Hurricane Catarina** [or Aldonça*] (01T) - Rare South Atlantic Hurricane - March 2004

*Unofficial name coined by Roger Edson  **Name given by Brazilian Meteorologists

NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

Introduction

On 22 March 2004 a vortex appeared in the South Atlantic Ocean.  Now everyone knows that tropical cyclones just don't happen in the South Atlantic.  This storm just didn't know how to obey the rules.  By 25th March it stirred up the waters of the South Atlantic, but even more, it stirred up the hearts and imaginations of cyclone watchers in all corners of the globe, professional and amateur alike.  I plan to list below the e-mails and other reports that this storm evoked, and I hope that these will help you to share in the excitement of looking at what indeed is a very rare event in meteorological history.  The TCDG referred to so often in this page is an informal group of people who are interested in Tropical Cyclones.  One member of the group, Roger Edson, unofficially gave this storm the name "Aldonça" (pronounced "Al-don-sah") which is a Portuguese word used as a name for women (although not necessarily in Brazil).  The similar name "Aldoncia" means "sweet."  Later the official agency in Brazil named the cyclone "Catarina" after the name of the Brazilian state towards which it was headed.   Another agency in Brazil put out regular warnings naming the storm "1-T Alfa".
I have added to the page some e-mails depicting the humour evoked among weather enthusiasts by this unusual storm as well as some which branch into discussions of other storms about which contributors were reminded by this storm.

If any reader has other e-mails or reports which ought to be added to this page to make it more complete, please forward them to me at smithp AT ics DOT edu DOT hk.
If any Brazilian readers have further information, reports or pictures, please forward them to me at the above address.  Thanks.

This page was prepared at a resolution of 1600 x 1048 pixels and is designed to be viewed at a resolution of 1024 x 768 pixels or higher.  Narrower screens may cause a great deal of awkward sideways scrolling.

Times in e-mail headers are Hong Kong Time, which is UTC + 8 hours.

Important Note:

This web-site does not attempt to give any warnings on any storms.  This page aims at recording for the purpose of future study by professional and amateur weather enthusiasts the comments and reports which were being made as we sought to understand this once-in-a-lifetime event.  Nothing on this page, therefore, should be construed as "official" information.

E-mails and references

Thursday 25th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 11:30 Subject: South ATL ST
David,
Is there a new Subtropical Storm forming south of Brazil??
Cheers, HCl

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 15:11 Subject: Re: South ATL ST
Interesting. Looks like a near-textbook occluded cyclone...but with active central convection...off southern Brazil...clearly a hybrid of some sort...but that occlusion seen in the low clouds would make me leery of using the "s" word. The convection is much better wrapped than the system a couple weeks ago...but the fronts are sharper and clearly seen on the IR tonight. Some would say it is detached from the main frontal band...which is true...occlusions usually are relatively devoid of much temp gradient. If you zoomed in tight enough , it would appear tropical. I wonder what the cyclone phase space would show for this system.
Last time we had something like this in the Atlantic was November 1996 off Nova Scotia. One of these type of systems ran up through Chesapeake Bay in
January 1992. Neat. =)
DR

From: "huangchunliang" To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 22:03 Subject: Re: South ATL ST
Thanks for your insight, David!
The cyclone looked neatest at 25/0300Z with the standard shape of a comma. Will keep tab on the progress.
BTW, do you know where I could got the high resolution imageries for this area?
HCl

Friday 26th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:13 Subject: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
Check out the link of the high res visible from 1640z. http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?A040851640
Never seen an eye feature in the South Atlantic before,
DR

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:24 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
Just curious- what government agency is responsible for issuing an advisory and/or officially classifying systems in the south Atlantic?
Matt

From: "Steve Lyons" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:36 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
I saw this Matt.....very interesting! Steve

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:41 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
That's a good question. I'm fairly sure it's not the US. I'll ask the other group and see if anyone knows.
DR

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 05:16 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
This answers the warning question. -DR
.Hi David,
.According the WMO map http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/TCP/images/MapRSMC-all.png nobody has responsibility for TCs in the South Atlantic. However, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Centre issues the High Seas Forecast for that region (METAREA V), so maybe they would be the likely choice?
.Mike

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 07:12 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
David,
South ATL STCs and TCs sounds like a good topic for you to do a paper on at the 2006 conference.

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 11:42 Subject: South ATL hybrid - Spectacular IR/Vis Loop!
Hi all,
The following links include satellite animations of the South Atlantic hybrid system:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy, Adrian Garcia

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 11:46 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
It's too bad I can't crack a bottle of bubbly at the moment--this is big news, IMO. Fantastic image--thanks much!
Cheers! -John

From: "Roger Edwards" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 12:00 Subject: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
Julian, David, et al.,
Very, very impressive. Thanks for posting that link. We'll never know for sure, but I would bet my lunch today that this South Atlantic cyclone has become warm-core, with 1. Such a pronounced banded-eye feature and 2. Well-defined upper level anticyclonic (counterclockwise in Southern Hemisphere) outflow channel, particularly to its south.
This system (being a Texan I've been nicknaming it Hurricane Bubba for lack of any other ideas) is a history maker.
It is, IMHO, the most intense south Atlantic TC ever observed. The caveat with that statement is that so few ever have been observed! :-)
The first known S. Atlc TC (the one I classified back in '91 while at NHC) was a TD or marginal TS (briefly) at best, a feeble little burp compared to this. [The '91 system was much nearer to the equator (S of western Africa) and indisputably tropical in character.] Even the system back in January, which Boris just reminded me about offline, didn't look anywhere nearly this intense.
Has anyone done some objective T-numbers on this thing (for banded-eye type structure)?

From: "David Roth" To: garyp
Date: 03/26/2004 12:23 Subject: Track of South Atl ST/TC
I checked over our 00z South American surface analyses done on weekdays by the International Desks...and it appears that this system was the next wave up the front/SACZ (short for South American Convergence Zone) from the mid-March ST attempt (2 day gap in analyses during 3/20-21 which leaves room for doubt).
Below is the track for the most recent storm, which includes satellite positions from GOES East. The pressures look mainly derived from the GFS initialisation ...very few obs were reported near this system. Ships are listed when anywhere near the system. Looks like it started becoming convectively active on the 22nd on the imagery. Water temps from a nearby buoy are 75F...24C.
3/22 00z 31S   38W    996 Occluded
     18z 30.8S 37.9W From satellite
          SE  20 kt ship near 27.8S 41.6W 1013.0 hPa
3/23 00z 30.5S 37.3W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
          ESE 15 kt ship near 29.8S 43.6W 1017.7 hPa
     12z 29.8S 37.9W From satellite
          ESE 10 kt ship near 27.4S 41.9W 1016.3 hPa
     18z 29.8S 38.5W From satellite
          NW  15 kt ship near 28.5S 34.0W 1013 hPa
          S   10 kt ship near 26.0S 41.5W 1014.9 hPa
3/24 00z 29.9S 38.7W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
     12z 29.5S 39.7W From satellite
     18z 29.5S 39.7W From satellite
3/25 00z 28.8S 40.1W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
     12z 29.0S 41.3W From satellite
     18z 28.7S 41.9W From satellite
3/26 00z 28.5S 42.5W From satellite
DR

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:03 Subject: South ATL HUR
Hi folks,
Thanks for sharing all the images of the South ATL ST/TC (may I call it a Hurricane now?)! Looks as if the "eye" is evolving into a bona fide one.
Drink to the earthshaking event in the realm of TC,
HCl

