the media turn the focus on olympic, especially the "Dream Team" and the disappointing athletics team.
Cheers,  Dickson Fu,  Hong Kong
Matt Crowther  wrote:
Vortex fix on Gaston shows 996mb and 59 kts- looks much better on satellite and radar the past 3 hours. I think this could become a hurricane, as it is not moving much right now.
Frances looks awesome on the sat- and the models are now converging on a south FL threat in about a week, then maybe from there into the Gulf.
Then we have the other disturbance south of Bermuda which could easily be classified as a TD at 5PM.
Wow- what an August!
Matt

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 05:26   Subject: RE: Gaston and Frances
For the 1926 Miami hurricane, if I remember correctly, adjusted for inflation and the build up over the decades in the Miami area, the damage in 2000 dollars for the same hurricane would be on the order of nearly 90 billion dollars. That just boggles the mind.
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Padgett  Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 5:08 PM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: Gaston and Frances
Further comments on Matt's message:
> Frances looks awesome on the sat- and the models are now converging on a south FL threat in about a week, then maybe from there into the Gulf.
Really interesting to speculate on just what Frances might do. If it does impact S Fla as the models are suggesting, and nothing happens to weaken it, Frances could turn out to be one of the truly great historical S Fla hurricanes on the order of 1926, 1928, Donna or Andrew.
Another thing which is very interesting is the pattern of WestPac activity lately, with the primary area of formation shifting east to the Marshall Islands. This is more typical of El Nino years.
Wonder if that's a harbinger of an El Nino coming soon????

From: Ethan Henley  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 09:05  Subject: Re: Gaston and Frances
Hi, All,
WOW! What an Aug. , 7 possibly 8 TC in one month thats amazing. Frances looks awsome and Gaston is looking more impressive.
WOW!
B/R Ethan

From: Jim Leonard   To: Typhoon Gang
Date: 08/29/2004 14:09   Subject: ukmet
I see the latest 00Z ukmet shows a scary scenario for Florida. The model takes Frances over Miami to just north of Naples to just offshore Tampa in a recurving path.
Jim

From: "Phil Smith"   To: austpacwx
Date: 08/29/2004 19:24  Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
Hi Bussie and all,
Check out the Northern Hemisphere for Tropical Cyclones.
Yesterday I was tracking ten storms simultaneously on my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm but I have dropped off three storms yesterday when they got below 25 Knots and another one today, so now I only have six on the page.
We have had 16 or 17 named storms for August so far, maybe more ... I haven't kept count that carefully - too busy typing up all the HTML.
The current ukmet model shows Hurricane Frances making a direct hit on Miami late this week, then passing just North of Naples and then making a direct hit on Tampa after recurving over the Gulf.
Typhoon Chaba, nearing Kyushu, Japan, has an eye of 100 NM and 50 Knot winds out to 300 NM radius in all directions. Its outer rainbands are currently covering South Korea, Kyushu, Shikoku, almost all of Honshu, Taiwan, Okinawa, Ryukyu Is, and NE Philippines. The total storm is thus well over 1200 km in diameter maybe over 2000 km. Talk of shades of "The Day After Tomorrow"!
Meanwhile here in Hong Kong we have Tropical Depression AERE (ex-20W) sitting directly over us and emptying the heavens upon us. Nearly got drowned going to Church this morning. So far today the observatory here has hoisted Thunderstorm Warnings, Rainstorm Warnings, Flooding Warnings and Landslip Warnings.
The river outside my window looks like milk coffee because of all the soil being washed down. Check http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/rainfall/isohyet_p24e.shtml for our 24-hour isohyet chart.
I'd be more than glad to share some of this downpour with you guys in Oz if only we could figure out a way to tow this cloud mass down there.
Phil
<><

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"   To: austpacwx
Date: 08/29/2004 20:08  Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
At 09:24 PM 29/08/2004, you wrote:
>Hi Bussie and all,
>Check out the Northern Hemisphere for Tropical Cyclones.
>Yesterday I was tracking ten storms simultaneously on my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm but I have dropped off three storms yesterday when they got below 25 Knots and another one today, so now I only have six on the page.
WOAH! :-)
Well, I'm just firing up systems here for Tropical Storm Gaston, and we're all keeping an eye on Frances for late next week. The irony is that I am scheduled to do a talk at the local radio club on my activities with Charley - there seems a good chance Frances might cause that to be postponed!!!
Such is life. :)
73 de VK3JED  http://vkradio.com

From: "Paul Yole"   To: austpacwx
Date: 08/29/2004 20:27  Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
Lets hope not Tony.
I've been tracking Frances since early development and with it's current intensity, if it makes landfall, there is going to be some major destruction. Already rated as a Category 4 hurricane, Frances is looking at even becoming a Category 5 over the next few days.
Talking with fellow US chasers, we are looking at Frances possibly turning more to the NW after it crosses the Bermuda area and heading up the coast towards Northern Florida, but that is still too early at this stage to know. But a majority agreed that if this happened, that SC would probably bear the brunt of a landfall.
For those that are wondering what is happening, I've uploaded a screen capture from my hurricane tracking software at HYPERLINK http://www.lexicon.net/yolestorm/hurricane/US.GIF   Image was uploaded @ 22:25
Hopefully this one will stay away from SW Fl and my fiance and son.
PaulY

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 08/29/2004 20:42  Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
At 10:27 PM 29/08/2004, you wrote:
>Lets hope not Tony.
>I've been tracking Frances since early development and with it's current intensity, if it makes landfall, there is going to be some major destruction. Already rated as a Category 4 hurricane, Frances is looking at even becoming a Category 5 over the next few days.
That's my view exactly. SST's look quite high and the path is almost entirely water, which means conditions are ripe for intensification. The more immediate issue is Tropical Storm Gaston. I've already activated some systems for that event, but Frances is the more worrying one. I don't like the look of Frances, something bugging me about that storm. Hope I'm wrong.
> Talking with fellow US chasers, we are looking at Frances possibly turning more to the NW after it crosses the Bermuda area and heading up the coast towards Northern Florida, but that is still too early at this stage to know. But a majority agreed that if this happened, that SC would probably bear the brunt of a landfall.
The models are mixed with some saying FL, others saying SC. Some of the guys on the Skywarn Net this morning made comparisons between Frances and Andrew.
73 de VK3JED  http://vkradio.com

From: "Paul Yole"  To: austpacwx
Date: 08/29/2004 21:06  Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
Agreed Tony.
Frances has been bugging me too, and it is a similar path to what Andrew took. I've taken a screenshot of the similarities between Andrew's path and Frances' forecast path... Both quite similar at the moment, although Andrew took a more northerly bend than Frances is forecast too, but it wouldn't take too much to bend out west and make a dash for Miami and Southern Florida again.
The screenshot is at HYPERLINK http://www.lexicon.net/yolestorm/hurricane/AndrewFrances.GIF
Fortunately Gaston isn't going to be a major hurricane, but with the advent of Charley not too long ago, the area is still suffering Charley's after effects. Some major flooding could well follow.
Hopefully Gaston remains below Category 1 levels, although the forecast is for it to make the bare minimums for a Cat 1.
PaulY

From: "Phil Smith"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/29/2004 21:41  Subject: Fwd: RE: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
Hi all,
This thread from one of my other groups has a link to an interesting comparison of the paths of Frances and Andrew.
http://www.lexicon.net/yolestorm/hurricane/AndrewFrances.GIF
Tony is a ham radio operator as well as a weather enthusiast and he works the "graveyard shift" co-ordinating rescue operations when hurricanes
strike the US coast.
Phil
<><

From: Fu Dickson   To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 00:42  Subject: Hurricane Frances seen from the space station
Hi all,
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0408/27hurricane/
These photos of Hurricane Frances were taken by Astronaut Mike Fincke aboard the International Space Station as he flew 230 statute miles above the storm on Friday.
At the time, Frances was located 820 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean, moving west-northwest at 10 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour.
Fincke, the NASA ISS Science Officer and Flight Engineer, and Expedition 9 Commander Gennady Padalka are in the fifth month of a six-month flight aboard the Station.

