Typhoon Dujuan which made a direct hit on Hong Kong on 2nd September 2003.

Current details for Tropical Cyclones around the world will be shown on the next line:

Typhoon Signal History:

Typhoon Signal Number One (Stand By) was hoisted at 22:15 HKT on 1st September 2003.
Typhoon Signal Number Three (Strong Winds) was hoisted at 10:40 HKT on 2nd September 2003 to replace Signal One.
Typhoon Signal Number Eight (North West Gale or Storm Winds) was hoisted at 14:20 HKT on 2nd September 2003 to replace Signal Three.
Typhoon Signal Number Nine (Increasing Gale or Storm Winds) was hoisted at 20:10 HKT on 2nd September 2003 to replace Signal Eight.
Typhoon Signal Number Eight (South West Gale or Storm Winds) was hoisted at 22:10 HKT on 2nd September 2003 to replace Signal Nine.
Typhoon Signal Number Three (Strong Winds) was hoisted at 01:30 HKT on 3rd September 2003 to replace Signal Eight.
All Typhoon Signals were lowered at 03:20 HKT on 3rd September 2003.

Comments:

By Saturday 30th August 2003, JTWC was predicting a direct hit on Hong Kong for 18:00 on Wednesday 3rd September 2003.

E-mail Reports:

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2003 20:30:14 +0800
Subject: The approach of Typhoon DUJUAN

[snip]
If you take a look at
https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1403.gif at present(2030 HKT,
1230Z), the JTWC are predicting in warning number 9 that Typhoon Dujuan
will pass within 10 nautical miles (11.5 US miles, 18.5 km) of Hong Kong
at 18:00 (6pm) HKT on this coming Wednesday packing winds of 90 knots
(103 US miles per hour, 167 km/h) gusting to 110 knots (127 US mph, 204
km/h).
If this were to be an accurate forecast, the HKO would need to hoist
Typhoon Signal Number 10 for 10 hours and have Signal 8 or higher up for
over 25 hours from about 05:30 on Wednesday until about 06:45 on
Thursday.
Of course anything can happen in the meantime, but it will be
interesting to see how accurate or otherwise the JTWC really is.
It might affect our school Divisional meetings planned for that evening,
but then it might also cross Taiwan into Fujian Province or swing down
hundreds of miles away on its way to Vietnam.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Mon, 01 Sep 2003 06:38:59 +0800
Subject: Typhoon DUJUAN still targeting HK

[snip]
After a few warnings placing the track of Dujuan further North, JTWC
warning No 15 comes back to a direct hit on HK timed for 0218Z or 02:00
am on Wednesday 3rd September HKT when the storm is forecast to be 18 NM
(21 US miles, 33 km) North of HK (just North of our place near Tai Po)
with winds of 75 knots (86 US mph, 139 km/h) gusting to 90 knots (104 US
mph, 167 km/h).  
At the same time, the forecast from JMA puts the storm about 111 km
South of HK with the same wind speeds.  
At the same time PAGASA places the storm a long way East of HK but still
headed directly for us.  They are obviously not anticipating the
acceleration of the storm which is forecast by the other agencies.
HKO has not yet issued their first forecast as the storm is still
outside of the HKO AOR, but I expect them to start at about 11:00 today
HKT.  The current 5-day weather forecast issued by HKO is consistent
with the storm passing South of HK during the night/early morning of
2nd/3rd September.
I feel that the local public are much more aware of the approach of this
storm than of most previous ones for two reasons: firstly, the HKO has
been mentioning its name and position in their regular weather forecasts
for two days already; secondly, there has been a great deal of publicity
on the news about the need to complete the crash site investigations of
last week's helicopter crash and remove all of the wreckage before the
storm "arrives on Tuesday night".
My own current prediction of HK Typhoon Signals based on JTWCs forecast
No 15 is Signal 3 hoisted sometime before 14:00 (2pm) HKT tomorrow,
Signal 8 hoisted between 14:00 and 17:00, possibly Signal 10 hoisted for
a few hours around 00:00 to about 04:00 on the 3rd September, Signal 8
replaced by signal 3 about 10:00 Wednesday, all-clear by 17:00 Wednesday.
The disappointing part about the current forecast is that I should be
fast asleep when the eye of the storm passes over my home!
Actually, I am inclined to think the storm may veer further South and
miss a direct hit on us.  But you never know.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Mon, 01 Sep 2003 22:35:59 +0800
Subject: The calm before the storm