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:07 Subject: Re: South ATL HUR
Really will be something if it hits the coast of Brazil as a hurricane!!!
Does anyone have any e-mail contact with some person in Brazil's met service???
SAB has started posting bulletins on this system on their webpage.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:28 Subject: Latest IR Image of SATL "Hurricane"
I hope we see some ground (or should I say ocean) truth data on this!
<<0403260244z.gif>>
Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:48 Subject: RE: South ATL HUR
Gary...where on the SAB page is the bulletin? I can't seem to find it.
Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:55 Subject: QuikSCAT Winds of SATL Tropical System
Ascending pass: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBas28.png
Descending Pass: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBds28.png

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 14:11 Subject: Re: QuikSCAT Winds of SATL Tropical System
Now, why in the world would you go to these sites when the FNMOC site is so much better? Do you know that on these global images, that only every 1/3rd vector is plotted?
Roger

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 18:25 Subject: Re: South ATL HUR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
----- Original Message -----
> Gary...where on the SAB page is the bulletin? I can't seem to find it.
> Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 18:41 Subject: First Visible of South Atlantic System
Looks quite impressive!
<<satltc.gif>>
Boris

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 19:53 Subject: Latest S Atlantic QuikSCAT
Hi,
I sent these images to my other group (I'm not supposed to send messages to the two at the same time...)
Roger

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:09 Subject: Hurricane 01T
Interesting!!!
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.03.2004
TROPICAL STORM 01T ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6S 41.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.03.2004 28.6S 41.8W WEAK
12UTC 26.03.2004 28.7S 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.03.2004 28.8S 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.03.2004 29.6S 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.03.2004 29.5S 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.03.2004 29.8S 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.03.2004 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
HCl

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:21 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
The designation of "T" for the South Atlantic...is that the official letter used for this basin? -- not that we've ever needed to use it before! :)
Boris

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 20:54 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
You guys are quick off the mark aren't you! I requested that Met Office forecasters to start issuing guidance on this system this morning. Our system demands that the cyclone has a name or identifier. The classifications currently used across the globe use the letters A (Arabian Sea), B (Bay of Bengal), C (Central Pacific), E (NE Pacific), F (Fiji region), L (N Atlantic), P (S Pacific), S (S Indian), U (Australian regions). Since S and A are used I chose the next letter in 'S Atlantic' (T) to denote this storm. I hasten to add there is nothing 'official' about this. I did wonder whether JTWC would designate it as 22S, but didn't think I should use this in case JTWC use it for the next S Indian ocean TC. Any other ideas for a name or identifier?
On the subject of this particular forecast, the 00Z run of the Met Office model has a relatively weak system which it dissipates after 2 days prior to landfall. However, this is without its usual TC initialisation which relies on advisories being issued (which of course is not happening). However, subsequent runs will be initialised, so it'll be interesting to see what the forecasts come up with.
Julian

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:54 Subject: **South Atlantic Hurricane - Incredible Imagery Links**
Hi,
The following links include satellite animations of the South Atlantic hybrid system:
Visible Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Also Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:18 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
Well done, Julian! We really need an identifier to discuss this supernatural.
Of course, I know well that the suffix "T" was not the official one because there is no such an agency on the earth that has the responsibility for warning on the South ATL TC. Besides, I don't think that JTWC will take the job to designate it as "22S". BTW, I still remember that the 1995 Mediterranean sea "TC" has been identified as "01M" on one of the track maps plotted by UK Met Office.
HCl

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 21:22 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
Yes - 01M was my idea as well. Maybe I've got a new job of designating identifiers for unusual TC locations!
Julian

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:30 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
"Tropical Storm 01T" sounds fine to me. Since JTWC warns on the rest of the entire Southern Hemisphere, why do they not warn on this one? They have gone outside of their usual areas before when an unusual storm was in the SE Pacific way east of where they are normally seen a year or two back.
I think that with better satellite systems we may find that more storms are discovered in the future beyond the limits of the usual basins. It is not that these storms haven't always happened, it's just that there has never been anyone there to discover them.
If you think about it, if storms formed in the middle of the S Atlantic and dissipated before reaching any land, then until satellite coverage became the norm, there would be no earthly way of anybody knowing about them.
If my recollection of maps showing shipping lanes is correct (it's been a while since my schooldays!) there were very few lines crossing the middle of the S Atlantic.
Just a few rambling thoughts. What do others think?
I have added the storm to my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm - not that I could find many links. If anyone can supply other suitable links for following this storm, I would appreciate hearing about them.
Phil
<><

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:33 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> Of course, I know well that the suffix "T" was not the official ... [snip]
> Mediterranean sea "TC" has been identified as "01M" on one of the track
> maps plotted by UK Met Office.
I was going to say would you use "M" for the Med-canes, and apparently you have.
The "T" designator for the South Atlantic sounds fine to me--as good as "L" for the North Atlantic. Also (referring to Julian's earlier posting), don't forget "W" for the Western Pacific.

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/26/2004 21:52 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
TC Fay is certainly an impressive storm in many ways. I think it will cross the coast somewhere near Pardoo sometime on Saturday morning, although, as always with TCs, anything may happen in the meantime.
At the same time we have the most unusual storm I think I have ever added to my web page (at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm) in the form of Tropical Storm 01T in the South Atlantic approaching Brazil.
Storms here are so rare that there is no RSMC appointed to give warnings on them. The UK Met Office has started to issue guidance on it, but no agency is taking up the challenge to issue warnings for a cyclone where a cyclone has never been seen before.
Phil
<><

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 22:54 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
JTWC is only chartered with warning in the SH from the east coast of Africa eastward across the South Indian and South Pacific to the west coast of South America. Why?? Because all the textbooks say the tropical cyclones do not form in the South Atlantic. Period.
I agree, no doubt there have been many in the past, and probably more than one would think even after the dawn of the satellite age. Quite likely many people monitoring the usual basins rarely even look at the South Atlantic.
And also, the issue of hybrid vs subtropical vs tropical comes into play with systems such as this one. There are probably many meteorologists around the world who aren't as comfortable calling a system of higher latitude origin "tropical" as NHC is.

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 23:26 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
There's been another hi-res pass over the system (26/1310Z). http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040861310
Julian

Saturday 27th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 00:07 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Julian (and everyone else...),
> You guys are quick off the mark aren't you! <snip>. The classifications currently used across the globe use the letters A (Arabian Sea), B (Bay of Bengal), C (Central Pacific), E (NE Pacific), F (Fiji region), L (N Atlantic), P (S Pacific), S (S Indian), U (Australian regions).
Tell JTWC about the 'nnU' designator, they insist on 'S' & 'P'. As a matter of record, I believe all TC's should be lettered according to the AOR in which the first advisories are issued (usually when the storm is at TD stage), and use my own letters for TC's, generally going with what's in official use for the NH (including nnM for Mediterranean systems). But for SH, because I've always felt that the "S/P" designators are too generic, I use:
I -- SIO (Reunion/MFR)
R -- PeRth
D -- Darwin
Q -- Brisbane (>Queensland)
N -- Port Moresby (>New Guinea)
J -- Nadi (>FiJi, chosen so as not to clash with Nadi's internal nnF designators)
Z -- Wellington (>New Zealand)
X -- SOUTH ATLANTIC
Being an amateur and therefore not being bound by anyone's rules, I've always catered for the possibility of SATL storms in my TC database design. It would seem this has now paid off, as the SATL has had quite an active last few months. If my memory serves me right, 01T is actually the third or fourth SATL 'entity' we've seen this SH season. Tentatively I'd designate it 03X.
As for Fiji -- I believe they intended their nnF designators for their own use, and certainly up till this year no-one else has used them. I seem to recall one or two recent marine advisories from Brisbane which have mentioned Fijian storms using those designators, but the storms concerned originated and remained within Nadi's AOR. Brisbane has not hitherto continued using nnF designators once a storm has crossed 160E, even though Nadi's name is always retained. I for one would be happy to see nnF become the official designator for Fijian-origin storms, and of course would use it in place of "J" in my database.
> ...22S, but didn't think I should use this in case JTWC use it for the next S Indian ocean TC.
That they certainly would, providing the next SH storm to interest them develops in the SIO -- otherwise it'll be 22P. Why they have one count for the whole SH I don't know, like surely S and P should be counted separately. All the other letters are...
> Any other ideas for a name or identifier?
As I said, 03X... As for a name, let's hold a competition :-)
> However, subsequent runs will be initialised, so it'll be interesting to see what the forecasts come up with.
I suspect we'll all be watching with bated breath.... :-)
Yours,
Matthew