From: KHoarau  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 04:12  Subject: Frances at 949 hPa
Hi all,
the first recon gives a SLP of 949 mb with a flight level wind of 97 kt in the weakest semi-cirle.
Karl
138
URNT12 KNHC 291936
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/1935Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
55 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2685 M
D. 55 KT
E. 230 DEG 075 NM
F. 301 DEG 97 KT
G. 207 DEG 009 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 10 C/ 3023 M
J. 20 C/ 3076 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.2/2 NM
P. AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SW QUAD 1933Z.

From: KHoarau  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 04:37  Subject: Frances at 949 hPa
Hi all,
The maximum flight wind(700mb) reported by the recon was in the northern quadrant with a speed of 112 kt. This matches with a MSW of 100 kt but the northeasthern or easthern quadrant has not been investigated yet.
The max wind I saw was 127 kt at 913 mb(390 m).
Karl

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: "TCDG"
Date: 08/30/2004 05:08  Subject: Record Number of ATL TS for August
Hermine has been named exactly 4 wks to the day after Alex was named, making this the first calendar month of August in the Atlantic to see 8 NS develop. The previous record of 8 NS for a calendar month was set just two yrs ago for September of 2002.
However, within just the last 20 yrs there have been 3 instances (in the Atlantic) of 9 NS forming within a 30-day period, but not a calendar month:
1984 - 29 Aug to 26 Sep (Arthur, Bertha, Cesar, Diana, Edouard, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore)
1995 - 30 Jul to 29 Aug (Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen, Luis)
2002 - 29 Aug to 23 Sep (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Isidore, Josephine, Kyle, Lili)

From: KHoarau  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 07:18  Subject: Frances at 115 kt !!!
Hi all,
A dropsonde released near 19N/55.6W in the northwest eyewall at 2122Z recorded a SLP of 967 mb and the following wind :
surface : 345° 112kt
966 mb(8m) : 345° 111 kt
950 mb(160m) : 355° 137 kt
945 mb(205m) : 000° 138 kt
925 mb(394m) : 005° 144 kt
916 mb(474m) : 010° 150 kt
900 mb(670m) : 015° 142 kt
This wind matches more with a 115 kt wind.
The latest SLP in the eye gave 952 mb.
Karl

From: Roger Edson  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 08:42  Subject: RE: Gaston is Quacking like a Duck
I know you saw Rich's reply, but this is to the rest of our group: (not sure if the 'estimated' surface winds of 65kts will have any bearing on the final determination--unless someone does a storm damage review along the coast at the exact landfall location):
Hi Roger,
Greetings from St Croix. We have a full deployment to St Croix (and then some) for Frances...the full court press when it comes to recon.
On our way from Keesler yesterday we delayed six hours off the South Carolina coast and did four fixes on Gaston. Considering it was hardly on anyone's list Friday morning, it had a very interesting 48 hour life as a TC. I have attached three files, one is the raw obs file for the mission, the other two are just HDOBS, including an excel spreadsheet of our HBOBS while down at low level in the storm. If you plot up the data you will see a very good sampling of the thermodynamic environment of a vigorous TS down at 300 meters For Dr Molinari: John, the dew point hygrometer was working very well yesterday and I think we saw another example of how a great deal of thermodynamic energy was accumulating in the core of Gaston.
At 300 meters we had a strong upward spike in both the eye temp and eye dew point on each of our four passes through the center. With an eye temp of over 26C and eye dew points as high as 25.2C, the theta e values in the core were very high. On our final fix we actually would have loved to have released two sondes, as silly as that may seem from 300 meters, the first to confirm the 65 knot surface winds we clearly saw for about two minutes just prior to the fix (with FL winds still holding at less than 60 knots), and then in the eye, to get a better feel for just how warm the boundary layer below us really was. Unfortunately, the GPS sondes drop at about 1000 meters per minute so we would not have gotten more than about 20 seconds of good data before it splashed. IMHO, it would have been well worthwhile in this case, but I am not sure how the Air Force would have viewed it (and at $500+ apiece it may have been a painful salary deduction).
The effort being mounted to study Frances is really noteworthy. We not only have the regular recon fix missions but also buoy drop missions and high altitude synoptic surveillance tracks. NOAA is flying the P3s on both CBLAST and low-level SFMR missions along with the G-IV doing more synoptic tracks. Gaston was something of a victim of aircraft availability. TD#8, which has probably already formed by now and might even be Hermine already, will also be difficult to fly with all the Frances stuff going on.
If that were not enough, last night we just happened to fly right through the center of a cold core TUTT cell northwest of Puerto Rico (with about a 3 to 4 degree temp drop in the core at our FL of 25,000 feet) on our way to St Croix from Gaston. I notice today that there is a persistent batch of convection associated with this feature. Who knows...maybe we will have yet another system to watch if it undergoes a transition.
For anyone in St Croix over the next few days, I am at the Buccaneer if you want to get together and have lunch......Rich
--- "Chris Fogarty [Halifax]"

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 13:57  Subject: Frances
It has peaked for now, and NHC has backed off on the intensity forecast- keeping it at 110 kts thru the period. The track models have mostly converged on a farther north scenario- including the 00Z GFS- which has the data from a NOAA plane that got some synoptic scale data which was incorporated into the 00Z cycle. Therefore Miami and south FL seem to be in less danger from Frances, but there is still a long way to go.
Matt

From: "Tony Langdon, VK3JED"  To: austpacwx
Date: 08/30/2004 16:02  Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Wow and Bigger Wow!
At 11:06 PM 29/08/2004, you wrote:
>Agreed Tony.
>Frances has been bugging me too, and it is a similar path to what Andrew took. I've taken a screenshot of the similarities between Andrew's path and Frances' forecast path... Both quite similar at the moment, although Andrew took a more northerly bend than Frances is forecast too, but it wouldn't take too much to bend out west and make a dash for Miami and Southern Florida again.
Indeed, that's not beyond the realms of probability. Depends what model is closest to reality. Also, Hermine has crept into the scene. Anyway, looks like I've got a busy week. Just starting a 3 hour+ shift on the air...
73 de VK3JED

From: Matthew Saxby  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 16:57  Subject: Frances fizzling?
Dear All,
The latest Intermediate Advisory (21A) from NHC has Frances SLP up to 959mb (or hPa, for SH readers). That's quite a rapid rise in the last few hours, and I'm beginning to think Frances might be about to fall apart. Any comment?
[snip]
Yours,  Matthew S.

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 18:35  Subject: Re: Frances fizzling?
On Aug 30, 2004, at 4:57 AM, Matthew Saxby wrote:
> Dear All,
> The latest Intermediate Advisory (21A) from NHC has Frances SLP up to 959mb (or hPa, for SH readers). That's quite a rapid rise in the last few hours, and I'm beginning to think Frances might be about to fall apart. Any comment?
The latest fix is back down to 957- and it looks better on the satellite, so despite the recent weakening, the storm is hardly falling apart. It may go through a few more fluctuations the next several days, but overall I think it will probably remain a major hurricane, but may never regain the extreme strength it once had. Anything is possible, though,
Matt

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 20:38  Subject: Re: Frances fizzling?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matthew Saxby"  To: "TCDG"
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 3:57 AM  Subject: Frances fizzling?
> Dear All,
> The latest Intermediate Advisory (21A) from NHC has Frances SLP up  to 959mb (or hPa, for SH readers). That's quite a rapid rise in the last
few hours, and I'm beginning to think Frances might be about to fall apart.  Any   comment?
According to the 0900Z discussion, Frances has been experiencing some southerly shear, which is forecast to lessen in about 36 hrs. Also, recon found outer wind maxima, which suggest the hurricane will likely continue to undergo eyewall replacement cycles, which usually result in fluctuations in intensity.