Hi Carl,
please forward this to the Cyclones Group as I am still stuck behind the
Anti-spam firewall and can't group send.
Today has been the calm before the storm here in Hong Kong.  It has been
utterly calm and still and sultry and the air was so heavy with
pollution and haze that the street lights came on at about 18:00 local
time, well before sunset even though there was not a cloud in the sky.  
The sun was a dim reddish disk that reminded one of a total lunar
eclipse even when it was still high in the sky.
As I type this at around 22:00, JTWC are predicting in their warning No.
17, that Typhoon Dujuan will be 17 NM (20 miles, 31 km) South of here in
just 28 hours time with winds of 85 knots (98 mph, 157 km/h) and gusts
to 105 knots (121 mph, 194 km/h).
JMA forecasts it to get here earlier in about 23 hours.
PAGASA think it will get here later, after 08:00 on Wednesday.
If JTWC are correct, and they have been pretty consistent to date, my
predictions of Typhoon Signals in Hong Kong are now Signal 1 at 22:15
tonight [just hoisted now as I was typing in the time], Signal 3 at
around 11:00 on Tuesday, Signal 8 at 17:00, Signal 9 at around 19:30,
Signal 10 at around 22:15, 10 down to 8 at around 05:45 on Wednesday, 8
down to 3 at around 09:00  and all-clear at around 12:00 on Wednesday,
all HKT.  A very slight variation in either direction or speed will of
course make nonsense of these predictions, but it's fun to have a go.
If this storm comes as close and as strong as predicted we may well lose
all communications here, so I don't really know when I shall be able to
put out reports if that should happen.
I shall try to keep everybody posted.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2003 09:39:29 +0800
Subject: Here comes Dujuan

This morning it was hazy and fine, but now the whole sky is covered with
fine wisps of very high cirrus - a sure sign that a typhoon is
approaching.  Out of doors, there is a breeze from the NNW making the
branches of the trees dance about and providing welcome relief from the
windless stickiness of yesterday's high humidity.
There is much discussion on the buses and trains and in the streets that
this storm is "The Big One".  There is much criticism of the Observatory
for not hoisting higher signals earlier than this.
Looking out the window at 09:30, the palm trees are thrashing about
everywhere so there is a lot more wind than there was earlier.
A quick snapshot of the various AWS shows that the wind varies greatly
from place to place within Hong Kong:
Date/Time: 2/9/2003 09:00
Station        Temp RH   Max/Min  Dir/Speed Barometer HI
               (C)  (%)    (C)      (km/h)   (hPa)     (C)
----------------------------------------------------------
HK Observatory 28.6  71 28.7/27.8 ---/-----  999.4    32.0
King's Park    29.0  60 ----/---- WSW/  8.6  999.1     31.0
Wong Chuk Hang 29.4  67 29.4/27.8 VRB/  9.0 ------    33.0
Ta Kwu Ling    28.7  71 28.7/25.2 N  /  7.0  999.9     32.3
Lau Fau Shan   28.1  75 28.3/27.6 NW / 21.0 1000.1    31.6
Tai Po         28.8  70 29.1/27.7 ---/-----  999.4    32.3
Sha Tin        29.2  66 29.6/27.8 N  / 11.0  999.6    32.4
Tuen Mun       29.6  72 29.7/28.2 NNW/  9.0 ------     34.5
Tseung Kwan O  29.4  67 29.4/26.8 VRB/  8.0 ------    33.0
Sai Kung       30.4  62 30.6/28.8 NW / 23.0 ------     34.1
Cheung Chau    27.8  74 27.8/26.7 NNW/ 39.0  999.0  
Chek Lap Kok   29.3  68 29.4/28.4 NNW/ 44.0 1000.0    33.0
Tsing Yi       28.4  72 28.4/26.9 VRB/  6.0 ------     31.8
Shek Kong      29.0  84 29.1/26.3 W  / 10.0 1000.0     35.6
Ngong Ping     24.3 --- 26.5/23.8 ---/----- ------  
The Peak       26.1 --- 26.1/24.1 ---/----- ------   
The Big question doing the rounds here at the moment is: when will the
schools be closed down?  During Typhoon Hagupit, it was the closing of
schools in the middle of the school day (which precipitated a total
failure of the communications infrastucture and caused total chaos as
everybody fled home) that resulted in the only fatality from that storm.
More later as the storm really begins to affect us.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2003 12:34:26 +0800
Subject: Dujuan to arrive with 105 knots!