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/27/2004 00:24 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
The NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch are issuing fixes with Dvorak classifications. They currently have it as T4.0. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
For information, 12Z run of the Met Office model has it recurving short of the Brazilian coast and dissipating at sea.
Julian

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 00:30 Subject: **South Atlantic Hurricane - UPDATED Imagery Links**
Hi again,
The following links have been updated because the Floater 2 has now switched over to Floater 1. Note that the floater 1 now has a spectacular RGB loop.
****RGB Loop****  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
Visible Loop  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
The following links remain the same:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 03/27/2004 00:52 Subject: Brazilian Link
Here is a link to a page of the Brazilian Hydrographic Centre. http://www.dhn.mar.mil.br/chm/meteo/prev/meteoro/boletiming.htm
They must not think too much of "Alpha" (or whatever). No warnings, and in the analysis section they regard it as a 1006-mb low.

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 01:53 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
> They must not think too much of "Alpha" (or whatever). No warnings, and in the analysis section they regard it as a 1006-mb low.
1006 yeah right- to my untrained eye, this looks like at least a solid cat 1, probably a 2 right now....pretty amazing!
I hope someone at JTWC or NHC is archiving this data for post-analysis (would make a good paper).
Matt

From: "Kevin Boyle" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 02:33 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
Gary and list,
They appear to have awoken up now after I checked earlier this afternoon.
There's a severe weather warning now if you can understand Spanish or Portuguese or whatever. Winds of gale-force 7 are affecting the northern parts of areas "Alpha" and southern "Bravo" and "Charlie". Note that they have designated it as an extratropical cyclone at 1004 mb. See below. I've only listed the three sea areas that the cyclone is affecting. Severe weather warning not included below.
Regards
Kevin
WEATHER AND SEA BULLETIN REFERENT TO 1200 ANALYSIS 26/MAR/2004
DATE AND TIME REFERENCE MERIDIAN OF GREENWICH - GMT
PRESSURE HPA
BEAUFORT SCALE WINDS
WAVES HEIGHT METRES
PART ONE - WARNINGS
WARNING NR 054/2004
GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1700 – FRI– 26/MAR/2004
NEAR GALE FORCE 7 SW/SE AFFECTING SOUTH OF AREAS BRAVO/CHARLIE AND N OF AREA ALFA .
VALID UNTIL 271500.
WARNING NR 055/2004
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1700 – FRI – 26/MAR/2004
ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES FM SE/E 3.0/4.0 METERS AFFECTING NORTH OF AREA AND ALFA E S OF BRAVO/CHARLIE.
VALID UNTIL 271500.
PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 261200
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 1004 29S042W. LOW 1006 33S036W. HIGH 1018 43S060W. HIGH 1020 43S029W. HIGH 1018 34S053W. HIGH 1018 24S034W. Q-STNR DISSIPATING FRONT OVER ILHÉUS. TROUGH AT 14S040W, 14S043W AND 13S046W.
I T C Z 05N020W, 00N030W, 02N40W AND 03N050W WITH 3/4 DEGREES WIDE WITH LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS IN THE WHOLE BAND.
PART THREE - WEATHER FCST VALID FM 270000 TO 280000
AREA ALFA (FM ARROIO CHUI TO CABO DE SANTA MARTA)
EARLY MORNING/MORNING MIST NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS EXTREME N OF AREA. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS N OF AREA AND SE/NE 3/4 OCNL 5 S OF AREA. WAVES FM SE/E 1.0/2.0 S OF AREA AND 3.0/4.0 BECMG 1.5/2.5 N OF AREA. VIS GOOD OCNL MOD.
AREA BRAVO (FM CABO DE SANTA MARTA TO CABO FRIO - OCEANIC)
LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS S OF AREA. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS AT S OF AREA AND NE/NW 3/4 ELSE. WAVES FM SE/E 1.0/2.0. VIS GOOD DECR TO MOD DURING SHWRS.
AREA CHARLIE (FM CABO DE SANTA MARTA TO CABO FRIO - COAST)
MIST NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS AT S OF AREA AND SE/NE 3/4 AT N OF AREA. WAVES FM S/SE 1.0/2.0 N OF AREA AND SE/E 1.5/2.5 S OF AREA. VIS GOOD OCNL MOD.

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 03:55 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
SAB started classifications yesterday. =)
DR
----- Original Message -----
> Has anyone done some objective T-numbers on this thing (for banded-eye type structure)?

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 04:03 Subject: Fwd: RE: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
Here is my suggestion to the other half of the 'gang'.
Let's hear it for Hurricane Aldonça!
Roger
--- Roger Edson [snip] wrote:
> Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 12:00:45 -0800 (PST)
> From: Roger Edson [snip]
> Subject: RE: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
> To: TropicalStorms
> Hi,
> I'd like to suggest: Hurricane Aldonça
> Basically in this internet age, I 'googled' for Portuguese women's names and liked this one the best (common name and starts with an 'A').
> 1. No way this is the 'first' or the 'last' system to have hurricane characteristics. Obviously it is rare, and I betcha that it is even rarer for it to hit the coast (being located usually within the westerlies).
> 2. I think the (1)lack of incipient systems, (2) vertical shear, and (3) Unlikelihood of retrograde or stagnant motion poleward of the subtropical jet in order to have time to develop a convective warm core are the primary reasons for their rarity. Remember, this system formed as a hybrid, subtropical system.
> In addition, the lack of the combination of these systems hitting the Brazilian coast with the accompanying satellite imagery furnish the basic reason for the lack of documentation. (BTW, I am sure that people have been 'hit' by these things, without ever knowing what hit them...).
> 3. Please remember that ships at sea ARE affected by these things...so, it doesn't help to educate about them and set up, perhaps, a better procedure (within the WMO) to warn on them is probably appropriate.
> Roger
> --- "Fogarty,Chris [Dartmouth]" wrote:
> > That's exactly what I was thinking Gary...there may have been other tropical-like systems down there before, we just didn't see them. This  is obviously very rare though...but I often wondered why we don't see more tropical systems down there .... I mean the SSTs are warm enough this time of year, and you'd think the shear would be light enough at times to allow more TCs to form.
> > What is the main inhibiting factor to tropical cyclogenesis in the South   Atlantic? I've asked many people this question, but never got a good answer. Is it basin width? (doubt it). Is it too hostile upper level winds? No persistent ITCZ to form TCs?
> > Chris
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Gary Padgett [snip]
> > Sent: Friday, March 26, 2004 11:18 AM
> > To: TropicalStorms
> > Subject: Re: [Tropical-storms] First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane
> > > Anyway, Mark Lander brought up another, rather interesting, South Atlantic system to this group on Jan 19 of this year.
> > > See IR and quickscat: http://tstorms.org/mailman/private/tropical-storms/2004/4902.html
> > > There must be something unusual in the South Atlantic this year that is allowing these storms to form.
> > > Bill
> > A big question I have is: can anyone say with certainty that events such as this have not been happening from time to time in the SA? Was the January TC truly the first since the April, 1991 system? Or (as I tend to suspect) such storms have formed occasionally but no one, at least in the main internet-connected TC community, has spotted or called attention to them?
> > Best regards,
> > Gary