From: Jim Leonard  To: Typhoon Gang
Date: 08/30/2004 21:59  Subject: Hurricane Frances
The overall cloud structure of hurricane Frances is better organized this morning, the cloud sheild is much rounder on the western semicircle than 24 hours ago. Cirrus clouds are moving more outward on the west side than 24 hours ago. The faster forward motion indicates the ridge has built in as the models had indicated earlier. Long range tracking looks more like a South Carolina hit than a Florida hit right now. The approach to the coast looks similar to hurricane Floyd except this time this storm will probably not recurve to the NE as it approaches the coast.
Jim

From: Roger Edson  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 22:59  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances
Of course the MI, tells the true tale... Looks like Frances is undergoing a eyewall cycle.
roger

From: "Jose Garcia"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/30/2004 23:26  Subject: Hurricane Frances approaching CPA to Puerto Rico tuesday afternoon
Hi to all...
Hurricane Frances now is accelerating and moving closer to the Northern Leeward Islands now Puerto Rico is under a tropical storm watch and tropical storm conditions will probaby be felt here late tomorrow as the storm makes it CPA to the island probably around 110nm north of San Juan and closer to Fajardo (NE tip of Puerto Rico, and Culebra). It will depend in the wind radii and distance of the storm from Puerto Rico to see if tropical storm force winds will be felt and how strong they will be. The storm now seems to be deepening slowly and may be a cat-4 at CPA so great images from the radar will be able to be seen from here. Will continue to update you from Puerto Rico and how conditions become tomorrow as hurricane Frances works its way westward just north of here...
Stay Tuned
P.S. This storm looks as a good prospect for chasing in the NW or Central Bahamas...

From: "Chris Fogarty [Halifax]"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 00:04  Subject: RE: Hurricane Frances approaching CPA to Puerto Rico tuesday afternoon
Thanks guys. I am bad with acronyms, so many! must be getting old hahaha
Chris
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael P. Pitt  Sent: August 30, 2004 12:51 PM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances approaching CPA to Puerto Rico tuesday afternoon
Chris
its a US Navy term meaning CPA=Closest Point of Approach
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Chris Fogarty [Halifax]  To: TCDG
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 11:35 AM  Subject: RE: Hurricane Frances approaching CPA to Puerto Rico tuesday afternoon
what is CPA?
Chris

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 01:09  Subject: RE: Frances
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the danger to any part of Florida, especially given the average 5 day error of 300+ miles. the 12Z GFS is back to farther south.. and the GFDL keeps shifting the track left. It is way early to even mention a landfall point.. except to say that it is going to hit the united states somewhere between s florida and cape fear!
Eric
>From: Matt Crowther  TCDG
>Subject: Frances  Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 01:57:31 -0400
>It has peaked for now, and NHC has backed off on the intensity forecast- keeping it at 110 kts thru the period. The track models have mostly converged on a farther north scenario- including the 00Z GFS- which has the data from a NOAA plane that got some synoptic scale data which was incorporated into the 00Z cycle. Therefore Miami and south FL seem to be in less danger from Frances, but there is still a long way to go.
>Matt

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 01:16  Subject: RE: Gaston and Frances
1926 was also a weak El Nino year... just for fun.
Also "great" is in the eye of the beholder... perhaps more powerful is a better term! :)
Especially when you live in Miami Beach on a first floor apartment and having just moved into a new apartment.
Eric
>From: "Konon, Boris"  To: TCDG
>Subject: RE: Gaston and Frances  Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 17:26:20 -0400
> For the 1926 Miami hurricane, if I remember correctly, adjusted for inflation and the build up over the decades in the Miami area, the damage in 2000 dollars for the same hurricane would be on the order of nearly 90 billion dollars. That just boggles the mind.
> Boris

From: "Jose Garcia"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 01:18  Subject: RE: Hurricane Frances approaching CPA to Puerto Rico tuesday afternoon
hahaha don' worry Chris... just half hour ago San Juan Intl. Airport reported a gust to 31mph when a squall just passed by, things getting interesting... I don't think S Florida is out of the woods yet so many days to track it we will have better idea as time passes by...
Stay tuned

From: Jim Leonard  To: Typhoon Gang
Date: 08/31/2004 02:34  Subject: Hurricane Frances
As Eric pointed out the models are shifting westward again. The 12Z ukmet takes the storm over Palm Beach then across the state WNW into the direction of the Florida panhandle. The gfdl says Jacksonville at 12Z which is also to the left. This is looking more and more grim for Florida residents, especially central part of the state where they haven't finished the recovery from hurricane Charley.
Jim

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: "TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 03:19  Subject: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
I know most attention is now focused on Frances, Gaston, and Hermine, but take a look at this thing just came off of Africa.
<<nextdepression.jpg>>
Pretty amazing. It's likely already a TD!
There's more where that came from...take a look at the seemingly endless train of thunderstorm clusters over Africa.
<<tropics_on_fire.jpg>>
Boris

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 04:18  Subject: Re: Frances
Personally I love the cone with the "eye catching black line" as Bryan Norcross calls it, but I do wonder if it is wise to make the graphic with that
forecast track, especially out to 5-days, so easily available????
----- Original Message -----
From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 12:09 PM  Subject: RE: Frances
> I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the danger to any part of Florida, especially given the average 5 day error of 300+ miles. the 12Z GFS is back to farther south.. and the GFDL keeps shifting the track left. It is way early to even mention a landfall point.. except to say that it is going to hit the united states somewhere between s florida and cape fear!
> Eric

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 04:22  Subject: Re: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
----- Original Message -----
From: Konon, Boris  To: TCDG (E-mail)
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 2:19 PM  Subject: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
I know most attention is now focused on Frances, Gaston, and Hermine,
but take a look at this thing just came off of Africa.
Pretty amazing. It's likely already a TD!
I kinda think it likely we'll have TD-09 and TD-11E before August makes it exit tomorrow, and I wouldn't be overly surprised if we don't have tropical storms Ivan and/or Howard.
[snip]
Boris

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 05:08  Subject: RE: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
I didn't even think of that! We could have 9 named storms in a
calendar month to set a new ATL record!
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Padgett  Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 4:22 PM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
----- Original Message -----
From: Konon, Boris  To: TCDG
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2004 2:19 PM  Subject: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
I know most attention is now focused on Frances, Gaston, and Hermine, but take a look at this thing just came off of Africa.
Pretty amazing. It's likely already a TD!
I kinda think it likely we'll have TD-09 and TD-11E before August makes it exit tomorrow, and I wouldn't be overly surprised if we don't have tropical storms Ivan and/or Howard.

From: Jim Leonard  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 05:39  Subject: Re: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
This system looks like a flash in the pan as its too high of latitude already.
Gfs has been advertising a storm coming across the atlantic later this week and next week for several runs now. It maybe one of those in the cluster of storms over Africa right now.
Jim
Konon, Boris wrote:
> I didn't even think of that! We could have 9 named storms in a calendar month to set a new ATL record!
> Boris

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 12:55  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances
On Aug 30, 2004, at 2:34 PM, Jim Leonard wrote:
> As Eric pointed out the models are shifting westward again. The 12Z ukmet takes the storm over Palm Beach then across the state WNW into the direction of the Florida panhandle. The gfdl says Jacksonville at 12Z which is also to the left. This is looking more and more grim for
> Florida residents, especially central part of the state where they haven't finished the recovery from hurricane Charley.
> Jim
Model guidance continues to be rather inconsistent- the new GFS has shifted way to the left/east, with landfall in North Carolina Sunday.
However, most other models- SEF/ECMWF/Japanese are sticking to the FL landfall scenario- the JMA actually has Frances moving through the Keys and into the Gulf. Bottom line- a US landfall still seems very likely, where/when still very much in question- personally I am still betting on Florida.
Matt

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 13:06  Subject: frances and models
See below...
>From: Matt Crowther   To: TCDG
>Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances  Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 00:55:22 -0400
>On Aug 30, 2004, at 2:34 PM, Jim Leonard wrote:
>>As Eric pointed out the models are shifting westward again. The 12Z ukmet takes the storm over Palm Beach then across the state WNW into the direction of the Florida panhandle. The gfdl says Jacksonville at 12Z which is also to the left. This is looking more and more grim for Florida residents, especially central part of the state where they haven't finished the recovery from hurricane Charley.
>>Jim
>Model guidance continues to be rather inconsistent- the new GFS has shifted way to the left/east, with landfall in North Carolina Sunday. However, most other models- SEF/ECMWF/Japanese are sticking to the FL landfall scenario- the JMA actually has Frances moving through the Keys and into the Gulf.
>Bottom line- a US landfall still seems very likely, where/when still very much in question- personally I am still betting on Florida.
>Matt
I don't know what to think either. the GFS is way right of the previous 18z while the NOGAPS is left.. taking it into PBI. so ... ??? the UKMET will help i hope. Where do you look at the SEF model on the internet?
I would say that a US landfall is a "slam dunk" (current fun political rhetoric)... :)
I think Frances will have a nice big eye tomorrow like Isabel judging from the last IR sat/microwave... we shall see what happens after the eclipse and
when recon is in there at 2 am EDT.
Eric