Cyclones Group:  [snip] According to JTWC warning Number
20, Typhoon Dujuan will hit Hong Kong at 23:00 (11pm) today packing
winds of 105 knots (121 mph, 195 km/h) with gusts to 130 knots (150 mph,
241 km/h).  At that time the storm will be both slowing down and
weakening so it is almost impossible to tell when signals will be
hoisted. The JTWC wind radii would suggest that Signal eight should
already be hoisted.  Looking out the window and allowing for a
comparison between many predictions about this storm, I think the Signal
Three will be replaced by Signal Eight sometime between 14:00 and
16:00.  SIgnal Nine should be hoisted about 19:00 to 20:00, Signal Ten
at about 21:30.  Signal Ten should be replaced by Signal Eight around
01:00 tomorrow and Signal Eight replaced by Signal Three about 06:00
tomorrow.  The all-clear will probably be given by 10:00 or 11:00
tomorrow.  These estimations may be way out.  Please check the
observatory from time to time at
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm for details.
The school is not waiting for Signal Eight, but is calling parents to
come in and pick up their kids now.  Chaos reigns as some school buses
can run and others cannot.  Parents are turning up to pick up their kids
who must all be matched with the correct parent.  All semblance of
normal school ahs ceased.
Virtually all local weather related sites on the Internet are now down
as the servers are swamped.  The page I have made for this storm,
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/dujuan.htm has taken more than 1500 hits in the
past few hours and nobody knows it is there!

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2003 22:39:32 +0800
Subject: Progress Report on Dujuan

[snip]
As I type, Dujuan is 24 km away and Typhoon Signal Nine (Increasing Gail
and Storm Force Winds) is hoisted.  Here is a snapshot of conditions at
the HK AWS stations a while ago:

Date/Time: 2/9/2003 21:10
Station        Temp RH   Max/Min  Dir/Speed Barometer HI
               (C)  (%)    (C)      (km/h)   (hPa)     (C)
----------------------------------------------------------
HK Observatory 24.2  94 29.9/24.2 ---/-----  981.6  
King's Park    24.0  97 ----/---- WSW/ 41.0  981.1  
Wong Chuk Hang 24.7  92 30.0/24.7 WNW/ 22.0 ------  
Ta Kwu Ling    23.4  96 30.2/23.2 WNW/ 39.0  972.6  
Lau Fau Shan   24.0  99 29.7/24.0 WNW/109.0  977.3  
Tai Po         23.6  97 29.8/23.6 ---/-----  976.1  
Sha Tin        23.9  92 30.6/23.9 SW / 35.0  979.2  
Tuen Mun       23.6 100 30.8/23.5 WNW/ 51.0 ------   
Tseung Kwan O  24.4  92 30.2/24.2 SSW/ 26.0 ------  
Sai Kung       25.0  89 30.8/24.7 SW / 33.0 ------   
Cheung Chau    23.3  93 28.4/23.2 WNW/ 89.0  983.1  
Chek Lap Kok   24.8  93 30.6/24.7 WNW/ 83.0  983.1  
Tsing Yi       23.0  99 29.2/23.0 WNW/ 52.0 ------   
Shek Kong      23.8 100 30.3/23.8 W  / 45.0  978.7   
Ngong Ping     22.2 --- 26.5/22.0 ---/----- ------  
The Peak       21.7 --- 26.1/21.6 ---/----- ------   

Note that the wind speeds recorded are averaged over ten minutes.
Here on the 17th floor I can hear the clash and clang of debris hitting
the metal cage around our balcony.  The wind is howling noisily and the
rain is leaking into our flat through every crevice (too busy mopping up
to e-mail!).  Half an hour ago I heard a tremendous crashing sound which
I assume was the collapse of some of the scaffolding from one of the
adjacent buildings.  The seven nearest adjacent buildings are all
completely clad in thirty stories of bamboo scaffolding.
Most weather-related sites in Hong Kong are almost unreachable because
of overloaded servers, so getting information is difficult.
Earlier today I went to Sunshine City to do some work there and upon
arrival there I walked across a very elevated and exposed podium to the
tower I had to work in and noticed that there was a little bit of gusty
wind snatching at the umbrella, but it wasn't too bad.  An hour later at
about 17:00 local time when I came out onto the podium again, the use of
an umbrella was unthinkable and I had to hold the handrail, while
walking at all was a decidedly difficult exercise because of the wind
and the rain, which was fortunately light, was falling horizontally.
Now the wind has died and then risen again from the opposite side the
flat here, so I assume Dujuan has passed by to our North
Here is another capture from the AWS stations which indicates a dropping
off while the eye passes nearby:

Date/Time: 2/9/2003 22:10
Station        Temp RH   Max/Min  Dir/Speed Barometer HI
               (C)  (%)    (C)      (km/h)   (hPa)     (C)
----------------------------------------------------------
HK Observatory 24.6  93 29.9/24.2 ---/-----  986.3  
King's Park    24.1  96 ----/---- S  / 24.8  986.3   
Wong Chuk Hang 24.6  94 30.0/24.5 N  / 16.0 ------  
Ta Kwu Ling    24.5  93 30.2/23.2 ESE/ 30.0  983.8  
Lau Fau Shan   23.9 100 29.7/23.7 SE / 30.0  978.9  
Tai Po         24.7  97 29.8/23.6 ---/-----  984.5  
Sha Tin        24.9  87 30.6/23.8 SSW/ 28.0  985.7  
Tuen Mun       23.8 100 30.8/23.4 VRB/ 27.0 ------   
Tseung Kwan O  24.7  90 30.2/24.2 S  / 21.0 ------  
Sai Kung       25.3  92 30.8/24.7 SSE/ 46.0 ------   
Cheung Chau    23.6  95 28.4/23.2 WSW/ 65.0  985.6  
Chek Lap Kok   24.8  95 30.6/24.4 W  / 76.0  983.0  
Tsing Yi       23.4  99 29.2/23.0 S  / 32.0 ------   
Shek Kong      24.9 100 30.3/23.8 SSE/ 19.0  982.2   
Ngong Ping     22.4 --- 26.5/22.0 ---/----- ------  
The Peak       22.1 --- 26.1/21.6 ---/----- ------   

The Number Nine Typhoon Signal has just been lowered and replaced by
Typhoon Signal Number Eight (South West Gales or Storm Winds).
I assume the winds now will just gradually abate as Dujuan moves away to
the North West, so I shall call it a night now and catch some sleep.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Wed, 03 Sep 2003 15:14:33 +0800
Subject: Dujuan spares HK

Woke up this morning to find Typhoon Dujuan well and truly gone.  There
were still a few puffs of wind and some rain, but nothing really to
speak of.  The river in front of our place was back to its normal mill-
pond appearance.
The Hong Kong Observatory had replaced Typhoon Signal Eight (Gale or
Storm Force Winds) with Typhoon Signal Number Three (Strong Wind) at
01:30 this morning and then all signals had been lowered at 03:20.
Looking for the source of a tremendous crashing noise which I had heard
last night, I found only a small amount of scaffolding and a large
number of new plastic sewage pipes which had fallen from the building
next to mine which was under renovation.  Not half as spectacular by
morning light as it had sounded the night before!
There was plenty of small debris scattered everywhere and a lot of the
palm trees had lost many of their branches.
Several roads were still closed this morning by some of the 85 trees
which were uprooted.  There were two fairly minor landslides and five
cases of flooding.
A total of 22 people were slightly injured during the typhoon; 14 men
and eight women.  Three of these were still hospitalised in a stable
condition today.  Four fishermen are missing and feared drowned after a
search failed to find their vessel which made distress calls at the
height of the typhoon.
At the airport 151 flights were cancelled while 115 were delayed
stranding about 2,000 people.
All in all, Dujuan turned out to be somewhat of a non-event compared
with some of the dire predictions I heard yesterday.  Because the storm
passed to our North and lost a lot of its power due to interaction with
the mountains, the story ended very differently to what would have
happened had it been 50 km to the South of its final track.  As it was,
Hurricane-force winds lasted for only about ten minutes at each of the
stations which recorded them.
Now life in Hong Kong returns to normal ... until the next typhoon
arrives.

Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith"
To: [snip]
Date: Fri, 05 Sep 2003 14:32:10 +0800
Subject: Typhoon Dujuan - more realistic assessment of damage.