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 04:36 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
This year was seeming so ordinary too...without a doubt, this is the most surreal day in my life as a TC-watcher.
In a good way, of course! :D
-John

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 04:56 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T)
Well....here is a little memory for you..
BTW, both NRL and FNMOC sites have opened an area up for further view in the microwave imagery (and scat).
Do you like 'my' name 'Aldonça'?
Roger

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip] Cc: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 05:01 Subject: Nrlmry now tracking the south Atlantic hurricane
Hi All,
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Regards,
Adrian

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:28 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> In a message dated 3/26/2004 8:56:51 AM Central Standard Time, gary padgett writes:
> agree, no doubt there have been many in the past, and probably more than one would think even after the dawn of the satellite age. Quite likely many people monitoring the usual basins rarely even look at the South Atlantic.
My thoughts exactly--no doubt this bad girl will get tropical meteorologists to finally comb through tons of SATL met imagery since the 1960s, and maybe some ship and land reports. :D
This is just amazing, really. I really can't believe it.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:31 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
[snip]
Nah, I have to tell you what's funny--that this is perhaps the only TC in the world that you can't test CLIPER against. ;)
-John

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 03/27/2004 06:34 Subject: AODT on S-ATL system
> Tim Olander ran our latest AODT on this system around 15Z. Agrees with the AMSU pretty close.
> Chris/Tim
> ****************************************************
> UW - CIMSS
> ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
> AODT - Version 6.3
> Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
> ----- Current Analysis -----
>   Date : 26 MAR 2004 Time : 144500 UTC
>    Lat : 28:55:22 S Lon : 43:59:12 W
>            CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
>            4.5 / 974.0mb/ 77.0kt
>    Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -5.0mb
> Eye Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -40.8C
> Scene Type : CLEAR EYE
> Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:35 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
In a message dated 3/26/2004 11:57:14 AM Central Standard Time, mcrowther@[snip] writes:
> I hope someone at JTWC or NHC is archiving this data for post-analysis (would make a good paper).
No worries--I'm pretty the sure the TC specialists we have on here will do right by us. ;)
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:39 Subject: Re: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
In a message dated 3/26/2004 3:29:33 PM Central Standard Time, rogeredson@[snip] writes:
> Here is my suggestion to the other half of the 'gang'.
> Let's hear it for Hurricane Aldonça!
> Roger
Hear, hear!! :D
You know, some people could make a name in the field based on this storm alone...just wait.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 07:16 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T)
The name will work. ;-) I was thinking more along the lines of "Cabral", after the first European to land on Brazil's coast, but yours has a better local flavour.
-John

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: <TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:08 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Gary and All,
That's one thing why amazing events do happen to our planet... don't forget VAMEI, the first ever recorded "Equator TC" in 2002! :-D
Cheers!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:25 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Roger,
I agree with the name "Aldonça" - very Brazilian and south American! :-)
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:35 Subject: How can Aldonça be its Official Name???
Roger and All,
This is like hunting comets.... I hope your coined name will be official!!
Let's make it official to our group! I just added it over my site!
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:59 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Yes, Michael, I agree.
On my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm I have named it HURRICANE ALDONÇA 01T ... it just makes it easier to refer to.
I do notice that NRL are calling it 01L.NONAME, placing it in the Atlantic section, and I wonder whether they intend to just make it the first storm of this year's (North) Atlantic basin even though it is south of the Equator. NFMOC also refer to it as 01L.NONAME, but they place it in the Southern Hemisphere section of their page.
This event is certainly causing some stretching of boundaries, isn't it!
I hope we will see some good studies made of it in the future.
I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
Phil
<><

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:00 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear All,
I notice that our rare bird has been given "01L" by NLMRY, yet no name from the "L" list. By rights, it should be "Alex", to go with 01L. I wonder if NLMRY's use of 01L is going to affect NHC's numbering when the NATL becomes active? But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?
BTW, I'll go with "Aldonça", unless it's officially decided to name the poor thing from the NATL list.
And I'm beginning to wonder -- now that it seems it's been acknowledged the SATL does spawn TC's, when will we see our first-ever cross-equatorial Atlantic twin? Now, that would be something! Anything's possible...
Matthew

From: Jim Leonard To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:04 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
Jim

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:12 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Dear Phil (and all),
> This event is certainly causing some stretching of boundaries, isn't it!
Bet your life, mate!
> I hope we will see some good studies made of it in the future.
I suspect people will still be writing papers on this one when we're all dead and buried :-)
> I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
Yes!! Great idea!! Go for it!!!

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:13 Subject: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Dear Jim, Phil and All,
Please click on the link to see this rare TC thru the TERRA satellite lens...
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040861310
SPECTACULAR!!!
Oh btw, even though my site is focused on NWP and SCS basins, I decided to post it!!! Cool! :-)
Phil, I'm now creating a tracking chart which I used for the NWP TCs... Btw can you please give me the exact coordinates of some of the Brazilian cities near the coast which might get affected by ALDONÇA, if you're not busy?
Will be waiting for it...
Cheers,
Michael =;-)

From: "Simon Angell" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:16 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Hi Phil et al.
Very nice storm that 01T - Hurricane ALDONÇA http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Seem to take everyone by surprise, will be interesting to see the follow up reports after the event has passed.
Simon

From: "Jane ONeill" To: <Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:23 Subject: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Interesting satpic from the 24th March 1320UTC - same storm further off the coast? http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040841320
The upper analysis over this are at 12Z 26th March is interesting. http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/init/avn_4panel_init_sam.html
I wonder if this system is a hybrid?
Cheers,
Jane

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:34 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Phil I agree on the Hurricane approaching Brazil. I can't help but wonder what the pattern is to allow such a development, We are watching the movement of Fay which is also proving quite an interesting event and getting some media coverage on ABC mainly. The people up there must be having a hard time.
Gavin
SSWW Canberra

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:36 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Phil and Simon ,
Had a look at the Sat Pix, awesome, they will have to rewrite the textbooks after this one!
Gavin

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:38 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Jim (and all),
> The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
> Jim
In which case it begs the question: Why are they using the code-letter for the "wrong" basin? Calling it 01L is going to get it confused with North Atlantic TC's, I
would think. Any comments, anyone?
MS

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:48 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Hi Jane and all,
This may have started life as a hybrid, but it is at this moment a full-scale Hurricane with fully tropical characteristics, whether the experts like it or not.
I have just a few minutes ago commenced a page devoted to it at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm in an attempt to gather in one place a lot of the data and observations that are flying around in cyberspace regarding this system.
You will need to come back to the page again later as it will take me many hours to gather and format all the data I have saved.
Yes the picture you have linked to is the same storm which a bunch of us have been following since it first formed on about 22nd or 23rd March.
The latest run by UK Met is predicting that the storm will recurve and miss the Brazil coast, eventually dissipating at sea.
Phil
<><

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 11:00 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Phil,
Just got some coordinates @ weatherunderground.
thanks anyway,
Michael =;-)

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 12:11 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Matthew...and others,
This 'code-letter' is just a way to display the area for view...it has nothing to do with nothing...
Since I complained about not getting a MI views, the folks in Monterey (who maintain these views) created an area. Without reprogramming the whole thing, they just used what they got (it can easily be deleted or given a different number/letter by the time the Atlantic season starts).
Looks like its going to be a short life for Aldonça (01T) as it is very dry in the surrounding regions.
Also, looks like Oscar has just about had it too.
BTW, looking at the radar view of Fay coming on the coast shows why no one reported any strong winds...
Easily, it went in between sites (which happens all to frequently around the world). Of course, this is just like the analogy of a tree falling down in the woods and making any 'noise': i.e. I'm sure if you went along the coast to exactly where the eye came on shore, you WOULD see evidence of a major TC coming on shore (the IRbd seemed to hold its signature until the very last minute).
Roger