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 13:47  Subject: Fwd: Hurricane Frances
I meant that the track on the GFS has shifted right, not left.
The SEF canadian model output is at:  http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
Matt

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 13:50  Subject: Re: frances and models
Hi Eric,
I use: http://meteocentre.com/models/models_e.html
BTW...I put half my shutters up here in Melbourne Time always seems to get short on me, and since I had the day off, I figured I'd get started - If any chasers wander over this way, you're welcome to stop in an say hi - either at the office or at my house.
b/r  Tony C.  NWS Melbourne FL
----- Original Message -----
From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 1:06 AM  Subject: frances and models
<snip>
Where do you look at the SEF model on the internet?

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 13:58  Subject: Re: frances and models
Hi Eric,
The UKMET vort tracker just came in...
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2004 19.7N 60.6W INTENSE
12UTC 31.08.2004 20.3N 63.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2004 21.2N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2004 22.0N 69.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2004 23.1N 71.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2004 24.4N 73.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2004 25.6N 75.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2004 26.5N 77.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2004 27.8N 79.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2004 28.8N 80.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2004 30.2N 81.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2004 31.3N 82.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2004 32.7N 83.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
Trended northward some - Looks like it takes it inland right over Jacksonville
v/r  Tony C.  NWS Melbourne FL

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 14:18  Subject: Re: frances and models
yeah, ukmet right... nogaps left... gfs way right.. gfdl way right... cmc about the same...
the best two so far in the model world for frances have just come in right (UK/GFS) so I think you have to take that into account.. however, we have seen this one model runs variation before so I doubt Jack will bite off totally onto this new track yet.
gee it has been awhile since NE Florida has had a major hurricane!
Eric

From: Jim Leonard  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 14:23  Subject: Re: frances and models
Dora in 1964 was the closest thing to a major in 20th century up there.
Eric Blake wrote:
[snip]
> gee it has been awhile since NE Florida has had a major hurricane!
> Eric

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 14:40  Subject: Re: frances and models
For anyone keeping score at home, here are the major global model solutions at 120 hours from the CMC, ECM, GFS, NGP, and UKM. It is apparent that I am thoroughly surrounded - so should I come out with my hands up in the air?
v/r  Tony C.  NWS Melbourne, FL

From: "Heming, Julian"  To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 08/31/2004 20:00  Subject: RE: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
>From first visible imagery today, there seems little doubt that we'll have TS Ivan before the day (and month) is out.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20040831.1100.meteo7.x.vis1km.97LINVEST.20kts-NAmb-160N-205W.jpg
Julian

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 20:03  Subject: Re: frances and models
The last time Georgia had a major hurricane was in 1898.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Leonard"  To: TCDG
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 1:23 AM  Subject: Re: frances and models
> Dora in 1964 was the closest thing to a major in 20th century up there.
> Eric Blake wrote:
> > yeah, ukmet right... nogaps left... gfs way right.. gfdl way right... cmc about the same...
> > the best two so far in the model world for frances have just come in right (UK/GFS) so I think you have to take that into account..
> > however, we have seen this one model runs variation before so I doubt Jack will bite off totally onto this new track yet.
> > gee it has been awhile since NE Florida has had a major hurricane!
> > Eric

From: Roger Edson  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 20:18  Subject: RE: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
According to my watch, you've got two hours to make good...
roger
--- "Heming, Julian" wrote:
> >From first visible imagery today, there seems  little doubt that we'll have TS Ivan before the day (and month) is out.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20040831.1100.meteo7.x.vis1km.97LINVEST.20kts-NAmb-160N-205W.jpg
> Julian

From: Matthew Saxby  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 20:28  Subject: Re: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
Dear Julian (and all),
> >From first visible imagery today, there seems little doubt that we'll have TS Ivan before the day (and month) is out.
Seems a bit doubtful at the moment...according to what I've been getting, convection near the centre isn't much chop at present and it might take a bit longer to spin up than the next 12 hours or so...
Yours,
Matthew

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 20:37  Subject: Latest Frances models
00Z ECMWF continues a left track into the Gulf after crossing south FL.
Latest 06Z GFS has shifted a bit left, but still is a right outlier, with landfall in SC Sunday night. The GFS ensemble at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/ensembles/ - shows this large spread - with the majority of the members showing the storm east of FL, but at least one has the Gulf solution. Stay tuned.....
Matt

From: Matthew Saxby  To: TCDG
Date: 08/31/2004 20:45  Subject: Re: ATL Tropics on Fire (TD 9 soon?)
Dear Roger (and all),
> According to my watch, you've got two hours to make good...
Yeah, but remember the Atlantic is a good 12 hours behind Guam :) Even UTC gives August >11hours yet... but I suspect it would take more than that to get wannabe-TD 09L into gear. So I think we're seeing No. 1 for September rather than the last NS of August...
MS

From: Dosidicus  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 00:15  Subject: Re: frances and models
Given that hurricane landfalls between Cape Canaveral and the SC border are very rare, I'm betting that in the final analysis it will hit SC, or even NC, rather than in the "dead zone" around Jacksonville.
-John

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 01:21  Subject: Re: frances and models
I agree... but you know, 8 TS in the Atlc in August is also rare!
Climatology only goes so far!
1898 was a long time ago for an IH in Georgia
ERic
>From: Dosidicus  To: TCDG
>Subject: Re: frances and models  Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 12:15:40 EDT
>Given that hurricane landfalls between Cape Canaveral and the SC border are very rare, I'm betting that in the final analysis it will hit SC, or even NC, rather than in the "dead zone" around Jacksonville.
>-John

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 01:36  Subject: Re: frances and models
On Aug 31, 2004, at 12:15 PM, Dosidicus wrote:
> Given that hurricane landfalls between Cape Canaveral and the SC border are very rare, I'm betting that in the final analysis it will hit SC, or even NC, rather than in the "dead zone" around Jacksonville.
> -John
You could also make the argument that this area is "overdue"- since there is precedent for landfalls in this region, albeit very infrequently.
Matt

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: "TCDG"
Date: 09/01/2004 01:53  Subject: Recon found 942 mb
The latest vortex message reports a CP of 942 mb.

From: Patrick HOAREAU  To: TCDG, Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 09/01/2004 02:23  Subject: TC FRANCES
Hi to all,
here the latest from Puerto Rico .
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Patrick

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 03:26  Subject: Re: frances and models
On Aug 31, 2004, at 1:21 PM, Eric Blake wrote:
> I agree... but you know, 8 TS in the Atlc in August is also rare!
> Climatology only goes so far!
> 1898 was a long time ago for an IH in Georgia
> ERic
The data I looked at has the 1898 hurricane as a 2 when it hit SAV (I use the great Unisys site at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/   ). According to the data, the area from north of DAB to the GA/SC border has been affected 10 times with hurricanes since 1851- the last being David in 1979. As Jim mentioned before, Dora hit north FL in 1964 as a 3. A cat 1 hit SAV in 1940, then you go all the way back to 1898, when 2 hurricanes hit GA- the first was actually just barely into SC on Aug 31, but came close enough to affect the GA area. The second was a 90 kt storm that hit on Oct 2. Before that the 1800s had a lot more storms hit this area- ones in 1854 (3), 1871 (2), 1881 (2), 1885 (3), and 1895 (this one skimmed the FL and GA coast as a 3 then a 2).
PS- this analysis only counts storms that come in from the east or south- not ones that crossed FL first from the Gulf.
Matt