Well, everyone, I was a bit hasty writing off Typhoon Dujuan as a "bit of
a non-event" after a quick look around on Wednesday morning.
I was in a hurry to get off to work and had only a quick look on the
side where I had heard the crashing sound the previous night.
Since then I have had time to walk around, listen to people and so on.
Here in our own apartment complex, Belair Gardens, the damage must run
into many millions.  On the opposite side of our building from where I
had looked on Wednesday morning before giving my half-baked report, all
thirty stories of bamboo scaffolding had collapsed over a car park full
of expensive cars, blocking the road, and some of it even reaching over
the estate wall and flattening the jungle on the nearby mountainside.  
Hundreds of homes had their windows smashed by flying bamboo.  Homes
with their windows smashed then had hours of driving rain blasted into
the rooms by the wind soaking and damaging everything inside.
The noise I had heard the previous night of debris clanging against the
metal cage around our balcony turned out to have been made by a myriad
of bits of bamboo and of various building materials being blown off the
adjacent buildings.  I'm glad now that when we looked for our present
flat, one of our criteria was to have a fully enclosed cage around the
balcony ... it probably saved all our large windows from smashing.  As
to why all of our bedroom windows didn't get smashed by all this
airborne junk, I can only be thankful to God that by some miracle they
were protected.  
By this morning (Friday 5th September) some of the damaged cars had been
recovered and handed over to their owners, but others are still totally
buried under heaps of rubble that must be up to thirty or forty feet in
height at some points.
Talking to people from around our area, there are many more stories of
smashed windows and ruined furniture, damaged cars, flooding, and so on.
As I walked around the district late last night I saw many construction
sites where wreckage was strewn everywhere: hoardings blown down,
scaffolding collapsed, site huts blown over.  Trees that we had watched
grow over the years from tiny seedlings to become beautiful sources of
shade in the streets had been completely uprooted and blown hundreds of
metres from where they had stood.  There are streets and roads which are
impassable because flooding due to the typhoon has washed away the
concrete from which they were constructed.
Dujuan was truly anything but a non-event!
Meanwhile, I have checked up on the course of the actual eye of the
typhoon and read up on the damage caused further afield.
The centre of the eye passed by about 30 km North of the HK Observatory,
that is about 18 km North of my place, across the border in China.  It
passed through the centre of the city of Shen Zhen which sprawls along
the border on the Chinese side.
In the city of Shen Zhen, at least 32 people were killed and more than
100 injured, some when buildings collapsed on them.  I have not yet seen
any figures from there regarding those made homeless etc., but
reportedly hundreds of buildings were destroyed or damaged and hundreds
of trees were uprooted.
On the Hong Kong side of the border 85 trees were reported as uprooted,
closing a number of roads.  The Lau Fau Shan AWS on the HK side of the
border was well within the eye of the storm, (see attached wind speed
and pressure charts) [at bottom of this web page] and shows that the storm
virtually collapsed as it passed over.  
At 21:30 the ten-minute average wind speed was recorded as 120 km/h
(from NW); at 22:00 it was 20 km/h (VRB); by 23:00 it had climbed back
up to 50 km/h (from SW), but after that it began to die away again
blowing off and on at mostly 20 - 30 km/h until well into the next day.
So the short answer to your question is: buildings collapsed, trees were
uprooted, there was flood damage, but the overall damage wasn't too
great.  Crossing fifty kilometres or so of mountainous land had subdued
the storm considerably by the time it struck.

One can't help but wonder what would have happened had the storm
remained over open water and passed 30 km South of the Observatory ...
the damage to Hong Kong would have been horrendous.  The winds would
have remained higher at around 100 knots and there are no ranges of
mountains in the South China Sea to protect us from the winds that would
have blasted in straight off the sea.

We can all be thankful here that Dujuan decided to go inland when it did.
I suppose, though that the people of Southern China suffered a lot more,
the way things worked out.

This will be my last report on Dujuan unless some more interesting facts
come to light.

Phil
<><

HKO Records:

Graphs below were captured from the web pages of the Hong Kong Observatory and are Copyright (c) HK Observatory.

The graphs record weather changes in Sha Tin where I live.

24-hour Time Series of Air Temperature ___ and Relative Humidity ___

24-hour Time Series of Mean Sea Level Pressure

24-hour Time Series of 10-minute Mean Wind Direction

24-hour Time Series of 10-minute Mean Wind Speed

And a series of wind speed graphs for Cheung Chau:
24-hour Time Series of 10-minute Mean Wind Speed

The last set of graphs above will show the wind speed in Cheung Chau, which is an island in the South China Sea, and is much more exposed to high winds than the sheltered valley in which I live here in Sha Tin.

As Lau Fau Shan was the station closest to the eye of the storm, I have included a couple of extra graphs showing the storm's passage below:

24-hour Time Series of Mean Sea Level Pressure

24-hour Time Series of 10-minute Mean Wind Speed

This page was last edited on 07/02/2008 at 08:37:30 HKT

31/8/03

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