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 12:41 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA
Phil,
I have e-mailed Clem Davis O I C of the ACT Met Office re the Hurricane to see what he thinks. We have a AGM of the AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ) Canberra branch on Wednesday at the ANU and I guess it will be a topic of discussion. We are expecting the new Director of the BOM as guest speaker that evening. I will post any responses later. Keep up the good work on your page, I read it before coming on line.
Gavin

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 12:55 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
In a message dated 3/26/2004 7:36:07 PM Central Standard Time, [Michael] writes:
> This is like hunting comets.... I hope your coined name will be official!!
> Let's make it official to our group! I just added it over my site!
We may keep it within the group, but with caution...I know some people find names politically sensitive, especially when it comes to a non-RMC forecaster naming one...
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:00 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
In a message dated 3/26/2004 7:58:21 PM Central Standard Time, [Matthew] writes:
> But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?
I agree--I go with "nnT". For what it's worth, though, I seriously doubt the NHC is influenced by the letter suffixes the Navy or whoever assigns to cyclones. Nor do I think they'll add it to the NHC's name list--that would open a huge political can of worms.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:06 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
In a message dated 3/26/2004 8:01:44 PM Central Standard Time, [Phil] writes:
> I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
> Phil
Sounds like a plan! Of course, we could also just put all our input into an (un)official report once the March global summary comes out...
-John

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: "Typhoon Gang" TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:27 Subject: ALDONÇA's Track
Dear Phil and all,
Just uploaded over my site the tracking of Aldonça (01T) {also attached on this e-mail}. This is based on SSD positions plus the data I acquired thru the NRL site.
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:34 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
What do you think Phil? Are we going to remove ALDONÇA?
Please advise...
Michael =;-)
----- Original Message -----
From: Dosidicus[snip]
> We may keep it within the group, but with caution...I know some people find names politically sensitive, especially when it comes to a non-RMC forecaster naming one...
> -John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:43 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track (Herald Article)
Thanks much for the track!
Here's an article from the Miami Herald on this bad girl:
Surprise! Hurricane forms off Brazilian coast
By MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer AT herald DOT com
Extraordinarily surprised forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre scrambled Friday to help Brazilian meteorologists track the first hurricane ever reported in the South Atlantic.
The stealth hurricane, located about 275 miles off Brazil's southern coast, has no name because it's not supposed to be there. No one was even sure who was responsible to track it.
''It appears that we have our first ever South Atlantic hurricane, at least the first we know of,'' said Jack Beven, a forecaster at the hurricane centre in West Miami-Dade County. ``We're all kind of scratching our heads over here. We're not exactly geared up for this area.''
Data about the storm were scarce, but Beven said he believed it was a minimal Category 1 hurricane, with wind of 74-95 mph. It appeared to be drifting slowly toward Brazil, but it was too early to say if it would strike land.
He said forecasters at the hurricane centre were attempting to help Brazilian meteorologists, who may have other things to worry about but have never before seen a hurricane.
''We know there hasn't been a hurricane in that area since at least the satellite era, the mid-60s at the minimum,'' Beven said.
He emphasised that the storm was a meteorological curiosity and had nothing to do with South Florida's week of wind or chances of getting struck by a hurricane this year. Our six-month hurricane season begins June 1.
"This has no predictive value at all for the normal Atlantic season,'' he said.
link: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/8286042.htm
P.S. I -- By the way, for the uninitiated, I think the name is pronounced "Al-don-sah".
P.S. II -- I can't believe no one's written up "Samba" yet, from last month(?)...

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:44 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
I didn't mean that we shouldn't use the name, only that we should indicate that it's unofficial and not try to pass it off as it's "real" name...
-John

From: Jack Beven To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:57 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Phil and all,
Phil Smith wrote:
[snip]
> I do notice that NRL are calling it 01L.NONAME, placing it in the Atlantic section, and I wonder whether they intend to just make it the first storm of this year's (North) Atlantic basin even though it is south of the Equator. NFMOC also refer to it as 01L.NONAME, but they place it in the Southern Hemisphere section of their page.
[snip]
01L came about during our attempts to run model guidance on the system. Our ATCF computer was choking on some of the other things we tried. We're not planning to give it a North Atlantic name.
We have been in contact with the meteorological service in Brazil and will likely continue to do so as long as the storm is a threat.
Jack Beven

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 14:00 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Thanks John.... will add it on the track and on my site. :-)
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"
----- Original Message -----
From: Dosidicus
> I didn't mean that we shouldn't use the name, only that we should indicate that it's unofficial and not try to pass it off as it's "real" name...
> -John

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 14:03 Subject: Hurricane 01T catches CNN News Bureau!!!
Dear All,
Just browsing CNN and alas, "Aldonça" is on their site!!!  http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/26/hurricane.brazil.reut/index.html
Ciao =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 14:17 Subject: VAMEI and 01T: The Law Breakers!!!
Dear All,
As we have seen the turn of the century, 2 unique TCs has broken the Law of TC formation. VAMEI and 01T (ALDONÇA). Are there still laws that meant to be broken?
Need your comments.
"Thunderously",
Michael =;-)
P.S. - I hope National Geographic Channel will make a documentary out of these rare ones including Mediterranean Cyclones.
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 14:40 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Michael and all,
I have been flat out today gathering all of our discussions into one place and progressively adding it to http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm   for future reference.
I am removing everybody's e-mail addresses and personal references.
If anyone has other pictures or obs that ought to be kept here for the future, please send them to me noting the time and date so I can best place them on the page.
Thanks,
Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:01 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Michael and all,
I have just added the words "[unofficial name]" after the name "Aldonça" on my page.
When I get a chance to write a bit more of a summary at the top of the page, I shall mention how it got its unofficial name.
Phil
<><
-----Original Message-----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)"
[snip]
> What do you think Phil? Are we going to remove ALDONÇA?
> Please advise...
> Michael =;-)

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:08 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Come on you guys...my name is as good as anyone else's. There is NO official forecast agency, so first come first serve.
Aldonça it is!
Roger

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:25 Subject: ALDONÇA (Fwd: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting 22nd May)
That name is sure getting around! See the attached notice for the next ASWA meeting:
Phil
<><
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "ASWA Victoria" To: "Aussie-wx"
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 2004 17:23:40 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting 22nd May
Put it in your diary...updates to follow. This will be a great meeting!!
---------------------------------------->>>
The next Victorian ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday May 22 at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster Road, Doncaster beginning at ~8.30am with breakfast and bragging (bring your photos and well as your appetite).
Presentations will commence ~9.45am
[snip].
**Presentations**
- Tropical oddities
TC Vamei - a near equator typhoon (December 2001)
Hurricane Aldonça - first known South Atlantic hurricane of modern times (March 2004)
- Pictorial history of TC Fay - A Lethal Slowcoach
- Special Guest Speaker - Kevin Parkyn (Manager, Severe Weather, BoM Melbourne)
[snip]
Regards your state reps,
Clyve Herbert & Andrew McDonald
[snip]