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 03:39  Subject: Latest Frances model roulette
Various landfalls with the models:
GFS: GA Coast Sunday night.
NOGAPS: Central FL Saturday morning.
UKMET: Northern FL south of JAX saturday afternoon/evening
GFDL: just south of Myrtle beach, SC Sunday night.
ECMWF: thru the keys/extreme south FL Saturday, then into the Gulf.
Matt

From: "Christopher Landsea"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 04:29  Subject: Re: frances and models
Hi TC folks,
Matt Crowther wrote:
> On Aug 31, 2004, at 1:21 PM, Eric Blake wrote:
> > I agree... but you know, 8 TS in the Atlc in August is also rare!
> > Climatology only goes so far!
> > 1898 was a long time ago for an IH in Georgia
> > ERic
> The data I looked at has the 1898 hurricane as a 2 when it hit SAV (I use the great Unisys site at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/   ).
Looks like they have the old HURDAT info. It was a Category 4, about 938 mb with ~115 kt based upon some great work Al Sandrik (NWS JAX) and Brian Jarvinen did with using SLOSH and matching observed storm surge with the model. (The change officially was made back in July 2003, so i don't know why unisys is so slow in showing the upgrade.)
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_91-00.html#1898_7
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/track_maps/1898.jpg
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mostintensetable.htm
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/index.html
best regards,  chris

From: Michael Scott Schlacter  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 04:29  Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
Any thoughts on how the strength, scope and persistence of the ridge(s) over the Northeast U.S. during the Friday-Saturday time range might be underestimated?
If asked to fill in the synoptic pieces of the domestic "scene" based purely on the paths listed below, one would think a trough was digging into the Eastern Coastal States, let alone the Westward/Southwestward steering currents that look to be present just prior to the weekend.
Based on forecasted ridge trends, if Frances speeds up just a tad, a south of Jacksonville strike becomes much more likely. Lest we forget the ridge lessons of Andrew before we head the ridge lessons of Floyd.
Eye wall replacement cycles, while navigating the idiosyncrasies of the Bahamas (minor terrain and ocean shallowness factors), could be just enough to make her precise course less than smooth. And nautical mile fluctuations here, can translate into State-sized location differentials by the weekend.
Michael

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 04:39  Subject: RE: frances and models
Jacksonville had sustained hurricane force winds with Dora, the only time on record hurricane force winds have been recorded there.
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Leonard  Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 2:24 AM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: frances and models
Dora in 1964 was the closest thing to a major in 20th century up there.
Eric Blake wrote:
> yeah, ukmet right... nogaps left... gfs way right.. gfdl way right... cmc about the same...
> the best two so far in the model world for frances have just come in right (UK/GFS) so I think you have to take that into account..
> however, we have seen this one model runs variation before so I doubt Jack will bite off totally onto this new track yet.
> gee it has been awhile since NE Florida has had a major hurricane!
> Eric

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 04:58  Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
Well said Michael.
To expand just a bit on your comments, given the uncertainty w/r/t
how much/how fast the track will bend more poleward, it is not out
of the range of possibilities for Frances to wind up scraping a large
part, and perhaps even the entire east coast of Florida from PBI
northward. The 340-345 degree orientation of the peninsula could
very well allow for this scenario to pan out.
Tony C.
[snip]

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:02  Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
Allow me to be more explicit. Change "scraping" to "affect with sustained hurricane force winds".
Given the TS and HURCN force wind radii, it is becoming almost a certainty that the entire east coast of Florida will have at least *some* affect
from Frances.
Tony
[snip]

From: "Chris Fogarty [Halifax]"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:14  Subject: RE: frances and models
Really? I almost don't believe Jacksonville Florida has only experienced sustained hurricane force winds once in recorded history!
Chris
-----Original Message-----
From: Konon, Boris  Sent: August 31, 2004 5:40 PM
To: TCDG  Subject: RE: frances and models
Jacksonville had sustained hurricane force winds with Dora, the only
time on record hurricane force winds have been recorded there.
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Leonard  Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 2:24 AM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: frances and models
Dora in 1964 was the closest thing to a major in 20th century up there.
Eric Blake wrote:
> yeah, ukmet right... nogaps left... gfs way right.. gfdl way right... cmc about the same...
> the best two so far in the model world for frances have just come in right (UK/GFS) so I think you have to take that into account..
> however, we have seen this one model runs variation before so I doubt Jack will bite off totally onto this new track yet.
> gee it has been awhile since NE Florida has had a major hurricane!
> Eric
[snip]

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:17  Subject: Re: frances and models
The re-analyzed BT file has the 1898 hurricane at 115 kts just off the GA coast and codes it as a Cat. 4 landfall, which matches with Dunn and Miller who list it as "extreme" (136 mph or higher).
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Crowther"  To: TCDG
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 2:26 PM  Subject: Re: frances and models
> On Aug 31, 2004, at 1:21 PM, Eric Blake wrote:
> > I agree... but you know, 8 TS in the Atlc in August is also rare!
> > Climatology only goes so far!
> > 1898 was a long time ago for an IH in Georgia
> > ERic
> The data I looked at has the 1898 hurricane as a 2 when it hit SAV (I use the great Unisys site at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/   ). According to the data, the area from north of DAB to the GA/SC border has been affected 10 times with hurricanes since 1851- the last being David in 1979. As Jim mentioned before, Dora hit north FL in 1964 as a 3. A cat 1 hit SAV in 1940, then you go all the way back to 1898, when 2 hurricanes hit GA-  the first was actually just barely into SC on Aug 31, but came close enough to affect the GA area. The second was a 90 kt storm that hit on Oct 2. Before that the 1800s had a lot more storms hit this area- ones in 1854 (3), 1871 (2), 1881 (2), 1885 (3), and 1895 (this one skimmed the FL and GA coast as a 3 then a 2).
> PS- this analysis only counts storms that come in from the east or south- not ones that crossed FL first from the Gulf.
> Matt

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:21  Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
Hey Matt,
I like this. Keep sending updates like this.
Gary
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Crowther"  To: TCDG
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 2:39 PM  Subject: Latest Frances model roulette
> Various landfalls with the models:
> GFS: GA Coast Sunday night.
> NOGAPS: Central FL Saturday morning.
> UKMET: Northern FL south of JAX saturday afternoon/evening
> GFDL: just south of Myrtle beach, SC Sunday night.
> ECMWF: thru the keys/extreme south FL Saturday, then into the Gulf.
> Matt

From: Michael Scott Schlacter  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:36  Subject: Inland or not inland?
Anyone know why the latest (5 PM EDT) 96HR NHC Forecast has coordinates located inland Florida (West of I-95 to be precise; see attached graphic), yet does not state "Inland" until the 120HR forecast? Regardless off forecast margins of error, the official forecast coordinates are what they are and either over land or over water, and 29.0N/81.0W is clearly over land.
WTNT41 KNHC 312048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 20.5N 65.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.1N 68.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 73.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 75.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 26.6N 78.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 81.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.1N 82.5W 55 KT...INLAND

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:37  Subject: Frances...WOW!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_vis1km_full.html
A great stadium effect in this vis pic. Latest pressure 938 from a dropsonde.
Matt

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:43  Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
On Aug 31, 2004, at 3:39 PM, Matt Crowther wrote:
> Various landfalls with the models:
> GFS: GA Coast Sunday night.
> NOGAPS: Central FL Saturday morning.
> UKMET: Northern FL south of JAX saturday afternoon/evening
> GFDL: just south of Myrtle beach, SC Sunday night.
> ECMWF: thru the keys/extreme south FL Saturday, then into the Gulf.
> Matt
New ECMWF just in: it has a central FL landfall Saturday, but still moves it west from there to near TPA.