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:35 Subject: Reuters Report on Aldonça
Hi,
Again, another report, from Reuters this time. See they took the CNN report with the interview with Eric, but went one step forward and contacted the Brazilians.
I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
and: 'not very unusual' and 'no preparations were made'
BUT, to be realistic, I figure that with a skimpy thing like this TC under these kinds of tenuous environmental condition, it would almost be a miracle for this thing to reach the coast. AND THEN, it has to 'hit' something that would have people take notice (remember my previous comment on STC Fay!!).
Which also brings back my point for lack of previous data--either no reports or no one knew (prior to the satellite era knew what hit them).
Oh well.
Roger
He said the storm was a Category 1 hurricane -- the least powerful on forecasters' five-level scale -- with winds somewhere between 74 and 95 miles per hour.
"It's about 225 miles east-southeast of the Brazilian coast and it's moving westward at about 7 miles per hour," he said.
Blake said some of the forecasting computer models showed the storm turning away from the coast before making landfall, but he said it was too soon to say if
that would happen.
"It has an eye and thunderstorms around the centre, and we're looking at the possibility of (landfall in) southeast Brazil sometime tomorrow or the next day," he said.
However, Brazil's state Weather Forecasting and Climatic Studies Centre (CPTEC) played down the U.S. hurricane classification.
"Our information shows that it is not a hurricane. We still classify it as a tropical cyclone," Virginia Nogueira, a duty meteorologist, told Reuters.
"The forecast is that it will come closer to the coast, provoking rains in the southern states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and strong winds, but not causing anything very unusual," she said.
Ports in southern Brazil said earlier no preparations were being made for the storm and work continued as usual.

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 18:25 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Dear Jack,
Any plans of initiating Public Warnings either by NHC or INMET?
Thanks,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:02 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Matthew wrote:
> I notice that our rare bird has been given "01L" by NLMRY, yet no name from the "L" list. By rights, it should be "Alex", to go with 01L. I wonder if NLMRY's use of 01L is going to affect NHC's numbering when the NATL becomes active? But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?
Agree that Julian's 01T designator is better than 01L, since the "L" suffixes have heretofore been only used with North Atlantic systems. Certainly don't think it should have been Alex as that is a North Atlantic name to be applied by NHC, who has no warning responsibility for the South Atlantic.
> BTW, I'll go with "Aldonça", unless it's officially decided to name the poor thing from the NATL list.
So far the suggested names I've seen are: Aldonça, Alcides, Adam, Alpha, Advent, so take your pick.
> And I'm beginning to wonder -- now that it seems it's been acknowledged the SATL does spawn TC's, when will we see our first-ever cross-equatorial Atlantic twin? Now, that would be something! Anything's possible...
Well, not with high-latitude systems such as this. Those only occur with very low-latitude systems in a monsoon trough.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:07 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Here is a table with coordinates of Brazilian cities;
http://www.world-gazetteer.com/fr/fr_br.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph (Michael Padua)"
> Dear Jim, Phil and All,
[snip]
> Phil, I'm now creating a tracking chart which I used for the NWP TCs... Btw can you please give me the exact coordinates of some of the Brazilian cities  near the coast which might get affected by ALDONÇA, if you're not busy?
> Will be waiting for it...
> Cheers,
> Michael =;-)

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:11 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> > The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
> > Jim
> In which case it begs the question: Why are they using the code-letter for the "wrong" basin? Calling it 01L is going to get it confused with North Atlantic TC's, I would think. Any comments, anyone?
That was NRL's way of designating it, and they had to have a letter to follow the number, and since there was no military reg covering the South Atlantic, they just used "L". Note that NHC does not use "L" in their warnings for North Atlantic cyclones.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:20 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track
Michael,
Thanks for creating that. Keep it updated.
Gary
----- Original Message -----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph (Michael Padua)"
> Dear Phil and all,
> Just uploaded over my site the tracking of Aldonça (01T) {also attached on this e-mail}. This is based on SSD positions plus the data I acquired thru the NRL site.
> Regards,
> Michael =;-)
> "Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:22 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track (Herald Article)
>P.S. II -- I can't believe no one's written up "Samba" yet, from last month(?)...
"Samba" will be written up for the January summary.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:44 Subject: Re: Reuters Report on Aldonça
> I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
> and: 'not very unusual' and 'no preparations were made'
That attitude could be due to two reasons:
(1) They truly don't believe (or want to believe) that they can have tropical cyclones in their neck of the woods, and since they've obviously had no experience with them, it's easy to take an off-hand approach.
(2) Or it could be they're afraid of mass panic if the dreaded H-word is used. I once was acquainted with a former AF meteorologist at Eglin who'd been stationed somewhere in Europe when the Sept, 1983, Med. hurricane formed. It posed a threat to Italy, and he told me that the Italian met. service pleaded with them not to call it a hurricane.
Most people who've never dealt with and don't follow hurricanes automatically think a hurricane means damage like Andrew or Hugo or Camille.

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 20:00 Subject: ALDONÇA Enhanced NRL Image
Dear All,
As the Sun rose along the Brazilian Coast, I enhanced today's first NRL VIS GOES-12 Image of 01L. The result: An spectacular image!!!
Enjoy the view!
Thunderously,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 20:05 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Thanks Gary,
The site is cool. [snip]
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gary Padgett"
> Here is a table with coordinates of Brazilian cities;
http://www.world-gazetteer.com/fr/fr_br.htm

From: "huangchunliang" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 21:07 Subject: RE: VAMEI and 01T: The Law Breakers!!!
I'm glorying in my being the one who has first (at least in our group) discovered both the supernatuals when they're still babies :))
Not too bad for the Portuguese name "ALDONÇA", though it appears to be a challenge for my tongue to pronounce the word...what about "HUANG"? Seems much better IMO...just kidding! :p
To be serious, "VAMEI" has turned out to be the first typhoon name that was retired for its breaking the "physical laws", which presents a striking contrast to 01T, for which we have to face a Fine How-Do-You-Do now that the current law-breaker rotating to her heart's content over the "unseemly" water has never any official name to be retired!!!
Cheers,
Huang Chunliang
>From: "Michael V. Padua"
>Dear All,
>As we have seen the turn of the century, 2 unique TCs has broken the Law of TC formation. VAMEI and 01T (ALDONÇA). Are there still laws that meant to be broken?
>Need your comments.
>"Thunderously",
>Michael =;-)

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 21:08 Subject: ALDONÇA/01T Track#02 [06Z 27 March 2004]
Dear Guys,
Attached/Link is the latest Track for ALDONÇA....
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip]  Cc: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 22:13 Subject: South Atlantic Hurricane Nears Land
Hi all,
Attached is the latest Visible/IR image. I have overlayed 4 positions showing the general track of the hurricane over the last 24 hours.
On the image you will see where Porto Alegre is. I have included the following information about the city. The info is from the following site
http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~sergiok/brasil/portoalegre.html
"Porto Alegre, the largest city in southern Brazil, is the capital of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, land of the Gauchos, and churrasco. The city, located on the Guaiba River, was founded in 1742 by immigrants from the Azores. Since the 19th century the city has received numerous from other parts of the world, particularly Germany, Poland, and Italy. Located at the junction of five rivers, it has become an important alluvial port as well as one of the chief industrial and commercial centres in Brazil. With the advent of the Mercosul accord it should grow and prosper. Products of the rich agricultural and pastoral hinterland, such as soybeans, leather, canned beef, and rice, are exported from Porto Alegre to destinations as far away as Africa and Japan. It has a population of about 1,500,000 inhabitants."
Again here are a couple of Satellite Loops:
****RGB Loop**** http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
Visible Loop  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Also:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation)  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation)  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:19 Subject: RE: Reuters Report on Aldonça
I really started laughing when I saw the quote as well.. It sounded like some standard government line reassuring people that it is not a hurricane... they do not know what they are getting into, especially if it hits Porto Alegre. A quickie extrapolation puts it on the coast tomorrow morning. Upper-level winds don't look unfavourable... less than 10 kt.. so there is no apparent reason it would weaken while straddling the 74F isotherm.
Eric
>From: Roger Edson
[snip]
>I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
[snip]
>Roger