Matt

From: "Tony Cristaldi"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:50  Subject: Re: Inland or not inland?
Inland or not inland?
Hi Michael,
It's simply missing the word "inland". I'm sure you'll see a COR come out here in a bit.
Tony
From: Michael Scott Schlacter  To: TCDG
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2004 5:36 PM  Subject: Inland or not inland?
Anyone know why the latest (5 PM EDT) 96HR NHC Forecast has coordinates located inland Florida (West of I-95 to be precise; see attached graphic), yet does not state "Inland" until the 120HR forecast? Regardless off forecast margins of error, the official forecast coordinates are what they are and either over land or over water, and 29.0N/81.0W is clearly over land.
[snip]

From: "David Roth"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 05:53  Subject: E-mail volume
Gary...I understand the interest in Frances quite well living in one of the many places that could be affected by the storm, our interest in backup up NHC aside. I've heard a rumor that, one way or another, the storm name of Frances will be retired, no matter what its intensity at landfall, whether it hits land or not, even if it were to cause minimal damage. Not that I mind...keep getting questions whether the name is male or female...which is kind of silly in itself.
Couldn't a small group of you just e-mail the model info back and forth? With the constant changes in the model tracks, this has quickly exceeded my mail quota at work, and the e-mail tonnage is growing at least as quick my track errors for Gaston. =) Many of us have already seen the model information elsewhere.
Not trying to spoil the "party,"
DR

From: "Gary Padgett"   To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 06:08  Subject: Re: E-mail volume
Hi David,
> Gary...I understand the interest in Frances quite well living in one of the many places that could be affected by the storm, our interest in backup up NHC aside. I've heard a rumor that, one way or another, the storm name of Frances will be retired, no matter what its intensity at landfall, whether it hits land or not, even if it were to cause minimal damage. Not that I mind...keep getting questions whether the name is male or female...which is kind of silly in itself.
I've always been taught, and observed it to be true, that the English name 'Frances' is feminine, and 'Francis' is masculine. I've never known of a guy named 'Frances', although I think I have heard of a female named 'Francis'.
The WMO Region IV Committee report last year stated that 'Frances' would be retired after 2004 due to a complaint by the rep from France. But, Lixion told me personally in Miami that it would not be retired, since it was a common American name. HOWEVER, unless the models are TOTALLY off-beam, I think now that is a mute point.
A large even Cat. 3 or possibly even Cat. 2 storm striking the SE U.S. anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras would almost certainly cause enough damage to be retired, e.g., Fran, Floyd, Isabel.
[snip]
BR, Gary
P.S.---Should 'Chris' in 2006 be considered male or female? :)

From: "Jeffrey D. Schultz"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 06:35  Subject: Re: E-mail volume
[snip]
Those looking for a quick and dirty model summary can easily bookmark and view the Weather Underground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html
-Jeff

From: Matt Crowther To: Mike Theiss, Gary Padgett, Phil Smith, Tony Cristaldi, Michael V. Padua
Date: 09/01/2004 09:07  Subject: Model update
18Z GFDL- near Beaufort, SC on Sunday AM. ECMWF- Central FL Saturday AM. The ECM is farther north than its previous run, the GFDL farther south. It looks like the models are starting to converge on a northern half of FL to GA scenario.
Matt

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 09:39 Subject: Re: Latest Frances model roulette
This weakness in the ridge/vort lobe that may pull Frances north is likely the reason why the models keep waffling back and forth...the GFS has been doing so ever since the storm was at 350ish hours in the future, a time where it's unfair/unwise to look at its output.
Welcome to the world of Medium Range, where all you can depend upon is the longwave pattern, and the vorts can't be timed...or trusted.
Lately, it seems that a number of cyclones have had major features to affect their motion (like deep troughs/warm core ridges/a solid TUTT), so there was some certainty even out 3-5 days. Not with Frances.
I'll check the teleconnections maps we have when I go to work tomorrow. I remember us mentioning at the end of last week (at work...don't think we put that in the EPD) that the models were missing a trough that should be developing somewhere in the Western Atlantic considering the longwave pattern expected across North America, right about where the models are waffling on the vort lobe embedded in the large ridge. It's unusual to get a large, solid ridge that wide across the Atlantic/eastern North America...the longwave pattern usually demands a break, somewhere.
Someone at work "pinned" me down to a landfall location yesterday...I said the Carolinas, considering how this season has gone so far and the expected stronger weakness that I was thinking would materialize in future model runs...this expected deeper solution hasn't materialized yet. I've erred to the east on three TCs this year, as well as several last year...and haven't erred west since Claudette and Erika last season. If that doesn't send Frances to Florida, nothing will.
Working the phones for the relatives in Florida, already...the media in FL must be having a field day so soon after Charley (two weeks already).
DR

From: "Konon, Boris"  To: "TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 11:36  Subject: RE: E-mail volume
>> The WMO Region IV Committee report last year stated that 'Frances' would be retired after 2004 due to a complaint by the rep from France.
>> But, Lixion told me personally in Miami that it would not be retired, since it was a common American name.
Didn't something similar happen with Klaus in 1990? It was a minimal hurricane that never impacted any land significantly if I remember correctly, but I read somewhere that name was retired at the request of the German gov't, so "Klaus" shows up on the official retired ATL hurricane named list.
Boris

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/01/2004 14:16  Subject: Awsome images of Frances
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/040831/040831_g12_vis_anim.html
Matt

From: Matt Crowther  To: Michael V. Padua, Gary Padgett, Phil Smith, Tony Cristaldi, Mike Theiss  Cc: Jim Leonard
Date: 09/01/2004 14:50  Subject: Model update
GFDL: Beaufort, SC Sun Eve.
GFS: Central FL Sun Midday
SEF: GA coast Sun PM
UKMET: Cape Canaveral Sat midday
ECMWF: Central FL Sat AM (then into the Gulf)
JMA: Thru the Keys Sat, then the Gulf
NOGAPS: southern part of Central FL sat AM.
So it seems the models are still spilt into two camps (if you ignore the JMA)
GA/SC Sunday, or central FL Saturday. The majority rules method says Central FL.. and this is the scenario TPC is going with--we shall see.
Matt

From: "Stormplanet"  To: "Aussie Weather"
Date: 09/01/2004 17:39  Subject: aus-wx: Hurricane Frances
In case anyone missed it, here's two Modis Terra images of Hurricane Frances, these images are amazing and perfect desktop wallpaper!!
http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov/shownh.php3?img_id=12373 , http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov/shownh.php3?img_id=12372
Cheers
David Simpson [Australia]

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 01:48  Subject: Frances track
This discussion just issued by [HPC] is a good summary of the various model differences:
IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALL EYES ARE ON FRANCES. BOTH THE ETA AND
THE GFS SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP SUBTROP RIDGE THAT MOVES NWD
FROM THE 29TH TO THE 31ST PARALLEL WITH TIME. THE GFS PRODUCES
A BREAK IN THIS RIDGE...APPARENTLY DUE TO THE TROF MOVG
OFFSHORE NEW ENG BY DAYS 3-4 BUT AT THAT POINT THE TROF AXIS
HAS ALREADY EJECTED EWD. A SECOND RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST
BY DAY 4...WHICH COULD CAUSE YET ANOTHER STAIRSTEP IN ITS
TRACK. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...AND IS ALREADY
INCORRECT ON ITS MOTION...TOO FAR NW...AS THE STORM HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ABOUT THE CURRENT TRACK SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE CAN
IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW TWO PSBL TRACKS...ONE UP THE COAST OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER ACRS CNTRL FL INTO THE NERN GULF
OF MEX. THE ETA/00Z ECMWF MEAN/MM5/NOGAPS BRING THE STORM
THRU SRN AND CNTRL FL INTO THE GULF OF MEX. THERE ARE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ALSO TAKE IT ALMOST STRAIGHT WEST
THRU THE FL STRAITS THRU THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. ABOUT THE
ONLY TRACKS THAT THE STORM IS NOT FAVORED TO GO POINT SLY OR
ELY. IT IS LIKELY THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SFC
RIDGING IN THE EAST BEYOND 36 HRS...W/THE ETA AT LEAST 4 HPA
STRONGER W/THE HIGH...ONE OF THE GFS MOST COMMON ERRORS. IT
IS ALSO PSBL THAT THE GFS IS TOO LARGE WITH THE SIZE OF
FRANCES...DOUBLING ITS SIZE AT H5 BY 72 HRS...WHICH COULD BE
CREATING SOME OF THE BREAK...AND COULD ALSO BE IN ERROR.
WOULD FAVOR A TRACK TWDS THE MIDDLE ROAD...NEAR THE TPC
TRACK...CLIMATOLOGY SEEMS TO FAVOR THIS SOLN AS WELL.
I cannot say I disagree with this analysis-
Matt

From: Fu Dickson To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 03:06  Subject: Kennedy Space Center braces for Hurricane Frances
Hi all,
It looks the Space Port might have a direct hit.
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/hurricane/040901amupdate.html , http://www.spaceflightnow.com/hurricane/status.html
With Hurricane Frances threatening Florida's east coast, the Kennedy Space Center will shut down Thursday to give workers a chance to prepare for the approaching storm.
[snip]
Best Regards,  Dickson Fu,  Hong Kong

From: Matt Crowther To: Mike Theiss, Gary Padgett, Phil Smith, Tony Cristaldi, Michael V. Padua Cc: Jim Leonard
Date: 09/02/2004 03:30  Subject: Model update
New NOGAPS and UKMET similar to the TPC track (NOGAPS near Vero Beach, UKMET near Cocoa Beach), but they bring it back out over the NE Gulf instead of keeping it inland as TPC does. GFDL still a right outlier, with a GA/SC landfall Sunday night.
Matt

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: "TCDG"
Date: 09/02/2004 05:47  Subject: NTC for August
I did a quick calculation for the Atlantic NTC for the month of August:
NS - 8    NSD - 32.50
H  - 4    HD - 15.00
IH - 3    IHD - 5.25
NTC = 84%
The average NTC for August is about 24%, so this August has been about 3.5 times more active than normal.

From: Dosidicus  To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 11:26  Subject: Two IH hitting FL?
Dear all:
I can't find any season since 1964 in which two IH have hit Florida in the same season. However, in 1964 neither hurricane was a cat four at landfall, and they were farther apart in time. If Frances is a cat four at landfall, Florida will have taken an incredibly rare double-blow...that alone makes one think that it might not be a major storm at landfall. But we'll see, for better or worse.
-John

From: "Eric Blake"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 11:35  Subject: RE: Two IH hitting FL?
1950 was the last

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 13:16  Subject: Re: Two IH hitting FL?
None of the 1964 Florida hurricanes are considered Cat 3's at landfall. They're all coded as Cat 2's in the final line for each storm in the BT file. Cleo's and Dora's winds are clearly below 100 kts at landfall, and I strongly suspect the 100+ kt winds in Isbell will be lowered in the re-analysis.
[snip]

From: Jim Leonard To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 13:29  Subject: Re: Two IH hitting FL?
The last time with 2 IH as stated before was 1950, hurricane Easy at Cedar Key in early September and hurricane King, mid-October over Miami. I happened to be in that one but I was only 8 months old at the time, maybe thats where it all started. Both storms had pressures in the lower 950's at landfall, King was a small compact hurricane.
Jim
[snip]
Jim Leonard - http://www.cyclonejim.com - Islamorada, FL

From: "Chris Fogarty [Halifax]" To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 13:52  Subject: Frances and synoptic pattern impact
For what it's worth, the GFS model is showing Frances going up along the eastern seaboard of the US almost like Floyd99. I don't believe it though ... and the main difference between the synoptic pattern around Frances versus other recurving storms is that the subtropical anticyclone is stronger than climatology and extends back into the eastern US. Also, weather will be cooler than normal over eastern Canada. In the past, storms have recurved here when our weather prior to the TC was warm and humid, but that setup is not going to happen this time. Based on these synoptic scale indicators, I honestly do believe this one will hit Florida. Bad situation for them. I also notice that storms tend to attain cat-4 or 5 status when the subtropical anticyclone is very strong and extends well into the NA continent.
Chris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: "TCDG" [Inserted by Editor: Click on thumbnail at right to see model runs being discussed]
Date: 09/02/2004 14:43  Subject: 02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
Various NHC model runs for Frances.
<<hurmodels.gif>>
Then we have two extremes...the GFS and the Global GEM at 120 hr. One just off the South Carolina coast and the other over New Orleans!
As Chris just mentioned, the GFS scenario doesn't seem likely.
06z TPC advisory has Frances up to 125 knots. Last GOES-12 image (0401z) before it went into eclipse showed a solid, symmetric convection ring around the eye. Looks like Frances recently finished another eyewall replacement cycle.
Boris

From: "Tony Cristaldi" To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 16:05 Subject: Re: 02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
Guys, I just saw the last VORTEX ,and significant cooling of tops on the first couple IR images after the eclipse - all I can say is "Yikes"!
Wish us luck here.
b/r  Tony C.  NWS Melbourne FL

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 09/02/2004 17:01 Subject: Re: 02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Cristaldi Sent: Sep 2, 2004 4:05 AM
To: TCDG Subject: Re: 02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
Guys, I just saw the last VORTEX ,and significant cooling of tops on the first couple IR images after the eclipse - all I can say is "Yikes"!
**********************
Yikes indeed- I agree with the new TPC forecast of a southward shift in the track- the 06Z eta is back on message after the odd northward shift with the 00Z run- I think that we can pretty safely discard the GFS/GFDL solutions...it will be interesting to see if the 06Z or 12 Z runs of these models change to the other models consensus or not.
Matt

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 00:50 Subject: Re: 02/00z Model Forecasts for Frances
Awfully quiet on here.....
The GFS/GFDL have come around as I thought they might- so FL is in trouble. The storm has weakened slightly again, due to another eyewall replacement, but that may be bad news as well, as it may go through a stronger phase before or during landfall, but that is impossible to tell. The outflow is as good as it gets, so I see no reason to doubt it will maintain this intensity at least before hitting.
The only other question is the exact landfall point- it seem like the FLL- VRB corridor is the place in general, then TPC and the new GFS take it inland the rest of the way. However, the eta, which has actually been handling the storm pretty well so far, takes it back over the Gulf- and the old UKMET and NOGAPS had similar paths. So the storm at least has a shot to restrengthen and make a second landfall along the Gulf coast. So the bottom line is that some of the uncertainty with Frances is over, it still may have a few surprises in store.
Matt

From: Cheryl Chang To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 01:52 Subject: Greetings from Merritt Island, FL....until tonight
Hi all:
I'm new to the list - just in time for Frances. I live in Merritt Island, FL, and we're in a mandatory evacuation starting this afternoon. I plan to evacuate only to Rockledge at this point, wait things out, and attempt to see as much as I can while remaining relatively safe. As you can imagine, things are tense down here!
Gulp - wish us luck......
Cheryl Chang, Merritt Island, FL

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 02:00 Subject: Frances weakening a tad
[snip]
Pressure continues to rise (now 949) as a major eyewall replacement is
still happening, but the cloud tops are still cold all around the
system, the outflow is excellent, so I think we should at least steady
off here soon and maybe deepen again. But sometimes these things can be
fickle, so maybe it will not be as strong as originally feared at
landfall. Anything is possible with this puppy....
Matt

From: Roger Edson  To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 20:26  Subject: Anyone really think Frances will reintensify again?
Ok, all of you forecasters out there, what do you think is going to happen?
Here is all of that 'warm' water of the GulfStream that is 'supposed' to help....but I believe shear 'conquers all'...
To me, the MI is giving Frances little help... There is no longer any good return on the south side as shown in the 85Ghz, and even the 37 shows unimpressive structure on the south side.
So, what if this is a 'dud'? How will all of those millions of evacuees react?
Anyway, food for thought. Up until this latest series of forecast (reintensifying the hurricane inspite of its return to Cat 2 status), I think the NHC has done the best that they could with the situation...
Roger

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 20:47  Subject: Re: Anyone really think Frances will reintensify again?
FWIW, I really don't think Frances will recover Cat. 4 status.
However, the 100-mph sustained wind from Eleuthera warrants keeping Frances at Cat. 3 status until it should weaken further.
Given that the true MSW are likely occurring in a very small area, who can say that the anemometer actually experienced them? That's only 11 mph under Cat. 3 levels.
> So, what if this is a 'dud'? How will all of those millions of evacuees react?
Oh, many will grumble and sputter. They should look over at Port Charlotte and be very thankful that they were spared a Cat. 4 hurricane. But many will criticize NHC that their Labor Day weekend was spoiled by boarding up and leaving for a 'mere' Cat. 2 hurricane. Hopefully for such people, a sinkhole will open up and swallow their homes.
> Anyway, food for thought. Up until this latest series of forecast (reintensifying the hurricane inspite of  its return to Cat 2 status), I think the NHC has done the best that they could with the situation...
I think the possibility of reintensification has to be kept before the public until it become more or less certain that it won't happen. Especially coming on the heels of all the criticism of the failure to forecast Charley's RI episode.
RE Tropical Storm Ivan---the forecast track keeps it south of 15N all the way from 30W to 60W. If it verifies, that will be pretty remarkable. Atlantic
TCs very rarely travel across 2000 miles of ocean remaining at such low latitudes.