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:25 Subject: RE: name
I think Roger's idea is reasonable... but ALDONÇA will never fly, especially if it has not been okayed by the WMO or some regional weather authority.
Hell Brazil will probably not admit it (was) a hurricane. The unnamed March hurricane of March 2003 will all it goes by-- my prediction. You just can't go naming things without authority. Maybe this system will inspire some agency to issue advisories... there is talk about studying it at TPC.
Eric
>From: "Phil Smith"
>That name is sure getting around! See the attached notice for the next ASWA meeting:
>Phil

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:50 Subject: RE: name
As for the name 'flying' who cares....
Since there is NO official TC forecast centre in the S. Atlantic, there can be no official name (so, no authority is necessary).
I don't think any of the JTWC names were ever 'officially' oked by anyone but our little group---and then they went to the Navy at the CINCPAC commanders conference: how else did we get Typhoons Frank, Babs, Mark, Chip.....etc etc etc.
Anyway, I might have been wrong thinking the darn thing would weaken, since it is still going strong...
Here is the Brazilian weather site, and the local radar for the area (but can't figure out if the radar at Morro da Igreja is up or not):
http://www.redemet.aer.mil.br/radar_novo.php?radar=morro_da_igreja
BTW, I have a tentative best track for the entire life of the system...from when it moved off the coast on the 20th at 25S 48W (as an extratropical low), to when it got cut off on the 22nd at 32S 36W, to when it reached a 'good enough' tropical characteristic to be classified at 25/06Z at 29.0S 40.5W.
Roger
--- Eric Blake [snip] wrote:
> I think Roger's idea is reasonable... but ALDONÇA ...

Sunday 28th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:06 Subject: s atlc hur/global pattern
thanks for the radar link... it will be obviously later today I suppose if it is working..
as far as weakening goes.. there is nothing on the large-scale GFS model that would kill it immediately... it is sitting under a ridge axis... the only concern is that the shear would become southwesterly, but less than 20 kt.. and I suppose marginal systems could be affecting more significantly than other TC events.
I'd like to save your best track if TPC eventually writes this system up..
also... I think is peculiar to look at all the lows around 30n over the globe right now.. a system NW of the canary islands.. something forming in the w-central atlc... something NW of Hawaii.. I wonder how it is all connected. there is even a hint of something extra-tropical dropping to about 30n in the GFS and hanging around.. at about 50-60w.. that would be an interesting "twin" situation! (highly unlikely)

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:09 Subject: Initial image of Aldonça
Hi,
Just a taste...
Here is a nice visual of the low pressure/vort area coming off of the coast of Brazil on the 20th. The scat is from 8 hours later....
The surface low formed on/along the coast 24 hours earlier further south and then moved northward following the coast until it finally moved off (like many of extratropical system). It did not look very tropical until after 25/06Z as the frontal boundary further equatorward looked pretty vigorous.
Roger

From: Dickson Fu To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:18 Subject: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Hi all,
let's look at this. The local authority said it's actually an "extra-tropical cyclone". What do you think?
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/brazil.hurricane.ap/index.html
Regards,
Dickson

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:23 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Definitely a case of 'looks like a duck'....
(Boy, Eric, I hope you don't get into trouble on this...) I hate those 'quotes'...
Roger

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:26 Subject: RE: name
Given that ALDONÇA is now being used in some public discussion forums, and is already on a few websites, the chances of the mainstream media picking it up somewhere increase by the hour. If it does clobber Brazil and the media get hold of the name, it will flash round the globe in a few hours and become the public name, even if 'the authorities' stick their heads in the sand and refuse to acknowledge it.
Regards,
Carl.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: "TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:05 Subject: KGWC Dvorak Estimate Now to T5.0 for S ATL TC
TPNT KGWC 271525
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
B. 27/1431Z (19)
C. 29.5S/6
D. 46.8W/8
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS -27/1130Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
07A/ PBO 20NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN.
RUNDIO
Note how they avoided any number-letter assignment! Probably a good idea for now!
"Tropical Cyclone" is used instead of "Hurricane" as well. Leaves it a bit open ended (TD, TS, or Hur?), again probably a good idea until we see exactly how this all pans out.
Here is a great GOES-12 visible image from Friday. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCunknown086_G12.jpg
Boris

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:11 Subject: Re: name
Roger,
> BTW, I have a tentative best track for the entire life of the system...from when it moved off the coast on the 20th at 25S 48W (as an extratropical low), to when it got cut off on the 22nd at 32S 36W, to when it reached a 'good enough' tropical characteristic to be classified at 25/06Z at 29.0S 40.5W.
Would appreciate if you'd send it to me. I've got a partial best track from David starting on the 22nd.
Tks,
Gary

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:20 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
It's laughable. That article said the storm has already hit the coast, when the centre is clearly still well at sea. What experience has the meteorologist that was quoted in tropical cyclone analysis? Likely zip. And of course there are probably some scientists who would hesitate to call any system of extratropical origin a tropical cyclone. It took forecasters at NHC several years to begin doing so in the late 1960s/early 1970s.
----- Original Message -----
> let's look at this. The local authority said it's actually an "extra-tropical cyclone". What do you think?
> http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/brazil.hurricane.ap/index.html
> Regards,
> Dickson

From: "DinanR" [Brazilian e-mail address] To: "Phil Smith"
Sent: Sunday, March 28, 2004 1:33 AM Subject: Storm name in Brazil (not received until about 03/28/2004 21:00)
Here in Brazil the storm is called " Catarina" .
Dinan

From: "David Roth" To: garyp@[snip]
Date: 03/28/2004 01:52 Subject: The ongoing hurricane nearing Brazil
Wish I was on day shifts...you never know if one of their meteorologists actually went through a tour at HPC's International Desk. Regardless, this is probably something new to them. It's a shame they've been thrown into the heat of the kitchen without any apparent preparation.
When I get some time after the surface analysis pow-wow in early April, it could be timely to take a look at the South American slices of the GOES East imagery we (at the WWB, SAB archive) has in archive downstairs, which overall spans from about 1980 to 1995. If I find something similar during my fishing expedition, I'll let you all know
and scan/post/link to the image.
I'm sure this is unusual...not something that happens every year...but I think this had to have happened before just like others on the group...perhaps not hitting land. I remember a couple "short timers" here who used to work for SAB long ago mentioning one of these TC-like creatures being spotted in the south Atlantic around the mid 1970s. One is now retired...the other retires in a month. Will have to dig for more info.
I know SAB is interested in doing a paper or study on this storm as well and has been collecting all the imagery it can for this event.  I'm certainly intrigued due to its occluded cyclone/subtropical origins; looks like a typical transition like what Olga and Kyle went through in 2002. It's nice to know converted STs rarely become major hurricanes, in the North Atlantic anyway.
Looking forward to the South Atlantic Hurricane conference next spring (jk),
DR

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 02:00 Subject: Re: s atlc hur/global pattern
I totally agree with Roger. The name? Is it so important?
Brazil would not agree to name it for whatever reasons and now they reckon it is not tropical.
The number and the ocean basin are what matter.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 02:08 Subject: Re: RE: Reuters Report on Aldonça
I suspect there is more to it and it bowls down to politics (?) again or at least prejudices.
As the bulk of the interest and analysis are coming from the US (NAVY) it may be irritating especially to Brazil ...
They probably do not want to be lectured on but when you do not really know what you are talking about you should rely on other people's well recognized expertise.
Patrick

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 02:45 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Hi all,
What experience does this supposed scientist have, in Brazil, to call this hurricane an "extra tropical cyclone."
I don't think there is any debate that this is a hurricane. It may have come from extra tropical origins but it definitely is a hurricane right now (see attached picture.) Note, this hurricane could be a lot stronger than the conservative estimate of 85mph.
Regards,
Adrian

From: "Bill Ward" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 03:10 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Adrian,
Please be careful with how you address people, you never know who you are addressing. It is amazing how far reaching e-mail can be. Everyone has their own opinion. The best we can do as a group or as scientists is to prove things to others scientifically and professionally. It certainly looks and acts like a hurricane. I haven't done a Dvorak analysis on it as of yet or seen true observed data either, so I will sit back and wait to see what comes in. This cyclone will be looked at and commented on for years to come...not to mention the great number of research papers that will be forth coming.
Thanks for listening,
Bill

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 04:34 Subject: Re: The ongoing hurricane nearing Brazil
David Roth wrote:
> When I get some time after the surface analysis pow-wow in early April, it could be timely to take a look at the South American slices of the GOES East imagery we (at the WWB, SAB archive) has in archive downstairs, which overall spans from about 1980 to 1995. If I find something similar during my fishing expedition, I'll let you all know and scan/post/link to the image.
Great idea!!
> I'm sure this is unusual...not something that happens every year...but I think this had to have happened before just like others on the group...perhaps not hitting land. I remember a couple "short timers" here who used to work for SAB long ago mentioning one of these TC-like creatures being spotted in the south Atlantic around the mid 1970s. One is now retired...the other retires in a month. Will have to dig for more info.
It's been a long time, but I distinctly remember sometime around late 1975/early 1976, listening to some meteorologist talking with the TV weatherman on an area station, and he stated that there'd been a hurricane observed in the South Atlantic Ocean. That was all that was said and I never learned anymore details. I eventually just filed it away as an error until April, 1991 happened.
> I know SAB is interested in doing a paper or study on this storm as well and has been collecting all the imagery it can for this event. I'm certainly intrigued due to its occluded cyclone/subtropical origins; looks like a typical transition like what Olga and Kyle went through in 2002. It's nice to know converted STs rarely become major hurricanes, in the North Atlantic anyway.
Olga was in 2001. :)
> Looking forward to the South Atlantic Hurricane conference next spring (jk),
Let's have one, maybe in Ft. Walton Beach. I'll make all the arrangements. :)

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 05:44 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
I'll have to respectfully disagree with you Bill...
Both SAB and TAFB are classifying the system as T4.5, meaning 77 knots sustained. Independent microwave estimates put the pressure at around 980 mb. This is a classic transition of a baroclinic features into a tropical one, similar to Karen of ... 2001 I believe. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001karen.html
Scatterometer data also shows a tight wind centre. I think 99% of hurricane experts would say that this is a hurricane. I think the major problem is that they have never seen anything quite this and people are scrambling. I really hope it doesn't hit at this intensity otherwise I fear people living on the coast could be in some danger from the surge.
Eric

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 06:44 Subject: Re: name
Will do...when I finish it (already spent too much time on this thing...) roger
--- Gary Padgett <garyp wrote:
> Roger,
[snip]
> Would appreciate if you'd send it to me. I've got a partial best track from David starting on the 22nd.
> Tks,
> Gary

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 06:57 Subject: TC 01T
I have managed to complete my MI database for this South Atlantic TC, thanks to FNMOC and Monterey although it is a pity the archive only begin by early 26.
The very latest overpass from F13 a little more than 1h ago seems unequivocal . This definitely looks like a TC albeit the tops around the eye do not appear to be very cold.
Torres (29.3s 49.7w) would be the synop to watch but it has not been updated since 12UTC, 15 local.
Patrick
Updated: 3:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 78 °F / 26 °C
Humidity 77%
Dew Point 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind South at 16 mph / 25.7 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.88 in / 1012 hPa
Conditions Haze
Visibility 2.49 miles / 4.00 kilometres

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 07:02 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Agree with Eric!
There are people out there that still want 'proof' that we landed on the moon!
Roger
--- Eric Blake  wrote:
> I'll have to respectfully disagree with you Bill...

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 07:06 Subject: Re: TC 01T
NOW for a meteorological question:
Is it possible that the 'pattern' in either the EIR or MI will not produce the same winds, IF the tops (convection) are not as vigorous as compared to the Dvorak data base?
(fortunately don't have to worry about this in either the scatterometer or AMSU temp data).
quack quack (duck)
Roger

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 08:48 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Thanks Gary,
Just woke up and oh boy... we got another invest area near 160E...That will be cool... For the meantime, our attention is now on 01T. It is now approaching Porto Alegre! Will do some tracking later.
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "TC Group"
Date: 03/28/2004 09:52 Subject: Will NHC send Investigation Team to Brazil?
Hi Jack and Eric,
Are there plans of going to Brazil to investigate the areas soon to be struck by this rare TC?
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip] Cc: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:00 Subject: South Atlantic Hurricane -- Landfall Imminent! -- Coastal Cities Map
Hi all,
With landfall just a few hours away, I have attached a coastal cities map of the threatened area.
Also here is the latest Colour IR Animation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Regards,
Adrian

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:19 Subject: Re: South Atlantic Hurricane -- Landfall Imminent! -- Coastal Cities Map
Thanks for that nice map/sat attachments! It looks like Ararangua and Sombrio will feel the fury of this storm!
Will see!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:26 Subject: TC 01T
last two MI positions:
AQUA1 at 1630UTC: 29.5s 47.2w
F14 at 2253utc : 29.5s 48.1w
The estimated intensity is now set at 75kt.
Torres is reacting to the approaching TC but will the cyclone make landfall( let's presume it will make landfall in the first place) too far to the south of the town. The winds have already shifted to the SW there.
Is anybody kind enough to point out to me the radar link?
Thanks
Patrick
Updated: 9:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 72 °F / 22 °C
Humidity 94%
Dew Point 71 °F / 21 °C
Wind SW at 20 mph / 32.2 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.80 in / 1009 hPa
Conditions Overcast
Visibility 1.24 miles / 2.00 kilometres

Updated: 3:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 78 °F / 26 °C
Humidity 77%
Dew Point 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind South at 16 mph / 25.7 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.88 in / 1012 hPa
Conditions Haze
Visibility 2.49 miles / 4.00 kilometres

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:51 Subject: Re: TC 01T
It was mentioned that MODIS captured the cyclone on the 26th at 1310utc; the image is in the gallery on the site. But if you go to the real time section for the same date and time you will be able to download colorized versions of the visible which are beautiful.
Patrick
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?2004086/crefl1_367.A2004086131000-2004086131500.1km.jpg
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?2004086/crefl1_721.A2004086131000-2004086131500.1km.jpg

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: "TC Group"
Date: 03/28/2004 11:00 Subject: ALDONÇA/01T Track #03 [23:09 UTC 27 March 2004]
Hi all,
Typhoon2000.com Track #03 of the Brazilian Hurricane as it nears Torres, Brazil...
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:08 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA/01T Track #03 [23:09 UTC 27 March 2004]
Well done Mike.
Cheers
Patrick

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:09 Subject: Fwd: Hurricane Aldonça (01T) landfall
(again, also sent to our tropical bulletin board--same 'warning', though)
btw, the radar site I gave was not updating
Roger
> Hi,
> Please remember the name (Aldonça)and number (01T) are not 'official' (but my choice...). Since this is a 'closed' e-mail list, I assume that this stays within our group--only!
> If you speak Portuguese, here is their MET offices' latest 'warning':
> Aviso Meteorológico Especial