From: Matt Crowther  To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 21:10  Subject: Frances
Looks less likely this storm will be a major of an impact as thought yesterday- unexpected shear is keeping the outflow restricted on the west side of the storm, and this is helping keep the eye from re-forming. Therefore the pressure continues to slowly rise. If this shear does not lessen soon, the chance for a comeback is lessened. In fact, it now seems possible that the storm will not even be a major hurricane at landfall. Of course, it is still over warm h20, the landfall looks like it will be delayed until tomorrow evening or night, so it may still have another surprise up its sleeve, But for now, it looks like the biggest impact (not inconsiderable) from Frances when all is said and done, will be flooding. Remind you of another storm?
Floyd scared the **&^% out of everybody, caused massive evacuation, weakened, but still caused a lot of damage from flooding.
Matt

From: Jim Leonard  To: Typhoon Gang
Date: 09/03/2004 22:20  Subject: Hurricane Frances.
Well Jose Garcia here from Puerto Rico and myself are here waiting patiently for this storm to make its move. Right now we're looking at maybe the Ft. Pierce area as it looks now. The hurricane at the moment looks quite un-impressive but I think it should become better organized by this evening. The western semicircle has improved some this morning although so far the convection is somewhat shallow so far.
Jose is supposed to get back to Puerto Rico Monday just in time for hurricane Ivan.
Jim

From: "Gary Padgett"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 22:26  Subject: Re: Frances
> so it may still have another surprise up its sleeve, But for now, it looks like the biggest impact (not inconsiderable) from Frances when all is said and done, will be flooding. Remind you of another storm?
> Floyd scared the **&^% out of everybody, caused massive evacuation, weakened, but still caused a lot of damage from flooding.
I think another factor for assessing the overall impact of a hurricane which is often overlooked is the size, especially the diameter of the zone of hurricane-force winds. HU Opal in our area is a great testimony to the widespread and sometimes severe damage which can result when you have even 75-80 kt winds covering a wide area. Hundreds of thousands of trees were downed, many of them falling on houses and mobile homes.
Based on the forecast/advisory wind radii, Charley's hurricane-force swath was 40 nm at landfall--Frances' hurricane winds currently cover an area 150 nm across. Sustained hurricane force winds in a heavily populated area with lots of trees are going to cause much damage, even if not of the degree of destruction caused by Charley and Andrew.

From: "Michael V. Padua"   To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 22:30  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances.
Hi Jim & Jose,
Give my regards to Jose!!! Hi there pal! That's why I never seen you log-in coz you flew down there! Take care and IVAN is waiting for you in PR. hehehe..
Have a nice chase!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"
Naga City , Philippines
[snip]
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Leonard"  To: "Typhoon Gang"
Sent: Friday, September 03, 2004 10:20 PM  Subject: Hurricane Frances.
> Well Jose Garcia here from Puerto Rico and myself are here waiting patiently for this storm to make its move. Right now we're looking at maybe the Ft. Pierce area as it looks now. The hurricane at the moment looks quite un-impressive but I think it should become better organized by this evening. The western semicircle has improved some this morning although so far the convection is somewhat shallow so far.
> Jose is supposed to get back to Puerto Rico Monday just in time for hurricane Ivan.
> Jim

From: Jim Leonard   To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 22:42   Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances.
Michael
Thanks, we'll let you know what we get...
Jim and Jose
Michael V. Padua wrote:
>Hi Jim & Jose,
>Give my regards to Jose!!! Hi there pal! That's why I never seen you log-in coz you flew down there! Take care and IVAN is waiting for you in PR. hehehe..
>Have a nice chase!
>Michael =;-)
>"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Chris Fogarty [Halifax]"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 22:58  Subject: RE: Frances
Excellent point Gary.
Chris
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Padgett  Sent: September 3, 2004 11:27 AM
To: TCDG  Subject: Re: Frances
> so it may still have another surprise up its sleeve, But for now, it looks like the biggest impact (not inconsiderable) from Frances when all is said and done, will be flooding. Remind you of another storm?
> Floyd scared the **&^% out of everybody, caused massive evacuation, weakened, but still caused a lot of damage from flooding.
I think another factor for assessing the overall impact of a hurricane which is often overlooked is the size, especially the diameter of the zone of hurricane-force winds. HU Opal in our area is a great testimony to the widespread and sometimes severe damage which can result when you have even 75-80 kt winds covering a wide area. Hundreds of thousands of trees were downed, many of them falling on houses and mobile homes.
Based on the forecast/advisory wind radii, Charley's hurricane-force swath was 40 nm at landfall--Frances' hurricane winds currently cover an area 150 nm across. Sustained hurricane force winds in a heavily populated area with lots of trees are going to cause much damage, even if not of the degree of destruction caused by Charley and Andrew.

From: "Michael P. Pitt"   To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 23:24  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances.
Howdy yall,
Looks like Frances may want to pay a visit to me up in Jacksonville.
Hurricane Watch is now in effect for my area (Fernadina to Flager Bch) and the track seems lifting further N & W.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael V. Padua"  To: TCDG
Sent: Friday, September 03, 2004 10:30 AM  Subject: Re: Hurricane Frances.
> Hi Jim & Jose,
> Give my regards to Jose!!! Hi there pal! That's why I never seen you log-in coz you flew down there! Take care and IVAN is waiting for you in PR. hehehe..
> Have a nice chase!
> Michael =;-)
> "Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Heming, Julian"   To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 09/03/2004 23:46  Subject: Re: Frances
Just had first sight of the latest UKMET run and it slows Frances to a canter in the next day with landfall not until about 06Z on Sunday.
Interesting to see whether other models follow suit or whether this is just an 'outlier'.
If this does happen might there be more time for the shear to relax and re-intensification to occur or might the issue of upwelling of cooler water then come into play with such a slow-moving system?
Julian

From: "David Roth"  To: TCDG
Date: 09/03/2004 23:57  Subject: Re: Frances
If it slows down over the Gulf Stream, I doubt upwelling will be too much of a factor. After all, it is replenished with warmer water to the south at about 4 kts and the Gulf Stream's warm water is deeper than the surrounding waters. It wouldn't weaken as much as it might over the Bahama Bank, had it stalled there.
The parents evacuate from Palm Beach Gardens to the south (Grandma's place in Deerfield) within the next couple hours. My aunt and cousin had to evacuate yesterday, since their places were within blocks of the Atlantic in Hollywood.
DR

From: "Konon, Boris"   To: TCDG
Date: 09/04/2004 01:40  Subject: RE: Frances
Regardless of how bad Frances affects FL, I think the fact the it passed through the Bahamas as a Cat 3/4 and severely impacted the islands would likely justify the name being retired at the end of the season.
Boris
-----Original Message-----
From: Matt Crowther  Sent: Friday, September 03, 2004 9:10 AM
To: TCDG   Subject: Frances
Looks less likely this storm will be a major of an impact as thought yesterday- unexpected shear is keeping the outflow restricted on the west side of the storm, and this is helping keep the eye from re-forming. Therefore the pressure continues to slowly rise. If this shear does not lessen soon, the chance for a comeback is lessened. In fact, it now seems possible that the storm will not even be a major hurricane at landfall. Of course, it is still over warm h20, the landfall looks like it will be delayed until tomorrow evening or night, so it may still have another surprise up its sleeve, But for now, it looks like the biggest impact (not inconsiderable) from Frances when all is said and done, will be flooding. Remind you of another storm?
Floyd scared the